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At Least Turnbull Has Beaten “Confirmation Bias” and “The Halo Effect”!

Some of you will remember me talking about confirmation bias in the past. Basically, it’s where you notice the evidence that backs up your previously held position and fail to see anything that contradicts it. For example, when Australia performed badly at the Montreal Olympics where they failed to win a single gold medal, politicians decided that we needed to spend money setting up the AIS. Compare that to the reaction to the recent NAPLAN results. (Regardless of your attitude to education generally, you need to be aware that much of the concern was the results were “flatlining” and we weren’t showing as much improvement as we wanted.) Did the politicians suggest that we needed a centre for teaching excellence? Nah, it just showed that spending on education is a waste of money and that we just need better teachers, so let’s make ’em all sit some test so that anyone who can’t do maths doesn’t get to be a secondary Literature teacher.

And, I suspect that your reaction to my example will be in line with your own attitudes to education. I’m sure that someone will tell me that education hasn’t been as good since we stopped teaching Latin and singing “God Save The King” while simultaneously reciting our times tables, before learning about how babies were made behind the shelter sheds during playtime. I mean, the learning not the making, of course. Generally speaking babies weren’t made behind the shelter sheds, but if they were, they would have been Australian made babies, not those imported babies that concern Ms. Hanson so much.

Speaking of Pauline, did you happen to notice that after the ATO in Box Hill installed some “squat toilets” for the benefit of those wishing to use them, she was in the media complaining. I was terribly disappointed that nobody used the headline: “HANSON: USE OUR TOILETS OR PISS OFF”!

However, the point of this is not about education or Senator Hanson, it’s about Malcolm Turnbull who has allegedly been impersonating a Prime Minister. Personally, I don’t see much evidence for this, and I very much doubt that it could be proven beyond a reasonable doubt. Although sources close to Mr Turnbull have assured sources close to me that every now and then Mr Turnbull slows down the whole decision making process by suddenly ceasing to stare out the window and insist that people catch him up with what’s been happening in the meeting for the past hour or so.

When Malcolm Turnbull was given the role of standing up in Parliament and telling everyone that he wasn’t Tony Abbott, I suspected that it was going to be hard for him to lose so much support so quickly. At the time, it was much more evident that he wasn’t Tony Abbott and I suspected that confirmation bias would benefit him for a long, long time. “At least he’s better than Abbott,” was a phrase I expected to hear whenever he did something, or failed to do something. (The latter being more consistent with Turnbull’s modus operandi as a politician.) Unfortunately for Mr Turnbull, merely deciding not to hold interviews in swimming attire is not enough to convince people that he was a significant improvement on his predecessor.

I expected that the little changes that he made to direction of the government would have people saying, “There! I told you that he’d be better!” and completely ignoring all the evidence that didn’t suit the proposition. For example, when he changed the government policy on…

Mm, nothing immediately springs to mind. I’ll get back to you on that.

I also expected that – after the shipwreck that we refer to “Abbott’s time in government” – Turnbull would continue to benefit from the “halo effect” which to quote from Wikipedia (if it’s good enough for the Greatest Minister in The World to do it, why can’t I?)

“The halo effect is a cognitive bias in which an observer’s overall impression of a person, company, brand, or product influences the observer’s feelings and thoughts about that entity’s character or properties.”

So that’s why we expect sportspeople to be “role models”. And that’s why we judge the positions and actions of politicians differently depending on whether we support their party or not. For example, when Scott Morrison said that he was just following Tony “Titanic” Abbott’s orders on the Malaysian solution, I’m sure many who admire our Treasurer would see that as admirable loyalty, while criticising the Nazis for using the same defence at Nuremberg.

For a while, Turnbull did seem to benefit from the halo effect. According to some sections of the media, whatever decision Malcolm made was viewed from the prism that, if a clever man like Mr Turnbull had done it, then it must be a clever move. When he suggested that the states could impose income tax one day then say that it wasn’t going to happen the next, he’d “brilliantly” put the states on notice and made it clear that they needed to “live within their means”. And when he announced the double dissolution which everyone had been expecting for several weeks, he apparently caught Labor by surprise with his daring move. Of course by making it about the ABCC, it put Labor in an impossible position and ensured a comprehensive victory.

But that’s all done now. In less than a year, Turnbull has achieved the impossible. Both the Right and the Left agree that Turnbull is a dud – no other PM has managed a consensus like that between the likes of Andrew Bolt and the late Bob Ellis.

Not only that, but he’s managed to show that neither confirmation bias nor the halo effect are enough, when you don’t actually have any sort of a coherent plan.

Yes, yes I know they have plans for jobs and growth and innovation. They plan to be in favour of them, if they happen.

 

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21 comments

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  1. Jaquix

    Funny Newspoll or any of the other pollsters (bar Essential, which reports weekly) have been game to do a post-election poll? Its nearly 2 months of this “innovative, agile, excitedd to be alive” government scraped back in to its torporous normal state.

  2. Jaquix

    Forgot to say I love your line “But that’s all done now. In less than a year, Turnbull has achieved the impossible. Both the Right and the Left agree that Turnbull is a dud.” Ever downwards…

  3. Geoff Andrews

    Let me be the first to assure you that “education hasn’t been as good since we stopped teaching latin and singing “God Save The King” while simultaneously reciting our times tables”.
    Otherwise, your article is a beauty.

  4. Rossleigh

    Thanks, Geoff.

  5. stephengb2014

    Sorry to say but I am afraid that Turnbull is not a dud

    he is in fact an needlessly expensive fungi

    Commonly known as a truffle

    Truffles are rare – but then so is any sign of true leadership from our PM who’s stuff ups seem to resemble the folly of the Titanic in proportion to his inability to actually articulate his non policies.

  6. kerri

    Good article Rossleigh. As usual.
    I am baffled on a daily basis as to why the media are still praising Turnbull for every tiny thing he does?
    He blunders along making poor decisions, or more often no decisions, and when challenged gets off his bum and the media shout what a great guy he is?.
    He is a lazy PM! He is reactionary not proactionary. He is hamstrung, and we all know that, but still the media give him a free pass? He is way too often caught out at home when there are issues to resolve.
    He is the very antithesis of agile and innovative.
    I am not renewing my Crikey subscription as they all forgive him for every little thing. It’s nauseating!
    Teflon Malcolm.
    Australia needs to wake up that the Emperor is wearing no clothes.

  7. Shevill Mathers

    We are in for another three + years of stagnation or going backwards. The single most important tool to take us forward into this innovative, agile future-a real fibre to the premises infrastructure-is now a dead duck, which is what I will remember flowery Turnbull for. Infra structure that would be of use to all Australian’s, unlike a road tunnel or another road link whatever. It has also cost Australian taxpayers 800 million dollars plus, to send a handful of under-performing sportspeople to indulge themselves, what cost each medal and what benefit to the rest of us? in these poor economic times.

  8. stephentardrew

    Yep he is a dud Rossleigh. What a fizzer.

  9. Florence nee Fedup

    Have we ever had a PM before where media makes excuses for his daily stuff ups? Seems we can’t lay the blame at the feet of the PM

  10. helvityni

    Shevill Mathers, did we really spend more than 800 million on Olympics. We’d be better off spending it on obesity prevention to avoid future costly health problems.

    Please no more politicians in swimming attire. I only just got over Abbott exposing his minor body parts. I also prefer Shorten in a suit, not in tight black shorts.

    Also no miniskirts for Ms Julie, and I wish Michaelia finally threw away her shoulder pads… That power-woman dressing is so Eighties.

    There was to more Paul Keating than his Zegna (or were Armani) suits…

  11. helvityni

    Yes Florence, too many stuff-ups already, on the other hand, sit-ups are OK for fitness reasons, but not just for possible photo ops in miniscule swimwear. Grow up, boys.

  12. Wayne Turner

    Mal Abbott and his stooges have one plan,and sadly it continues to work,just. Get back into government. THE END.

  13. Wayne Turner

    Re: Olympic spending.

    That free loader John Coates has publically spoken about the disappointment of how poorly we have gone at this Olympics.His predictable solution: They need more funding. F THAT – WE NEED A HECS SYSTEM for sports people we spend money on.

  14. win

    HECS system for athletes ! Love it! sports are good for building healthy bodies IF YOU DO THEM not spectate . Currently games are just another money spinning con. The only gold medal I cared about was Fiji’s , they deserved a lift after the cyclone Let’s spend all that money on exercise in schools and educating everyone about climate change , which will probably make the current model impossible .

  15. lawrencewinder

    Ahh… Ellis must be giggling!

  16. Ken Butler

    And the coming polls will show???

  17. bobrafto

    The top up for this piece is Mal in red budgie smugglers and although I only made a cursory glance my first impression is that our Mal lacks the balls to achieve anything.

  18. helvityni

    bobrafto, 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Why wear red, it only exposes your shortcomings. The shadowy black is much safer, your secrets are kept safe…

  19. bobrafto

    helvityni

    r u speaking from experience? lol

    The red reminded me of Abbott and probably not a bee’s dick between them.

  20. silkworm

    Squat toilets are for squat people, like Ms Hanson.

  21. Glenn Barry

    Just an update – WOW this post and the comments were prophetic – and it has gotten so much worse so quickly

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