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It’s Election Time And The Grand Final Is Predicted To Be Close!

Here we are on Grand Final eve and everyone’s expecting a tight contest. Team Liberal decked out in their traditional blue were looking like a rabble just a few weeks ago but now, under new coach, Scottie “Skull” Morrison, all the commentary is focusing on how well they’ve been doing on the training track. While the reasons for replacing Coach Turnbull have never been clearly articulated, rumour has it that his inability to stop his right wingers deliberately kicking the ball out of bounds was responsible for his sudden departure. In recent days, however, Morrison has shown a great capacity to get everyone working together. Fans and media alike are all telling us what a great job he’s doing and how he’s whipped a disorganised bunch of losers into a crack team. While a number of players have announced their intention not to play on in the coming season and have declared themselves unavailable for selection for the grand final, Morrison is undeterred telling reporters that he doesn’t need them. “I’ve been underestimated in the past, and I intend to win, even if it means playing every position myself!” When asked whether the resignation of a number of high profile female coaching staff was a problem, Morrison said that he’d never thought that their success should be at the expense of those who were having a real fair go and they’d get a go, when they had a go, but not if this meant less positions for the male coaches. 

And it seems that his strategy of encouraging everyone to look at photos of the Opposition Coach and growl loudly has envigorated everyone. Not only that, but his recent agreement with Clive Palmer that if Palmer’s team didn’t look like making the final, Clive would come along and help with strategy, in spite of telling everyone that a win for Morrison’s boys would be a disaster.

So whatever you do, tune into our coverage and don’t look away. It’s going to be a close one!

As I frequently remind myself, making predictions is hard because the future is often unpredictable. However, most of life is very, very predictable. That’s why the surprise takes us by surprise. If things were completely unpredictable all the time, we wouldn’t wake up and go, “Hey, the sky is green today. What’s going on?”, we’d just accept that the colour has changed because it changes every day. To illustrate my point, if the sky is grey rather than blue or has streaks of red, we just accept that it’s raining or that it’s a nice sunset.

Similarly, we know that the media will try to convince us that the election is going to be close. And, to be fair, since World War Two, one of the major parties has either won or run second. The political commentary have a vested interest in trying to make us feel that anything could happen and we won’t know the result until deep into the night on election eve. Compare this to the betting markets, who paid out a couple of days before the recent Victorian election.

And to consider my imperfect analogy of a grand final, when was the last time you ever heard a sports commentator tell people not to tune in because the grand final was going to be a walkover and you’d be better off doing the gardening.?

Of course, I don’t know the future and I’m not guaranteeing the result, but I do think people are better off dealing with facts than the sort of guff I’ve read in some of the papers. Take, for example, a piece I read in today’s non-Murdoch paper. (Yes, there is still one!) It was talking about the potential, albeit difficult path to victory for the Liberals. So far, so good. There’s nothing wrong with a bit of speculation. However, it was the table headed: “The path to power” that I found rather dubious. It then had two lists separated by the image of a ballot box on which, “The seats each side needs to win” was written.

The list of seven seats on Labor’s side finished with the seat of Deakin in Victoria, which needs a 6.4% swing!

Now before you all start maxing out your credit card to place a bet on the Coalition, I’d like to point out that Labor is expected to have a chance of winning Deakin. However, the idea that they “need” to win Deakin makes it sound like they’re facing a monumental task and the Liberals who only “need” a swing of 6.1% to hold Solomon are in a better position.

This is NOT a prediction of where things will be at midnight of the election. This is simply what would happen if there were a uniform swing, and uniform swings don’t happen. Some states will be more extreme; some electorates will buck the trend. But for the point of view of accuracy, this is what would happen with the following swings nationwide.

A uniform national swing of 1% = Labor majority government

A uniform national swing of 2% = Labor hold 81 seats

And just for fun, let’s pretend that the 6.4% of Deakin is actually the swing size that Labor needs:

A uniform national swing of 6.4% = Labor almost has 100 seats and the biggest landslide in the history of the House of Representatives.

So, if you’re contemplating moving to New Zealand because you fear a return of the boys in blue, I’d hold off until after the election.

On the other hand, if it’s because you like their leader better than either of our options, then feel free to start packing.

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20 comments

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  1. David1

    I have already wagered a small sum, following the reliable bookies odds. A little voice did keep whispering ”remember Hillary” however one thing is for sure, Scomo is no Trump and this is a teams event not a leadership race.

  2. Keitha Granville

    Definitely moving to NZ if Scumo wins, I couldn’t face another 3 years, and the hubris will be vomit inducing.

    I’d pray, but theoretically God is on his side . . . .

  3. Kaye Lee

    ” this is a teams event not a leadership race.”

    Except most of Scott’s team are in witness protection. ProMo wants every election debate to be between just him and Bill. Bill wants the Ministers to also debate but Scott won’t have a bar of that. Could you imagine Melissa Price up against Mark Butler or Tony Burke up against Angus Taylor? Michaelia Cash up against Tanya Plibersek or Chris Bowen? Michael McCormack against Anthony Albanese? Matt Canavan against Jason Clare? Greg Hunt against Catherine King? Christian Porter vs Mark Dreyfuss?

    Morrison is NOT a team player. It’s all about look at me shearing a sheep or slamming a soccer ball past a 10 year old goal keeper. Look at me talking trucks and drinking beer. It is beyond ridiculous.

  4. Vikingduk

    Or propping up the lying rodent, resurrected to assist the jerk with a smirk to continue on the traitorous way.
    Yep, it is beyond ridiculous, perhaps using the yank terminology a clusterfuck, or Brit descriptor snafu (situation normal all fucked up). Go Labor. Voting open tomorrow, we need to consign the lying nasty party to the dung heap of history.

  5. Jaquix

    Voting opens tomorrow. And Newspoll due out tonight I believe. I hope Rossleigh is right, but all this Adani thing is blowing up some of the seats Labor could have won up there. Its getting right out of control. On the other hand, Victoria is looking good. Fingers crossed.
    Cannot contemplate what another 3 years of this vile government would be like, because so many good things would fall by the wayside. Women’s pay gap action, and domestic violence support systems, Aboriginal affairs, 3 and 4 year olds pre-school, public schools extra throughout the country. Cancer sufferers all over the country. Wheelchairs without wheels. Australia used to be a great place but now its plain embarrassing.

  6. New England Cocky

    What am I doing to ensure that the RAbbott Turdball Morriscum Lazy Nasty People misgovernment is consigned to the WPB of Australian political history?

    Have I:
    1) volunteered to man a pre-poll booth for my preferred non NLP candidate;
    2) volunteered to man the phones to talk to voters about the election;
    3) volunteered to hand out how to vote cards around my neighbourhood:
    4) volunteered to scrutineer the vote count on Saturday election night,
    5) made a donation to the campaign of my preferred candidate?

    Without such actions by every concerned Australian voter we could be stuck with another three years of this NLP misgovernment, and emigration to NZ would be a real option for thinking persons.

    Change the government not Australia

  7. helvityni

    Agree with Kaye and Jaquix, it’s ridiculous and embarrassing, but I’m afraid the masses of unthinking will love the clown….

    And thank you Vikingduk for clusterfuck and snafu; cheered me up for a fleeting moment….

  8. Alcibiades

    Actually uniform swing of less than 0.7% 2PP = ALP majority. In fact, the majority of the remaining Coalition primary vote is uselessly tied up in supposedly ‘safe’ & very safe Blue (Lib) & Country (Nat) seats, and therefore of little worth in the contest of ‘in play’ marginal electorates, and even now supposedly ‘safe’ Coalition seats.

    Factoid: Labor could actually fail to win the majority 2PP vote nationally, and still attain majority with a national 2PP of under 50%. Because, above.

    The very ‘safe’ Liberal electorate of that Honourable(?) Member full to the brim of integrity(?), Sussan Ley, Farrer(NSW) is on a supposed margin of 20.5%. Won & so far held by her since 2001. Water, Murray-Darling, Barnaby, Menindee Lakes, absolute Coalition government venality?

    Bookies odds:
    Independent 1.55
    Liberal 2.10

    The partisan corporate MSM is doing everything possible to ”manufacture’ a ‘tight’ race & massage voter ‘perception’. Well, where is the recovery of the Coalition primary vote of 5-9% gonna come from, in less than three weeks ? Their primary vote & party donations disappeared in early 2015 under Abbott, and never came back. Turnbull fell over the line with one seat in 2016 on a primary vote of 42.1%. Since then Labor has had a sustained primary vote gain of a further 2.3%+, whilst Coalition voters have determinedly deserted to fringe minors, primary vote best case has been 37%, down ~5-9% over ‘trend’..

    If the Coalition cannot achieve a primary vote of ~42%, they simply cannot retain government. Regardless of endless daily photo opps of Morrison auditioning for a new career in jobs in sport, the Coal mining industry, as a barista or bartender, or on a farm, etc.

    When the then Federal Labor minority government was thrown out after two terms in 2013, arguably Abbotts Coalition didn’t ‘win’ but was ‘elected’ by default in our binary party system, the end result was Coalition 90 seats, Labor 55. Voters remorse in the polls ever since, over two terms …

    After two terms of the most incompetent openly utterly venal government in my lifetime, even worse than Joh in QLD, every indicator so far is a locked in landslide, with the above numbers … reversed.

    In Indi(VIC) an independent may well succeed an Independent for the first time Federally. In Cowper(NSW) an independent is set to win in a Nat seat on ~4%. Hm …

  9. whatever

    The MSM, which has morphed into a generic Right Wing army of trolls, is calling every Labor initiative a “cash splash” of YOUR hard-earned tax dollars.
    This is while Scotty and his crew give away millions every day.

  10. Alcibiades

    Rossleigh,
    With a 6.4% uniform National 2PP swing, the likely result would be ALP ~95, Coalition ~48, & Independents ~8. There are guaranteed to be a number of surprises, yet ~95-96+ seats may be a bridge too far … mind ya, there’s already a sustained ~6.1% 2PP trend swing in QLD … though … with Clive & ON now openly Coalition pals ?

    Am so looking forward to the manipulated polls released tonight & tomorrow with accompanying surreal ‘over the top’ partisan propaganda declaring Morrison & the Coalition, have turned a corner, the race has tightened, made a comeback from behind … regardless of the actual data, rounded percentages, Margin of Error(MoE), sample size or poll methodology, using 2016 preference flows … as well as the Murdoch/Corporate MSM declaring Morrison ‘slam-dunk’ winning every debate … not.

  11. Kaye Lee

    I got polled again (as I am every few days now). I am so over it I am just enjoying giving a bit of variety with my answers. When asked who is better on border security I now answer the Greens as they are less likely to piss anyone off.

    They always ask to speak to the youngest voter in the house. I have to keep telling them that I am the youngest person who will bother taking the time to answer them.

    How many young people, or busy parents, or tired workers, would bother answering their inane questions?

    A few days ago it was Ucomm which I think is the union polling mob. It was an automated call and when they asked what the most important issue was to me, I listened to their options and none of them were about climate change or the environment so I waited….they hung up on me. It seems the unions have dropped climate change as an issue.

  12. Alcibiades

    Speaking of preference deals … ‘Yorrick’ Hunt, Liberal Member for Flinders(VIC) on a very notional ‘safe’ margin of 7% said, “No comment”. To his credit he hasn’t removed Liberal branding … yet.

    Julia Banks’ bombshell: She’ll preference Labor over Libs – The New Daily

    Liberal female Member scorned, turned Independent Julia Banks, has enraged former colleagues after confirmation she will exchange preferences with Labor in her fight to win Health Minister Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

    The New Daily revealed on Sunday that Ms Banks will put Labor ahead of the Liberals on her how-to-vote cards.

    Banks realistically has little chance of winning against Yorrick, yet her preferences may well be enough for Labor to do so. Recall, ‘Yorrick’ was said to have been most unpleasantly forcefully vulgar in attempted arm-twisting for he who cannot count, failed PM usurper, Peter Dutton.

    Bookies odds, Greg Hunt, Flinders(VIC):

    LIB 1.70
    ALP 1.95
    IND (Julia Banks) 16.00

    Expect those odds to worsen for poor ‘Yorrick’ once the ALP/IND How-to-Vote cards are released Monday, & the Getup!, Union & Labor campaigning against him hits it’s stride this week …

    Those Lib & Nat ‘safe’ seats just don’t appear to be all that … safe … these days, even the ‘very safe’ ones. Hm, must remember to order more popcorn …

  13. Kaye Lee

    Health Minister Greg Hunt apologises for swearing at a NT Mayor

    Greg Hunt admits Katherine Mayor Fay Miller not the only recipient of his ‘strong language’

    Greg Hunt admits to ‘strong conversation’ with department head

    Greg Hunt aspired to be Dutton’s deputy.

    Declining to directly name the bullies in the Liberal Party leadership spill, Julia Banks did, however, name Mr Abbott, Peter Dutton and Greg Hunt as among “the prime movers” of the leadership spill against former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull last year.

  14. Kaye Lee

    “Morrison narrows polling gap with Labor” is the headline.

    The Australian published the Newspoll on Sunday night, revealing Labor is leading the two-party preferred vote 51 per cent to 49 per cent with three weeks to go until the federal election.

    But the coalition’s primary vote has dropped one point to 38 per cent, while Labor’s is down to 37 per cent.

    Mr Shorten has climbed higher in the preferred prime minister stakes, jumping two points to 37 per cent, while Mr Morrison dropped one point to 45 per cent.

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/morrison-narrows-polling-gap-with-labor/2ab20888-5f7b-4372-80b0-1ac32ce20081

    So Morrison’s rating has dropped and the Coalition’s primary vote has dropped and Labor is still in front but they tell us that Morrison is campaigning well. Interesting.

  15. wam

    no conservative government can win without the votes of workers.
    Should scummo do a trump, then we will have the government we deserve.
    As for premierships I have $20 on scummo all up port power to return $2000
    ps channel 34 has jimi followed by Yothu Yindi

  16. Paul Davis

    What? Twiggy the philanthropic protector of the Indue card has hosted a $3k per head meet n eat with Bill Shorten. Was Gina there or is Bill having a private lunch with her tomorrow to get his talking point notes for the big debate?

  17. Kronomex

    “Twiggy the philanthropic protector of the Indue card has hosted a $3k per head meet n eat with Bill Shorten.” If true, it’s called sucking up to and brown nosing the next PM in fear of the Indue cash cow being scrapped (here’s hoping) by Piggy Forktongue.

  18. Alcibiades

    Kaye,
    Murdoch is doing exactly what he did in the lead up to the VIC landslide.

    The latest Newspoll of 2136 voters surveyed between April 26 and April 28 marks a six-point turnaround for the Coalition since March 7 when it trailed 46-54.

    That Newspoll on 7 March was an anomalous jump to an 8% margin, directly contrary to the quarterly Jan-Mar19 Newspoll(always the most accurate), including publishing State by State margins. The next poll had an anomalous reduction to a four point margin, 52-48. The previous Newspoll 52-48, was actually minimum 52.5 v 47.5. Sigh.

    None of the Newspolls from 07Mar19 correspond with actual political events & are contrary to other concurrent polls sustained trend. The recent Galaxy poll was, no change, if anything a 0.1% to Labor, the aggregate trend going from 2.8-2.9% swing.

    Frankly Newspoll appears to have created the 7 March poll within the MoE in order to then be able to generate a false poll tightening momentum. If such dramatic tightening has occurred, why has the Coalition risked seats in other States to cut a preference deal with Clive ? Why are the Newspolls contrary to the Bookies ? Why are ‘safe’ & ‘very safe’ seats with margins of 6.4%, 7% & 20.5% clearly at risk ?

    Bill Shorten has recorded his highest approval rating since March 2015 with 39 per cent of voters satisfied with his performance marking a 2-point rise on the last poll.

    He has also narrowed the gap as preferred prime minister, lifting his numbers two points to 37 per cent compared to a one point drop to 45 per cent for Mr Morrison.

    Since the incumbent PM gets a statistical 16 point boost re Preferred PM(For having a pulse), and Shorten has increased his PPM rating, then the weighted PPM(worthless) is Shorten 37 v Morrison 29 ?! How does that also reconcile with the supposed ‘tightening’ of the polls ?

    Labor primary drops 2 points, Coalition drops 1 point, Clive jumps to 5 points. These numbers don’t add up …

    Calling, Bollocks on this BS, so convenient the day before pre-polling opens. The Murdochracy, the media arm of the IPA must be broken up via anti-trust & fairness doctrine laws.

    PS The irony is, a perception of a tightening would probably lessen the apathy of disengaged voters who would otherwise waste votes in anticipation of the certainty of an ALP landslide, thence vote ALP ’cause it’s close. Oops.

  19. NewBruce

    They are some enticing debate combinations Kaye Lee
    Maybe the Press Club can organise a debate relay.
    I am trying to type, and get my head around the team moronscum microphone changes.

    What a joke.
    Clusterfuck is so apt

  20. David1

    Following are a selection of the betting markets for the election as of this morning. The numbers have barely moved this year. Obviously the markets take the Newspoll with a grain of salt as I do.

    Australian Federal Politics

    Australian Federal Election
    TAB Market

    Aust Fed Election Wnr Sat 18 May
    Party that provides PM at swearing in

    Labor
    1.35
    Coalition
    3.00
    Australian Conservatives
    301.00
    Greens
    301.00
    One Nation
    501.00

    Ladbrokes

    Federal Election – Sworn In Government
    Information
    Labor
    1.3
    Coalition
    3.5
    Pauline Hanson’s One Nation
    301
    Australian Conservatives
    301
    Greens
    301
    United Australia Party
    301

    Sports Bet

    next australian election 2019

    Labor
    $1-25

    Coalition
    $3-85

    Greens
    $201-00

    Greens

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