By Steve Laing
Jennifer Wilson has written an excellent piece today on this particular story which I commend you to read, but I’d like to also ask you to consider it from the perspective of the capability of our government to undertake one of their key responsibilities – doing deals with other countries.
This week we witnessed a brand new diplomatic reality where the rule book has very truly been completely thrown out the window, leaving the behind the scenes non-combatants on both sides desperately trying to patch up the disaster caused by two “business men” who claim to know that they are both successful and clever. What a total joke.
The deal with the US to take some of the refugees from Manus and Nauru was a bad one in the first place. But to insist that it be honoured once Trump was elected was stupid beyond belief given his very public statements about refugees and immigrants, particularly those of a middle-eastern heritage.
As any capable negotiator will tell you, when negotiating any kind of deal, it is vital to have a BATNA, the ‘Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement’. Essentially what will you do if the deal you want won’t be accepted. Having no back-up plan leaves you very exposed if things change, and significantly undermines your negotiation position.
When the loose cannon became president-elect, a smart Australian government would have read the tea-leaves and taken the opportunity to step back and renegotiate the deal, because by pushing it through as they have done, they have managed to do exactly the opposite of what was intended, namely to significantly piss off the key person who represents arguably our most important security ally.
Now whilst it is true that the Turnbull government desperately wanted an opportunity to get out of the corner they have dug themselves with their gulags; and whilst Obama was happy to give them the opportunity, (because that’s what you do for your political allies – give them a chance to save some face domestically); the Turnbull government should have realized that this deal for Mr Trump would be about as popular as a turd in a swimming pool, and instead of pushing on, instead taken a serious rethink about their long-term strategy with these new facts in mind.
But instead, being desperate and having no BATNA, they hammered home on the deal, using a mechanism that might have worked when dealing with an honourable (and sensible) politician which is that when negotiated in good faith, you honour the deal agreed to by your predecessor. Unsurprisingly it has turned to shit.
The fact that it backfired spectacularly in Turnbull’s face revealed his business (indeed political and diplomatic) skills – somewhat sparse. Like Trump, Turnbull is used to negotiating from a position of power. Doing deals from that position makes negotiating bloody easy! You just turn the screws and you will get the deal you want. But in this deal, Australia is not the bigger partner. And Trump, being the larger partner, will inevitably achieve an outcome from this debacle that will be significantly in his favour. Trump now very clearly holds the cards, which he will play exactly as he wishes. He may agree to it (using the excuse that Obama had done it to save face at home), but he will want far more than a pound of flesh in return. In this situation, Australia’s most sensible approach would be to take the deal off the table, and start again – that is, and should always have been the BATNA, and it should now be put into play. But it won’t happen, because when it comes to doing deals, we are represented by the rankest of amateurs.
And in the background we have Whiney Pyne, and indeed other cabinet members, working hard, trying to polish this most foul of turds. ‘Turnbull is looking after Australia’s interests’ apparently. So pissing off your most powerful ally is looking after our interests, is it? First time I’ve heard that was a positive outcome.
As expected, this latest debacle in the ongoing series of cockwombling clusterflucks, is purely due to the laziness and incompetence of this government. Turnbull entirely deserves all the opprobrium he has garnered from this shamozl, but at what cost to Australia? And if this is the level of negotiating skills that our government ministers have, what exactly have we signed up for in the trade deals with China, South Korea and Japan? If there is perhaps one saving grace, and that is that the TPP is dead in the water. But it would be fair to conclude that in the rush to get agreements signed at whatever cost, we have been completely and comprehensively dudded.
