Wednesday 8 May 2019
1 With 10 days to go and the latest polls suggesting a tightening of the vote, I am still thinking they are well off the mark as they were in Victoria and the by-election in Wentworth.
Both wins came on the back of a universal swing against a very unpopular government. Even though Victoria was a state election it still carries the residue of the people’s distrust of a party so willing to change its leader on the slightest whim.
Placing my emotion at the rear of my logic I conclude that all those voters who protested at the abysmal performance of the Coalition are now, if the polls are correct, suffering from some sort of collective self-indulgence wherein they have decided to take the money.
On Insiders yesterday Josh Frydenberg (he seems to be the only one allowed to appear on the program) was asked, after answering a series of questions pertaining to the future of the Nation, if there was there any more.
He had couched all of his answers during the interview in economic gobbledygook and failed to recognize Cassidy’s reason for putting the question to him. “Was there any more?” Cassidy asked again.
The sad thing was that Frydenberg in his ignorance as to the why of the question couldn’t find a sentence that married the two words economy and society together.
And it is there that my memory goes to the lady with the bad hairdo who once said …
“There is no such thing as society, there are only individuals making their way.
And the poor shall be looked after by the drip down effect from the rich.” (paraphrased)
I sat there looking at Frydenberg who was completely oblivious to the whole thing. How sad it must be when you can only see the world you inhabit through the window of a dollar note. And sadder still is that it might as well have been our Prime Minister occupying the same seat.
“The right of politics govern for those who have and the left for those who have not.” JL
To believe the polls is to believe that the entire nation has been in some form of long term hibernation and have just woken completely unaware of how chaotic their government has been or conversely they have been awake all the time and have just decided to forgive them all the damage they have caused our body politic.
Another scenario might be that this monumental effort by conservatives to push our politics far out to the right, might have escaped them. That, however, that scenario I am inclined to dismiss due to what has obviously been protest votes.
2 Anyway for what it’s worth
Two polls show Labor maintaining its modest lead, although they have different stories to tell on primary votes and leaders’ ratings.
Two national polls this evening, one being a second Newspoll result in successive weeks, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last week at 51-49. There is also next to no movement on the primary votes, with the Coalition at 38% (steady), Labor at 36% (down one), the Greens at 9% (unchanged), One Nation at 5% (up one) and United Australia Party at 4% (down one). As was the case last week, this might well have come out at 52-48 before Newspoll adopted its United Australia Party preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition.
There is, however, a significant negative movement for Bill Shorten’s approval rating, which at 35% is down four points on last week’s result (which itself was a two point improvement on a fortnight before). His disapproval rating is at 53%, up two. Scott Morrison was down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 44% and 45% respectively. His lead as preferred prime minister is 46-35, out from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 2003.
Read William Bowe’s full summary at The Bludger Track.
Ladbrokes betting odds
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3 Labor’s official launch
4 On Friday 6 May 2016, I wrote the following:
You would think that a Prime Minister and his Treasurer who are proposing to cut company tax to 25% over the next ten years would have some idea of what the cost to the taxpayer might be. But no. When the PM was asked in an interview with David Speers on Sky News he didn’t have the faintest idea. When Speers asked if it might be $55 billion he said it may or may not be correct.
Surely a Government expecting to go to an election with economic management and trust at the forefront of its campaign wouldn’t be stupid enough not to have costed the centrepiece of its budget?
When 3AW Melbourne commentator Neil Mitchell asked Scott Morrison the same question on Thursday he also couldn’t answer.
“It’s in the budget, look it up” he robustly told Mitchell.
“I haven’t got in front of me. Couldn’t you just tell me”, replied Mitchell.
He didn’t get an answer.
Speers pressed Turnbull a number of times but he continued to be evasive simply saying that Treasury projected the budget to be back in the black by 2020/21 and stay there.
This, of course, didn’t answer the question. Speers asked again. “I don’t understand what the cost is – what’s it going to cost taxpayers to cut the company tax rate to 25 per cent?” he asked. Later he confirmed that Treasury had costed the company tax cuts.
Labor bared their teeth against the government in Parliament.
“The centrepiece of the budget and they forgot to cost it. Even Joe Hockey was more competent than that,” said frontbencher Tony Burke.
Then he was gagged by the government.
Labor released costing’s by the Parliamentary Budget Office showing that a cut to 25% would cost the budget $16.45 billion a year by 2026/27.
When told that Deloitte Access Economics director Chris Richardson estimated the tax cut would hit revenue by $55 billion over the next 10 years, Mr Turnbull could only say that Mr Richardson “may well be right”, but warned that “the further out you forecast, there is more uncertainty.”
The fact of the matter is that they had not done the costing and were just plain lying. And they put up trust as an issue in the forthcoming election. Just who are they kidding?
Chris Bowen at the end of Question Time gave a very spirited account of the Budget omission leaving the Government somewhat embarrassed. And so they should be.
Does it all sound familiar? Nothing has changed.
“Telling the truth should not be delayed simply because we are not sure how people might react to it. ” JL
Tuesday 7 May 2019
5 The Essential Poll comes in at 52/48 to Labor.
6 At this point, my diary entries terminate just as I have much to say. Unfortunately, I have come down with some sort of wog and I have also run out of my arthritic pain tablets.
But there is still fight in the old dog yet so I will front up hopefully on Saturday as usual.
I finish by saying that I thought Labor’s campaign was sensationally well put together. On top of that, he was in his element on Q&A and performed with sincerity compassion and forthrightness.
My thought for the day
“I think the PM last night set a world record for words per minute in his interview with Leigh Sales.”
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