The federal government’s budget is due to be released on 9 May. Since assuming power in May 2022, the government released a budget in October that removed a lot of the excess and pandering to special interest groups that was inherent in the aptly abbreviated ATM (Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison) Coalition Government’s budgets of the previous decade. However, as they say in the murder mysteries, ‘investigations are continuing’ as other rorts and ideological funding decisions are being uncovered.
Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been leading the discussion around the number of ‘booby traps’ left for an incoming government by former Prime Minister Morrison and his Treasurer Frydenberg. They include the ‘Stage 3 Tax Cuts’ that are legislated for introduction from 1 July 2024. The ALP promised they would be implemented on time at the 2022 election which could be more an own goal than a booby trap. There has been some discussion about other issues including essential federal agencies that have had no funding in the forward estimates, declining Medicare bulk billing rates, clearly inadequate social security payments and blow outs in the NDIS – to name a few.
Chalmers and the Finance Minister, Katy Gallagher, undoubtedly do have a number of competing priorities they have to balance. As is normal practice, neither Chalmers, Gallagher or any other minister that might have an idea of what is in or out certainly won’t telling us ahead of time.
But the ALP came to power on promises of looking after the poor and dispossessed rather than the well off. They even agreed to a proposal from independent ACT Senator David Pocock to establish a committee that reports on the adequacy of social security payments prior to the budget, in order to get Pocock’s vote on industrial relations legislation.
So when the government’s finance ministers are saying the government cannot afford to do everything it wants but ‘hasn’t changed its view on the ‘Stage 3 Tax Cuts’, commits billions to the construction on the latest version of Australia’s new submarine fleet or promises millions for football stadiums, there is at least a marketing problem. If you were spending your days wondering if you can afford to buy food and pay the rent this week on your clearly inadequate Jobseeker payment the ongoing funding announcements for big ticket items would be soul destroying. You can understand the calls of ‘what about us?’.
The Albanese Prime Ministership and Government are still enjoying considerable popularity according to the poll numbers. Most of us are not in the select group of people that know what is in the 2023 Budget ahead of time, for all we know the ‘Stage 3 Tax Cuts’ might be getting taken down the dark alley and disposed of so that a more equitable society can be created. Heaven knows that the government has been given plenty of opportunity to imply that is the case should they want to suggest it might happen on 9 May. They haven’t.
Regardless, it would be good policy to discuss with the Australian public why financial decisions are being made such as why there is a need for a football stadium in Hobart while there is a shortage of affordable and social housing around the country. Typically, people aren’t allowed to routinely live in football stadiums, conversely there may be solid economic reasons why the construction of a stadium in Hobart makes sense. The point is – we don’t know and the government’s not telling.
As demonstrated in this ABC Online presentation, the value of the proposed tax cuts alone could increase social security payments to a level where people don’t have to make a decision if food or rent can both be paid this week, alleviate the issues that plague the NDIS as well as driving a concerted push towards electrifying everything which would reduce our net emissions to almost nothing. It’s not hard to argue that all or any of these outcomes are better for the country that tax cuts to those that have a reasonable income already. Who knows, there may be good economic reasons for giving the better off tax cuts rather than spending the money on lifting others out of the poverty trap. We need to have the discussion rather than just a conga line of spending announcements that contain the word Billion. Everyone else that is the business of selling intangibles can do it – why can’t the Albanese Government?
The government is in a fortunate position where the Opposition Leader doesn’t seem to be able to cut through on any issue and their current popularity gives then a reasonable amount of political capital to use. While some should be reserved to ensure that the ‘Voice to Parliament’ referendum is a resounding yes vote, arguably those that are living well below the poverty line (according to the government’s own research) deserve more help – regardless of the views of the entitled and well off. The political capital will gradually evaporate in any event, so you have to use it while you have some available.
At the very least, the government should be having a conversation with us why they are making choices. Claiming they are implementing an eye watering value of tax cuts because the previous government thought it a good idea isn’t likely to generate understanding in a section of the community where the real concern is if they can afford the $3 bus fare to the only doctor within 50km that will bulk bill their consultation tomorrow.
Former Prime Minister Bob Hawke has a popularity poll rating above 70% of the population at one stage and it didn’t last. At least his government did some marketing to lead discussions with us why they through various decisions were for the public good. If you’re old enough you’ll remember the ‘recession we had to have’ and the ‘J curve’. If you’re not old enough, search is your friend. They were prepared to burn a bit of political capital where necessary before they lost it anyway. It’s a policy the Albanese Government should follow.
Who knows, finding someone in the government that passed a Marketing Course and tasking that person to explain the thought process for the government’s spending decisions might gain the current government another term or two in power. Then they can really deliver on their implied promise of a better society for all.
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