By Newman Fergard
Given Angus Taylor’s figures have at times been rubbery (ref: Clover Moore’s travel “spend”) and the following based on figures published by the LNP government, this might not be accurate but the concept can be updated with real numbers when available. If you take a look at the 2019-20 tab you will see what I mean about rubbery – some of the reversals (minus figures) don’t make sense.
If we are going to reach net 0, we effectively have to stop taking fossil fuels out of the ground. That includes stopping the LNP “technology not taxes” concept of extracting fossil fuels, burning them in oxygen from the atmosphere and “most” of the resultant CO2 (supposedly) “sequestered” underground, because it (CCS) doesn’t work. While greenhouse gas emissions are the driver to “Human Induced Climate Change” the source is largely dominated by those associated with energy use, however other significant sources such as agriculture, etc. need to be addressed.
Energy – How is it measured?
Energy is measured in units of Joules. Energy used/produced in a period of time is a measure of power in Watts, where 1 Joule per second = 1 Watt, therefore a Watt-hour = 3,600 Joules. Residential consumption of electricity is measured/billed in kilowatt hours (20c to ???). (Ref: link to prefix definitions.) Electricity generators / power stations are rated by their generation capacity. Where fossil fuelled, theoretically the full capacity is deliverable 24 x 7 x 365, but recently appears subject to cartel like behaviour – “scheduled maintenance” during winter or summer peaks with “outages” somehow fixed once the spot price is high enough).Their unit output is measured in megawatt hours and depending on the contract basis are paid circa $50 (5 cents per kilowatt hour) upwards to… well… almost “the sky is the limit” – capped at $15,100 per MWh (2021-22) – phew!
Quarterly volume weighted average spot prices – regions
To give some perspective, a power station like Liddell (due to close 2023), originally had a rated capacity of 2,000 megawatts. Each megawatt produced on an annualised basis = 24 x 365.25 = 8766 megawatt hours, so it was capable of 17.5 terawatt hours annually. Converted to joules: 17.5 x 1012 x 3.6 x 103 = 63.1 x 1015 Joules = 63.1 petajoules.
Energy Use
We use energy largely without thinking about the source, which comprises:
- Fossil fuels – Coal, Natural / CSG / LP gas and Crude oil and ORF
- Renewables: Liquid/gas biofuels, Biomass – wood and bagasse, Electricity – solar, wind and hydro and Solar Direct – solar hot water. No nuclear or geothermal.
The 2019–20 key numbers are Coal: 1706.6 PJ, Oil: 2241.2 PJ, Gas: 1647.2 and Renewables 418.8 PJ = total = 6013.8 PJ with an 18-month offset in reporting.
Worthy of mention is that while we consume 6,014 PJ, we mine over 20,000 PJ and export the other 14,000PJ. We are a significant global fossil fuel player.
There’s 27.5 years till 2050 and 27.5 years since 1995, so allowing for the offset the 1992 – 93 figures are used as the starting point, viz. 1642.6, 1491.7, 707.0 and 243.8, total = 4085.1 PJ with an increase of 47% to present. Surprisingly this shows that per capita energy use has largely remained the same as the population grew from 17.7 to 25.7 million, an increase of 45% in the same period.
For ease of calculation since we are trying to get an idea of the scale involved, lets assume that population and energy demand increase by similar ratios to 37.3 million and 8854 PJ.
The transition to renewables effectively means electrification of source, so by 2050 we will need to invest in 8854 (target) – 419 (current) = 8435PJ. As shown previously, 2 gigawatt continuous generation is 63.1PJ per annum, so 8435 PJ = 267 gigawatts of continuous generation capacity is required. (To make matters worse, renewables have approximately 35% delivery rate so 763 gigawatts on ground capacity is required.)
The GRID
Volumes could be written on how the last 20 (10 in particular) years have been wasted WRT the lack of design and funding to make the grid “renewable friendly.” It was not helped by climate change denial, lack of modelling of climate change impact on renewables positioning and lack of legislation for off-shore wind farms has left us playing catch-up.
Of concern is the lack of ”local-grid” planning to accommodate both rooftop solar and EVs, which might require some form of community storage.
The grid is currently structured around supplying users from fossil fuelled power stations, which will be progressively phased out. Unfortunately, most of the power stations are not at optimal “renewable” gathering locations. New transmission lines cost somewhere around $750K to $1M per km, so bringing the NT and WA into the current “National” grid is going to be expensive. However, compared to $38B wasted on job keeper overpayments we could have built 5 transmission lines between Sydney to Perth and Sydney to Darwin (3,300 and 3150km).
Make no mistake, significant (6 times capacity) upgrade to the grid is required if it is going to carry 267 gigawatts as opposed to the current 43 gigawatt generating capacity and unless it is given urgent focus will limit meeting emissions targets.
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