Is it possible for the Coalition to lose 35 seats? Yes, it is.
After the election of May 21 2022, I published a piece titled “Why the Conservatives cannot win the next election and why Labor will go early,” in which I wrote:
“Another reason the conservatives will be up against it in the next election is that many mature-aged voters dropped from the rolls and were replaced with a cohort of young folk seeking change. This is guaranteed to transpire again. Both parties knew it would happen sometime, but the LNP, with its born-to-rule attitude, did nothing about it.
A note of caution, though. The young are desperate for change. By that, I mean significant, meaningful transformation that excites and promotes new ways of doing things.”
Mainstream media has now also woken to this most obvious point. Historically when the polls are published, they show which age groups support whichever party; invariably, they demonstrated that older folk supported the Coalition and younger folk backed Labor and the Greens.
It meant that as older folk passed on, they would be replaced by a younger cohort more likely to support the left:
“A new analysis of voting trends by the Liberal-leaning Centre for Independent Studies has found that by the time people reached their early 50s, Baby Boomers (people born between 1946 and 1964) and Generation X (1965-1980) were more likely to vote for a conservative party than a progressive party.”
The paper’s research suggests my thinking on this subject has been validated. The reader should think of me as something other than a political genius. It was simple. If you looked at the polls for many years, as I have, you would conclude that the young voted left and the old voted right. And that, at some time, the old would progressively die off, and the young left voters would replace them.
An analysis of the report by James Massola and Paul Sakkal for the Sydney Morning Herald suggests that:
“The Coalition could lose the next six elections because Millennials and Generation Z voters aren’t shifting towards conservatives as they age.
“The report further states that that trend is not being repeated among voters who are Millennials (1981-1995) or Generation Z (1996-2009). The percentage of Millennials shifting their vote to the Coalition is only increasing by 0.6 per cent at each election – half the speed at which Boomers and Gen Xers are shifting – which means Millennials will be in their 80s rather than their 50s before they are more likely to vote for the Coalition.
And for Generation Z, who were first eligible to vote in a federal election from 2014, support for the Coalition is falling, rather than increasing. This group is the least likely of any post-war generation to support the Coalition.”
All this analysis indicates that the Coalition could lose another 35 seats. The paper reveals that by 2040 – 70 per cent of voters will be from post-1980 generations.
The Australian Election Study proclaim to be the leading study of political attitudes and voting behaviour in Australia. Their paper examined the average primary vote for the Coalition in elections held in 1966, 1969, 1980 and from 1987 to 2022.
According to the paper’s author Matthew Taylor support for the Coalition among Millennials was increasing at a glacial rate compared to Baby Boomers and Gen X.
“If Gen Z support for the Coalition stays where it is and the generation that comes after has similarly low support, then even if Boomers, Gen X and Millennials keep shifting towards the Coalition at the rates we have seen in the past, that still isn’t enough for the Coalition to return to government in the next six elections,” he said.
After studying the report, I concluded that the Coalition has a rough sea to navigate before having any success in future elections.
Liberal Frontbencher Dan Tehan has called for a significant review of his party’s policies, saying the party needed to find better ways to prove that Liberal values were core Australian values.
They would have to do more than that, like getting rid of the blatant corruption that insinuates itself like rust throughout the party.
The Liberal Party has survived on policies aimed directly at the cohort that is now on its way to the long sleep, and those replacing them want other things from their government, like a revival of the fair go.
Added to their already substantial problems, I find it impossible to imagine that the Australian people would be so gullible as to elect a government that performed so miserably for a decade.
Along the road to a new election, events will emerge to focus on the former Government’s corruption. A steady stream of bad news will be revealed before the next election. I speak of Robodebt and the long list of severe misdemeanours that will be placed before the National Anti-Corruption Commission in June. The Robodebt Royal Commission report which was handed to the Governor General yesterday is expected to be explosive (if it hasn’t been already). This can’t be good for the opposition, no matter what they say.
Of course, the best thing Labor has going for it is Peter Dutton himself. As I previously wrote, and still maintain:
“On all accounts, he thinks there is nothing wrong with the party he leads: Its philosophy, its morality, its trust, its economic credentials and its equality.
Peter Dutton is so disliked by all and Sundry that he couldn’t win an election if he started now.”
My thought for the day
I find the most objectionable feature of conservative attitudes is its propensity to reject well-substantiated new knowledge, science in other words because it dislikes some of the consequences that may flow from it.
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19 comments
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New England Cocky -
Geoff Andrews -
Perry -
Terence Mills -
Phil Pryor -
ajogrady -
Harry Lime -
Geoff Andrews -
Geoff Andrews -
Lawriejay -
New England Cocky -
Harry Lime -
leefe -
andyfiftysix -
Keith -
Clakka -
wam -
Royce Arriso -
Wayne Turner
Return to home pageWhile I share your enthusiasm for the LIARBRAL$ remaining on the Opposition benches for the next millennium, I caution your trust in the younger generation Z persons to think beyond tomorrow, your apparent dismissal of the power of Murdick media and the current overwhelming political funding power of the foreign owned multinational corporations that presently benefit from LIARBRAL$ payback when in office.
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The cringe-worthy performance of the Albanese LABOR government bending over for the USUKA sub debacle, the loss of national sovereignty by allowing the accommodation of more foreign Occupation Troops in Northern Territory and failure to act to save ”OUR ABC” from further destruction by Murdick appointments suggests that inner city cellar dwellers need to get out of their pollution cloud more frequently to see how too many government agencies are failing Australian voters.
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The LIARBRAL$ have made Australia a third world raw resources economy, just like the too many African nations exploited by foreign interests that send the natural resources back to their local processing works to be manufactured into items by their local workers for their local profit. Why is there no local processing or manufacturing of Australian raw materials into finished products by Australian workers?
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Regardless, bring on the loss of 35 COALition seats, especially NOtional$ seats, and follow that with some nation building policies that will provide employment for Australian voters.
YA DREAMING!!!
(Didn’t bother to read the article: just a first reaction. I shall now calmly read your fantasy, Lordy: and hope to be convinced)
Labor has let down young voters expecting to see real action to prevent further fossil fuel extraction, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Greens picked up many of them come election time.
Cocky
Don’t for a moment believe that the Albanese government is not aware of the AUKUS booby-trap that Morrison had left.
It hasn’t escaped the notice of anybody that the greatest proportion of the costs associated with AUKUS fall on Australia and that the submarines being contemplated for possible delivery in thirty (perhaps forty) years time will be obsolete well before the first one is launched.
For Albanese to have come to office and immediately walked away from AUKUS would have made Australia a laughing-stock after our track record on submarines and our contractual naivety, first with the Japanese (Abbott) and then the French (Turnbull).
I believe that we will proceed with the three (perhaps five) refurbished Virginia Class submarines if the US are able to supply them and that will be the last you will hear of AUKUS as it sinks beneath the waves of new technology.
If the Ukraine war is teaching us anything it should be that relatively cheap drones can deliver lethal force on target and gather reconnaissance far more effectively that two hundred blokes stuck underwater in a steel tube worth billions of dollars.
Time and technology will allow us to walk away from AUKUS well before it stresses our economy or our credibility !
The imagined scenes in this article are debatable, for the old government people need prosecuting, smashing in memory, the new is just not able to move well, even if the talent is there, the old base has changed with different pressures coming from Greens and Teals, and the choking filth of Merde Dog, the ratbag media, shock jock pox and general ignorance and disillusion seem to be as strong but passive as ever. To think we still have representaion by pretend elites in politics of the depths of Duckwit-Futton, Joyce, Hanson, such simian simple yabberers, is vomitous in the face of our real, deep, future needs. And, media run by shitheads of the Merde Dog, Stokes, Costello and assorted radio types remains an insult to advanced stone age thought. And 2G B (for slow and malleable non thinkers) remains influential…The slight good news of the going of a nappyful of brewing brownboys in G Rennick is a small and rare delight…
Totally agree NEC. AUKUS and its eye watering cost for subs that are obsolete now will be Albanese’s ” The Emporor’s Coat” situation at the next election forcing Labor into minority government.
If the NACC behaves as promised,and gets it ‘s shit together by immediately placing the Robodebt scandal as first scam on the starting line,then those of the ilk of Benito,Anus ,LLLey,etc. will find themselves tipped out of the remainders bin into the dumpster fire of the former government.They can then give their heartfelt thanks to the former Liar in Chief as being the final nail in a ratshit party’s coffin..As Morrison’s history so starkly illustrates,it is littered with deceit,gaslighting,grandstanding,undermining and blame shifting.He would not recognise the truth if it was a B double that had just run over him.He needs to be at the top of the order as an example to all the other gutless lackeys,who are flat out denying everything.I suspect all those faux friendships are going to be incinerated in an orgy of self preservation.Bring. It. On.
Could that flotsam lose 35 seats? You bet,but they won’t all be going to Labor.
How about two or three elections resulting in a hung parliament with the balance of power shared between the teals, Greens & Tony Windsor type independents?
Shock! Horror, I hear the rusty bugles trumpeting from the light on the hill.
For me, keeping the bastards honest is still a desirable election outcome.
….and that applies to both major parties.
I recall in 1972 when Whitlam ascended to the Government benches, some sections of the media then were suggesting that he would be there for 3 or 4 terms, he did not last 3 years (2 years 11 months), good Lordy! John I hope you’re on the left track!
@ Terence Mills: Uhm ….. I remember that Macron knew that Scummo lied to him about the French submarines.
@ Lawriejay: The fall of the Whitlam Labor government was facilitated by several external factors including the treason by gg John Curr, interference by betty Windsor, Charlie Chuckles and too many Palace staffers, with the CIA giving Australia payback for electing a socialist government that withdrew Australian troops from Vietnam in1972 as one of their first actions.
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Then there was the personal grouch by Merdick that Whitlam had failed to appoint Merdick to the Washington Ambassador role after News Ltd had been the only media supporter of LABOR in the 1972 elections. Labor summonsed Merdick to the Bar of the Senate to answer questions about his biased coverage of Australian politics, not Merdick’s favourite question. Consequently, Merdick has been the constant enemy of LABOR governments and has been shown to be prepared to do whatever damage is possible to LABOR since that time.
Cocky ,Labor need not fear the Terminally fucked Illiberal National$, but they better look out for the Greens,who have had the most feasible policies .for fucking years, but generally given short shrift by the media, especially Morlock’s gutter press.Labor is generally gutless,and unless they change, they will lose relevance.Things are on the change.The sooner the better.
” … the party needed to find better ways to prove that Liberal values were core Australian values.”
Given that Liberal Party values seem to be principally the aggregation of personal wealth for themselves and a small cohort of supporters, destruction of the environment and exclusion of minorities, they’ll have a hard job convincing the bulk of Millenials and Gen Zers of that.
As for the possibility of them losing another 35 seats … bring it on, baby. That’s a future I want to see.
leefe, you make a good point. Will the liberals manage to define their values in a way that shows empathy, care for the environment and wont screw us over again? Surely these are the core values that they are fighting against, lol. After 50yrs of flogging “dole” bludgers, will that pathology disappear? Not in my life time….
Karma is the best bitch going.
For a number of elections in the future, a key question in relation to Conservative candidates may be questions about the character of Coalition candidates. What did the so called moderate Liberals do when there was so much aggravation created by robodebt. Not only that, they have blood on their hands, as do their more conservative peers. A good proportion of the media also comes with its own smell.
Another factor is having orchestrated a very nasty reprehensible robodebt scheme they cannot claim to be sound economic managers.
Peter Dutton is playing politics by suggesting we need to build nuclear power stations. Quite incongruent; nuclear power is expensive, renewables are far cheaper. At the same time they are pushing the cost of living as criticism of the Labor government.
It would be good if Independents and Greens win a good proportion of Coalition seats at the next election.
FFS we need an opposition, per chance an enlightened opposition, anything but the bunch of slummocks we’ve had since the invention of the thieves naming themselves Liberals
The nature of risks in the countries of high-tech has changed dramatically over the past 20 years, and that has increasingly accelerated over the past 10. Oz has not only dragged the chain significantly, but arrogantly disregarded and dismantled manufacturing, and mostly sold-out most of the significant inventions of its formidable brains trust, except possibly in agriculture.
Under Gough (1972-75) we had a spell of much needed social reform,
Fraser (1975-83) put paid to that by doing SFA, except for enhancing Gough’s agenda – multiculturalism, refugee policy, racism & apartheid, and administrative law (notably all attacked by the LNP’s later actions or omissions)
Hawke & Keating (1983-96) then dragged our strangulated antediluvian industrial system out of the 19th century, followed by
Howard (1996-2007) who pork-barrelled all the gains, set the process of government corruption in place and sought to trash unions and the people’s franchise, with the aid of the feckless industry destroyer Hockey.
Under Rudd & Gillard (2007-13) more social reform and investment in health and education, whilst trying to introduce (but self-sabotaging) climate change abatement.
Needless to say as time moved on, from 2013 to 2022, the gains for Oz wrought by Labor were not built upon, but deconstructed by the LNP with the aid of Mudrock and corruption, enfranchising the elite, blue-sky debt, the land theft industry, visas for agricultural slaves, exploitation by foreign interests, wage stagnation and impoverishment for ordinary citizens.
Since the days following the effete and ineffective imperialist lickspittle, Menzies, on every occasion Labor have sought to modernise and bring opportunity and a functional equilibrium to Oz as a whole, then the Liberals / LNP, under the false auspice of ‘conservatism’, have set about destroying Labor’s narrative, pork-barreling Labor’s fiduciary gains, and deconstructing the (so called) ‘socialist’ policies to facilitate a reversion to the dark ages of colonial era imperialist usury, lies, misdirection and confabulation to facilitate a stranglehold for only themselves, the elites and aristocrats. Yet many unwitting aspirants have bought it.
It seems fair to say that since the Hawke / Keating industrial framework reforms, no-one has affected any reforms encouraging broad industrial implementation and retention of profits in Oz, in the alternative, other than the big extractive industries, we’ve been lead to an economy of rent-seekers, tee-shirt and ice-cream sellers.
In this period of the great acceleration, where we should have been advancing in leaps and bounds like the rest of the world’s hi-tech countries, Oz, like USA and Britain has been strangulated by the dysfunctional politics and policies of right-wing ‘conservatives’. And due to comparative isolation and low population, this leaves Oz in particular with much to do, and not much to do it with, other than proceeds from exports (albeit proceeds from minerals exports are grossly inadequate).
In the face of these matters, and the current unstable risks of global inflation / stagnation, Russia / Ukraine, China’s faltering economy, tensions over Taiwan’s chips, the languishing Tories, and the lingering Trump.
My Report Card on Labor – Ruminations on the current ‘tough ones’:
RENEWABLES & INDUSTRY TRANSFORMATION:
Well underway, but will take many years and require massive investment of funds and tech to achieve the necessary acceleration of pace.
MINERALS & FOSSIL FUELS:
Much needed to maintain economic equilibrium and help fund renewables transition. Needs massive capital to undertake. Needs tax reform. FFs needed whilst renewables transition continues over decades. Other minerals needed for renewables and e-systems – look at refining / manufacturing on-shore. Green hydrogen – not sure, but maybe could use or be in parallel with LNG distribution infrastructure? The latest transition report from AEMO says we may have brown-outs due to rapid retirement from coal-fired generation without any fallback to LNP-generated, such is our current fragility.
DEFENCE & AUKUS:
We’ve been good at being canon-fodder. Our home country strategics have forever been between lacklustre and appalling. Our military’s management of procurement has been ad-hoc, largely unsuccessful, dysfunctional and obscured. Rarely fit for contemporary purpose. We have largely failed to have faith and invest in an Oz materiel industry opting for hugely expensive foreign cobble-ups.
Whilst AUKUS has been writ as ’Subs’, and whilst that has largely been viewed in the olde worlde sense as vehicles for ballistics warfare, that may just be a convenient cover-off for what is also (or more) a relatively fast-moving underwater surveillance base to monitor crucial undersea comms and internet infrastructure and as a deterrent against illegal undersea mining and etc. That said, It may be that the AUKUS ‘pillar 2’ matters are overall more important than the ‘Subs’ in bootstrapping leading-edge high-tech frontiers in numerous industries, including in decarbonisation reform.
Given Morrriscum had it, in-principle only, staring in our faces, and given heightened strategic tensions and the ‘pea-shooter and rubber dinghy’ mess that was our military, it was likely an easy sell for Labor as cover for an economic and industrial stimulus opportunity. Its so-called ‘eye-watering’ cost represents a 0.15% spending increase on GDP over 30 years. With swings and roundabouts, about 5% increase on defence expenditure over the forward estimates. Giving us re-establishment of a manufacturing base, about 20,000 jobs, including a medium to very high-tech training reboot and personnel qualified in a diversity of high-tech pursuits of the future, including decarbonisation.
I’m guessing Labor feels that they can navigate through the slings and arrows – who knows?
SOCIAL & AFFORDABLE HOUSING & HOMELESSNESS:
Social and affordable housing has been a growing mess of arrogant neglect by all sides of politics for years. Failure to modernise, selling off land and buildings to bolster budgets, facilitating feckless privateers, pushing not-for-profits to the brink, whilst during the whole time the standards and technologies for improved housing have meant replacement costs are significantly higher, and the planners, ignoring good advice have instituted nimbyism and McMansions on postage stamps generating urban slums, generating huge profits for land thieves and land-bankers.
The problems began to significantly manifest around 2016-2018, and skyrocketed from 2019-2022 as a result of the direct and roll-on effects of the pandemic, and then supply-chain issues and inflation. With inflation also driving some gouging behaviour.
Whilst reform of the domestic land supply and construction framework may take a decade to bring to affect, the immediate issues, 2019-2023, including constructions stalled and inflation / supply-chain and builders solvency will resolve fairly soon, and address shortages within a couple of years.
Addressing these fundamentally state matters via Labor’s Housing Fund and accompanying well-directed stimulus is a good ongoing scheme, and the extra $2bn funnelled to the states subsequent to the ‘Green scream’ is also good. Maybe they could also look at a specific adjustment of rent assistance under Social Security? As for rent caps, risky and prone to backfire (ACT is very different), and negative gearing will need to be carefully addressed, but right now is not a good time.
PRIVATE VS STATE SCHOOL FUNDING & UNIVERSITIES:
What a bloody mess. I like the notion of state education all free for citizens. Untangling our mess would be a strategic nightmare. What to do?
STAGE 3 TAX CUTS:
Hush my mouth. You can just sense all sorts of strange trickle-downs. Everyone’s sorta hushed and expectant. I guess Albo’s gotta piss or get off the pot.
VOICE:
Yay!
PS:
I might be a bloody idiot with an over-active imagination.
Skipped the pool today but you would have warmed me up, lord. Unless albo gets screaming the big winners in the next election will be the loonies taking a dozen seats(none from the LNP, Keith). For me the result will be another howard ten years and never another labor government at will be a disaster. So, Albo, forget you ‘nice camaraderie’ and get on the box to expose the sick attitudes of the robodebt and ‘no’ shonkies in the LNP
The LNP lost the image game. Complacent and hubris-addled, they present as bullying, overgrown private schoolboys, gloating about who won the last stiffy competition behind the scoreboard. Oddly, the electorate fails to share their delight in themselves. The answer to this problem is obvious; Conservatives, don’t be a-holes. Say that again, it’s in your DNA and therefore immutable ? Then suffer in your jocks.
If only.
Never underestimate the gullible and ignorance of the majority of the population.
Add to that a very gutless Federal Labor government. Labor still too afraid of the MSM,and the big business lobbyists. Grow a spine Labor,dump the 3rd stage tax cuts,dump all the other benefits exclusively available to the very well off,and do something of real substance on housing.