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Newspoll: 50/50 – Will it get any better?

A month ago, Newspoll had the two major parties 53-47 in favour of the Coalition.

Now, courtesy of The Poll Bludger we find from the latest polls that:

The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 41% and Labor is up three to 36%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 3%.

Scott Morrison’s still-healthy personal ratings are down on the last three weeks ago, with approval at 64% (down four) and disapproval on 32% (up three). Anthony Albanese is up on both approval, by two points to 43%, and disapproval, by three points to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 58-29, in from 60-25.

What does it all tell you? Well it tells you that things can only get worse for the Coalition. As unemployment increases and the “to let” signs gradually appear on the shop fronts and factories, the Prime Minister’s tendency towards plain bullshit and lying will become ever more present.

Last week showed us just how jittery the Prime Minister – who doesn’t like criticism – really is. He doesn’t seem to think that hundreds of deaths in nursing homes is any fault of his or that his totally un-reasoned diplomacy on China should stand up to scrutiny.

Do you ever analyse what’s happening politically in our country, and abroad and just what the voice of the people is saying about it? By the ‘voice’ I mean the ‘Fourth Estate’ (the mainstream media).

Unfortunately, our lives have become controlled by the noise of this mass media. The sad thing is … that we listen.

Obviously, the aforementioned poll numbers only tell us what the electorate is thinking at that moment, not how they would vote if an election were held today.

As unemployment rises (and it certainly will), business failures and bankruptcies will rise with it and the Coalition’s chances of retaining government will decline.

“This is the recession we had to have.” Paul Keating immortalised that line 30 years ago on November 29, 1990.

There were business failures and bankruptcies. Australia relied on high levels of population growth to prop up consumption and demand, but immigration is a no no in the current circumstances

COVID-19 will be with us for some time, yet, says economist Dr Richard Denniss of The Australia Institute:

“In response to COVID-19, ‘we’ve seen the biggest reduction in population growth since World War II at the same time as the economy is rapidly slowing,’ … as overseas students and immigrant workers have stopped arriving.”

The concern at the moment is that the recession caused by Coalition policies prior to the pandemic, and worsened by it, will be so deep that any hope of coming out of it in the short-term will be about as hopeful as Frydenberg winning the player’s sprint on AFL grand final day.

We can sometimes become so engrossed in our own problems that we can easily overlook the enormity of the suffering of others.

At the moment the Coalition could (reading between the lines) be accused of willingly seeing more old people die in order to get the economy moving again.

When rates, wage rates and operating costs fall low enough that investors decide it’s a good time to invest again then recessions are given a chance of ending and that is what the government is trying to do. Everything is couched in lethargy.

Keeping pensions stagnant, wages low and welfare payments even lower will encourage investment.

Touching subsidies for the rich and privileged will be off limits. Instead they are hoping for a lift in what the famous economist, John Maynard Keynes, called the “animal spirits.”

“The hope is that our “animal spirits” will surge as the lockdown is lifted and liberated citizens eat, drink and be merry — causing the economy to “snap back”, to use Prime Minister Morrison’s phrase.”

Recessions are not just economic occurrences with dire consequences. They carry with them societal hardship; not only do they wreck economies but lives as well. Families under pressure often fall apart, while others battle their way through but become the dregs of society. Relationships become battlefields and people get hurt.

When we go out of our way to help someone less fortunate, we cannot avoid helping ourselves.

Domestic violence has its way and women suffer its misery.

Recessions such as this are slow to recover, change lives and change societies in ways that are often miserable.

Conservative politicians have never had any sort of empathy that would enable them to understand that an economy comes about because a society requires certain elements for it to function or let me put it this way.

The Liberal Party has always been a party of elites and would be’s. The idea that economics and society are intertwined is abhorrent to them. Economics is the domain of the rich and privileged, and society belongs to those of class and privilege.

My thought for the day

For the life of me I fail to understand how anyone could vote for a party who thinks the existing education, aged care and health systems are adequately funded and addresses the needs of the disadvantaged.

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7 comments

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  1. wam

    The pool was bloody cold this morning, lord but goose stepping through this ileftie causerie was warming. There is 3 years before the next challenge “For the life of me I fail to understand how anyone could vote for a party,,,”
    For older experienced watchers of ‘marking the ballot’ there are rusted in supporters of of the 3 big parties and 15% for the extremist parties.
    That leaves the floaters who decide the election, They vote labor when a hawke or whitlam or the lemon appears and they nearly voted for the woman but an idiot in nth qld and mills in darwin stopped the win.
    But they are easily spooked by last minute emergencies. Dismissals, cakes, WoMD, children thrown overboard and debt.
    All simple slogans with complex rebutting.
    Who is going to believe the shit these people heaped on the voters before 2020?
    Who will ‘bolt’ in???
    ps how the ^^@%@^ did the rabbott get to talk on the economy that man being given airtime show how little I know about the media

  2. Terence Mills

    On a purely objective basis with Morrison hogging the COVID limelight and excluding the federal opposition from the National cabinet, it’s quite surprising that anybody knows who Labor are or what they stand for in a Newspoll survey.

  3. Jack Cade

    Polls are no longer credible in Australia. News poll exists purely to warn the Coalition that they are slipping and might need an AFP raid soon, or a Greens caravan.
    The Adelaide Advertiser – the birthplace of Newscorp and absolutely irrelevant as a ‘newspaper’, claims this morning (I haven’t actually read it, I get its headlines in an email newsfeed) that $44 billion paid to the ‘Aged Care’ industry (I’ve put it in inverted commas because the aged care industry doesn’t actually care) cannot be traced… The headline goes on to say ‘News Corp launches a campaign to di…’
    And there the feed ends. What does the pregnant ‘di…’ go on to say?
    Divert?
    Disclose?
    Discuss?
    Distort?
    Dispute?
    Disseminate?
    Dish out?

    Anything but investigate, I’ll warrant.
    I may be going out on a limb here, but I’ll bet the $44 billion hasn’t been paid out in wages.
    Not to the employees, anyway.

  4. Win Jeavons

    So long as we rely on growth, whether of population or of consumption, we are heading for a cliff. It is just a matter of when, and how far the drop. You can keep climbing a mountain, but what happens when you reach the top? Scientists know that infinity is not in the equation, apparently old style economists do not. We should use this hiatus in ‘ normal’ life to seriously reassess where we want to go, and what is realistic for our future , given we have a huge unresolved threat hanging over us already, caused largely by our growth mania. Climate disruption, not a one off event as a plague might be, but a continuing churn .

  5. wam

    Just had a a great breakfast with my son, 43 years old married into a sea of clp and service culture of fear. before dropping him at work.
    His sage like cynicism for his old dad.
    Stop with the extremist bashing, millions voted for this government in the other 149 seats and they deserve what they are getting.
    He then spoke about an assignment where is daughter included a graph. Then teacher could have praised her effort as she was the only girls with a graph but she was embarrassed in front of the class by being accused of not doing her own work. ie of cheating.
    My son was irrate when he pointed out that if the teachers had look at the plans submitted he would have seen the graph.
    So instead of praise for effort she got shamed.
    Any guess for which political party this teacher’s family are prominent supporters?

  6. jamie

    who cares bouts these 2 spoiled crim corporate spivs. 2 white fat turkey throats who’d cut your throat any day of the week for their corporate MASTAHS!!! FUG ‘EM BOTH!!! Scourndrels beholden to corporate rapists, murderers and pilagers!!! FUG EM BOTH!!!

  7. Andreas Bimba

    [Excerpts from Professor Bill Mitchell’s latest blog post]

    Australian economy collapses and the federal government goes missing

    So with total GDP falling 7 per cent and government spending contributing just 0.6 percentage points, you get an idea of how far short the fiscal intervention has been.

    Even with a massive household credit binge and a once-in-a-hundred-years mining boom that was pushed by stratospheric movements in our terms of trade, our real GDP growth has declined substantially below the long-term performance.

    The pre-Pandemic growth performance was already weak, a point that the Government should recognise when calibrating the appropriate size of the stimulus to deal with the health crisis.

    The declining share of wages historically is a product of neoliberalism and will ultimately have to be reversed if Australia is to enjoy sustainable rises in standards of living without record levels of household debt being relied on for consumption growth.

    Remember that the National Accounts data is three months old – a rear-vision view – of what has passed and to use it to predict future trends is not straightforward.

    The decline in real GDP growth in the June-quarter is massive but the September-quarter is likely to be of a similar scale, given the harsh lockdowns since June in Victoria.

    The government support has clearly not be sufficient to offset the massive decline in private spending and that is why the economy has taken the largest fall since the 1930s.

    A major shift in fiscal policy towards further expansion is definitely required – now and big.

    And what is the government doing? They have announced this week they are cutting financial support.

    Expectation: carnage.

    ……………………..

    You won’t hear much about this basic truth in the mainstream media. The inadequate response by the Australian federal government to the Covid-19 pandemic induced economic shut down will cause significant permanent damage to the lives of the Australian people and to most businesses which will harm living standards for many years to come.

    The federal government’s weak fiscal response is totally unnecessary as the federal government using the RBA, is the issuer of the currency and can not only counter such recessions but ensure full employment is always maintained without incurring any debt. The full employment condition also ensures that considerable additional fiscal capacity is made available to the federal government for more spending on other urgent needs and/or well targeted tax cuts and/or increased funding support for state and local governments who are all severely fiscally constrained at the moment.

    The neoliberal ideologues in the current ultra conservative federal government have done just enough to ensure the stock markets don’t fall significantly but have failed the Australian people, yet again.

    How can we have full employment?

    http://www.billmitchell.org/Job_Guarantee.php

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