How Bad (or Good) is it Today?
I do love my morning beach walks.
Between 6 and 7, ride the bike down to the beach, greet the various regulars down there, James collecting bits of glass washed up overnight among the shells, Rob and Luke, taking the dogs for a run, Janet likes a swim before heading off to work. The wildlife is waking, cormorants ducking underwater to get breakfast, a pod of dolphins foraging, seagulls grazing, fish reflecting silver shimmers through the water.
And then there are the Jehovah’s Witness (JW) ladies, Marg and Carol this morning, Friday it will be Sue and Sue. Faithfully spreading the good news that Jesus will be back soon and giving away the Watch Tower and some other magazine telling of the joy of living forever in the warm embrace of ... free to whoever wants one.
On Saturday it may well be Matthew and John. There is another man, but I missed his name, but he takes the lead in discussion. His challenging question is a ‘How bad can it get?’ kind of question as he ruminates about all the evils that beset humanity; famine, wars, pestilence and so forth.
It’s interesting when we ask such a question, it happens to us all at times, we get a bee in the bonnet and swat away madly but it won’t go away, but when we look back, do we compare what we have today with what it was like in which ever yesterday we choose to reflect on, and is our recollection accurate?
Tom Waits shared such a moment in his song Martha, an imagined call to a long lost lover from his youth:
They were days of wine and roses, poetry and prose
And Martha, all I had was you and all you had was me.
There was no tomorrows, we’d packed away our sorrows
And we saved them for a rainy day.
And I remember quiet evenings trembling close to you.
Reflections of a long lost love, of days that were just too perfect for words and the joy of young love seen through the prism of an unhappy marriage perhaps, he alludes it ‘You know that I got married too’. The reflection of the lost love leaves the listener to see that the singer is perhaps not all that happy, wishing he had not made the mistakes which led to him and Martha breaking off, starting new lives apart from each other.
So how bad is it today?
The challenging question from the JW man was to make me aware that the end is coming soon, Jesus will return and all those who believe will be carried off to heaven or something, those left behind will burn in the eternal flames of hell perhaps.
The last time we met, we spoke for almost an hour. I asked him to reflect, as he had asked me to, to compare life today and some distant yesterday.
We talked about the world population, currently 8.2 billion and slowly climbing. Never before have there been quite this many people alive on the earth at any one time. What has caused the population to climb so dramatically? In 1950, just after WWII, the world population was estimated to be around 2.5 billion and has grown about three and a half times in seventy four years. Yet, despite the headlines of war and famine and hatred the average life expectancy of those living today is higher than it has ever been. Life expectancy in 1950 was about 66 years, today it is around 84 years.
If life is so bad today, why are people living longer?
In his book Factfulness, Hans Rosling lists a number of ‘bad’ things that have got better, including infant mortality. The number of deaths before a child reaches 5 years has gone from 44% of child births to 4% in the last 200 years.
The countries where people died from smallpox 200 years ago was about 148, today smallpox is effectively eliminated, no country has reported outbreaks of smallpox since the mid 1970s.
Deaths from disasters is an interesting statistics since when a disaster strikes, such as the floods in Spain, reports indicate that about 200 people have perished. The floods in the Netherlands in 1953 which devastated parts of Holland, Scotland and Belgium reported a total of 2,551 fatalities. The statistic quoted by Rosling is that during the 1930s 971,000 people died in various disasters compared to 72,000 in the most recent decade.
Another interesting statistic is of people dying of hunger, since 1970 that number has dropped from 28% to currently 11% of the world’s population.
He also lists good things which have got better.
Harvests of grain crops since the 1960s have improved both on a per hectare from 1.4 tonne per hectare to 4 tonne, and the amount of land-growing crops has also increased so food is more readily available, immunisation rates for 1-year-olds have increased from 22% in 1980 to currently 88% which has decreased the risks of infant mortality though infectious diseases, cancer survivals increased dramatically, access to potable water and electricity and sewerage has improved as has the rate of literacy.
In the last 20 years, the number of people living in extreme poverty has almost halved.
So how bad has it got?
As political campaigns come on line, and people are fear driven to do something about all the bad things current governments are not addressing, crime becomes a hot topic; in my local Bunnings store this morning there was a display of security and anti-theft products in a special display. Yet, a close examination of available statistics show that crime has decreased in recent years. Could it be because so many homes now have security systems, monitoring cameras surrounding properties, accessible on the mobile phone?
Or could it be that we really are tough on crime, so much so that the prisons are overflowing and we will need to build more, just in case crime goes up again despite our best efforts.
In just about every statistical line we can follow, life has improved for most people. The ones who suffer are primarily those in war zones or those being pushed aside because of ethnic or religious intolerance.
So why is it that there is a perception that things have got so bad, if we believe the doomsayers or my JW friends, worse than it has ever been?
Could it be that we have an inbuilt negativity instinct, that we see people camped by the beach and are suddenly aware of homelessness virtually in our back yard, or that news and social media highlight the issues such as crime, young kids having too much fun late in the evening, that Mrs Jones down the road had a break in last week so crime is out of control.
The housing crisis, the un-affordability of either buying or renting in the major cities and the high interest rates making even the dream of home ownership seem more like a nightmare than a dream which can be realised. And those who express that fear include those who are watching the resale values of their way too large, mortgage-free homes climb to ever increasing peaks.
Or could it be that we have such high expectations of having a perfect life, a life where every whim and fancy is satisfied, that governments are elected into office to make sure that all I need will be on tap, the control of those in my neighbourhood who make noise at night, the young kids bouncing a basketball, throwing hoops after dark in the local park is just too much to handle, call 000, they might get tired of throwing hoops and want to steal something of mine.
Or that should I suffer from type 2 diabetes because I love my sugar fixes and the odd drink of something soothing, that the medical facilities are close at hand to fix me. Surely there is a pill for that. But please don’t tell me I am too self indulgent, that I should be a bit more circumspect regarding what I put into my mouth or that I should walk to the shops, 250 metres down the street instead of driving there. My phone tells me to do 6,000 steps. If it wants that many steps it can do them itself, thanks a lot.
Getting back to my JW friends who seem to smugly suggest that all the problems alluded to, but are in fact far less than they imply, will be resolved when Jesus returns. The first prediction was for 1874 and that the saints would be raptured to heaven in 1878. Alas, the predictions were not accurate, so another guess was 1914, with Charles Taze Russell declaring that the second coming actually occurred but was invisible. But all we got was five years of the most brutal war in history. And again in 1975 the Watch Tower Society predicted that Armageddon would occur in 1975.
Still waiting for that, but we need to be ready!
It appears me that not only are the predictions nothing more than guess work targeted at gullible people who are too afraid of life and want the second coming and the rapture to take them away from the cesspool we live in and an opportunity to smugly preach to unbelievers to repent or face the gloom of eternal hellfire. But then I am an ‘unbeliever’, and as such quite open to allowing others to believe what they believe, and ask that those who believe whatever they believe allow those who do not believe what they believe to be free to believe what they want to believe.
Instead of joining those social media trolls and the fear-mongering press barons to instil the fear of god or faith in political saviours or ‘influencers’ to solve all the perceived ills of our world, to let us know that there is some good news, things are not nearly as bad as they were, and with hard work and compassion from each of us and the leaders we either choose to lead us or those who acquire leadership through other means, fair or foul, things just might get even better.
I live in hope.
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16 comments
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Harry Lime -
Graham Albrey -
wam -
Canguro -
Steve Davis -
Terence Mills -
GL -
Arnd -
GL -
Canguro -
leefe -
Clakka -
Bert Hetebry -
GL
-
Arnd -
GL
Return to home pageGiven the death wishes of a good part of the American population today, some of us might wish the Jehovahs witnesses are right.It’s getting more difficult to live in hope, Bert.
Wishful thinking I suspect. Not sure how “things” can continue to improve indefinitely with an infinitely and exponentially increasing parasitic population, sucking exponentially more life and energy out of our very finite host planet. We can even see, right now, where we are taking our beautiful blue planet by just observing the lifeless dust rock that is Mars. No, it sadly must end at some point and the trajectory of humanity will eventually turn around and go into decline, hard as that is to imagine from these halcyon days in which we dwell. “Greed and Stupidity will be the downfall of the human race” (Stephen Hawking) The only real question is, ‘when’.
When Graham is now in the Pacific, now in the Arctic for bears and now for Chad but never in the mind of us, the Poms, North Americans and Chinese where ‘greed and stupidity’ rule.
ps
Ratings are exposed as a means to sell papers and God has blessed the septics.
These homilies ought to be titled Mornings with Bert. Not to diss on them, au contraire, if folks want to exalt their optimism and good-natured outlook on life, all strength to their writing arm, and if they have a consequential positive impact on the readers, well, well done, job achieved.
I wouldn’t classify myself as a natural pessimist, although I took the position long ago that it’s better to be disillusioned than illusioned… it just gets one closer to the raw truth of the matters, and if truth is of any value, then why not shed the illusions?
I haven’t read Hans Rosling, but I might, after this Bert alert, being a bit of a fact hound, but there’s a couple of things in this morning’s post that ought to be challenged.
Let’s take the rose-coloured glasses off…
World populations are not slowly climbing. With a current figure of around 8.2 billion and a projected figure of 9.7 billion by 2050, that’s a nearly 20% increase over current numbers within a quarter of a century. The extra 1.5 billion mouths to feed, bodies to house, along with healthcare, education, employment etc. will pose significant challenges at all levels.
Potable water, albeit an essential commodity, is limited, and is bound to become more so in the coming decades as the challenges of sharing it between food production, human consumption and other uses grow.
I question Bert’s assertion that “amount of land-growing crops has also increased.” I may be incorrect, but I think that land usage for broad-acre cropping is pretty much maximised on a global scale. He’s correct that crop yields have increased over the last six decades, the salient question is why is that so, and the answer is that agriculture, globally, has become totally reliant on the use of agrochemicals and artificial fertilisers as well as fossil fuels. Continued use of agrochemicals – herbicides, pesticides, fungicides – have had a devastating impact on ecosystems at macro & micro levels, while use of artificial fertilisers, particularly nitrogenous materials such as urea and anhydrous (injected gaseous) ammonia have comprehensively destroyed soil microbiota communities. The net takeaway from all of this is that as soil ecosystems have been destroyed, globally, along with natural fertility, it is now impossible to grow crops without the continued use of agrochemicals and artificial nutrient inputs. If ever there was a Faustian bargain with the Devil, this is surely one of the prime examples.
There’s no mention of the impact of global warming in Bert’s rosy essay… yet we have been told, ad nauseam, that that is the primary existential threat facing us and indeed all the natural world; it’s here, it’s now, and it’s getting worse on a daily basis. Valencia’s disaster is only the most recent iteration of this fact.
Meanwhile, Nero fiddles (or lutes, apparently the fiddle bit is false), bread & circuses predominate, Jehovah Witnesses and other religious nutcases continue to spruik their fabulist fantasies, and as Sonny & Cher reminded us, the beat goes on.
Tom Waits, btw, in later years was wont to note that he was not impressed with his first album, Closing Time, where the song Martha first appeared. Later works such as Bone Machine, Rain Dogs, Swordfishtrombones, Alice, and Orphans: Brawlers, Bawlers & Bastards are of a different calibre altogether.
Canguro, just to add to your “Faustian bargain with the Devil,” I’m pretty sure that the nutrient value of commercially grown foods is dropping also, but I’ll have to check on that.
I have been greatly impressed with the high quality of Australian (shop bought mainly) citrus that we have been juicing on a daily basis in recent times – good size oranges and mandarines, seedless and juicy. A great improvement over what we used to grow mainly resulting from improved plant breeding and grafting. Our growers have done us proud.
Mangoes are another fruit that we have seen a major quality improvement in for the same reasons together with consumer demand for quality. The old days of stringy tasteless mangoes are behind us, Even so, the old Bowen mangoes do make an excellent chutney which is what I’m about to get busy with.
FYI this is the recipe I use but happy to trade recipes with anybody else who’s interested :
Dark Mango Chutney
I KG peeled & Sliced Mango : not too ripe
Green Apple chopped : for Pectin
Onion Chopped
Garlic, Cloves Shredded to taste
Chilli to taste
Green Ginger Shredded
250g Chopped Pitted Dates
220g Sultanas
1 Litre Dark Vinegar (or a mixture of malt and Apple cider vinegar)
Salt to taste
680g Dark Soft-Brown Sugar
Cook up all ingredients except Sugar and Salt in saucepan and simmer until soft : Add sugar and salt bring back to boil and simmer for one hour or more until thickens.
Swapping recipes on AIMN, what next ?
On another note: Rabid Ray Hadley is retiring. One less right wing media thug to infect the airwaves.
“Mornings with Bert”. Quite!
Aka: “The Dawn Of The Age Of Aquariums”. There’s even a song about it. I’m not entirely certain what aquariums have to do with it all … – but then, to me it’s been looking like a long drawn out False Dawn anyways. The costs – environmental, social, political, … (known as “externalities” to economists) of the improvements in the general condition of humanity that Bert enumerates have been put on a sort of a “credit card of history”. Interest and compound interest IS accruing, and repayments will fall due soonish.
Hell, even the financial cost of these improvements is building: China’s national debt is projected to blow out to 27 trillion US$, current US national debt is at 36 trillion US$ and counting. Combined EU debt stands at 15.3 trillion US$ …
Amongst other drawbacks, capitalism seems a rather expensive economic arrangement to operate.
Unsustainably expensive …!?
Sigh. The red haired (dyed I’m betting) and rabid raving nut case Paween has a giant hissy fit and brain fart.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/nov/07/pauline-hanson-emily-kim-racial-vilification-allegation-one-nation-ntwnfb
re. GL’s post, Hanson’s dummy spit is typical of people of her ilk; small-minded armchair bullies who dish it out but can’t take it. Love how Councillor Kim’s barrister described Hanson as a “picayune politician” (which had me reaching for the dictionary)… so aptly described.
The other thing that struck me was the comparison between the hag Hanson’s ravaged visage and the beauty of Cr. Kim. The more Pawleen ages the uglier she becomes; I suspect there’s an element of envy, jealousy, hatred there as well.
What is about people who live in glass houses shouldn’t stow thrones?
I think Canguro has summed it up neatly. Less and less do I regret the running down of my time. I’ve seen the best this world has to offer and it’s all decay and dissolution from here.
Yes indeed Steve Davis, Canguro & Arnd,
I had a friend (long gone now) who mused, “Our memory is largely conditioned to remember the tyrannies we experience, so that we don’t allow them in the future. Like, we never forget when we burned our hand on the stove, so we’re more careful in future.” Good point.
Yet, we are affected without knowing, by many things, like the (approx) 78,000 man-made toxins introduced to our environment, along with the toxic affects brought by climate change. Most of them are undetectable by our ordinary senses, so many folk tend to ignore them lest they interfere with a ‘blue sky’ perspective – in some ‘schools’ it’s uncool to be anxious, and in others it maybe only cool where God is involved. This ignorance (and concomitant inaction) brings with it huge cost to the biology and economy of the environment, and ourselves individually, and our descendents.
So does this melt our brains and our psychological responses?
Here’s a short podcast from ABC RN’s Future Tense, melting brains and anxiety. An interesting scientific perspective from the likes of neuroscientists and psychologists in the field, reporting on and encouraging inter-modal research and assessment of such affects as driven by climate change (for example). There’s further information references at the bottom of the podcast page. It’s well worth a listen and a read.
Whilst kicking back on northern beaches (for the time being), although it can’t be seen or smelled, thoughts about the hole in the ozone layer, increased penetration / reflection of solar radiation, the melting of the antarctic ice sheet, and the 6 months of inordinate icy winds and no rain in western Victoria, and its effect on agriculture (and us) may give pause for thought and discussion.
Isn’t it amazing how the smallest things can blow up to be a big argument, like for example a racist head of a racist party being miffed for being called out as being racist.
Or again, my nemesis sending me stuff he hopes will get under my skin, but I either choose to ignore or respond by sending him beautiful music, today it is Mozart to comfort him.
I look outside and the sun has risen, it is another beautiful day, I have things to do to help some people moving furniture, another, while I have the trailer hooked up needs some soil for his garden and a grand daughter’s engagement party to morrow, so need to purchase the artwork I have promised her.
Life is good. There are things I can control, and there are many things I cannot control, I cannot stop One Nation from being a racist party led by a racist, I cannot stop the genocide in Gaza and the West Bank. But I can get a few mates together to help out some people who need a bit of help.
Bert,
I had a couple of people, who until recently, did the same with sending crap every day for a few weeks in the hope of a bite. For some reason they stopped, maybe because I kept continually sending the following links in reply.
and
Terence, thanks for that chutney recipe. Sounds delicious!
Knitting tips? Macrame patterns? During my 15 years hanging off trees and roofs as SES volunteer, I learnt quite a few useful knots. Seeing how Bert shifts other people’s stuff about the place in his trailer, he might find the Truckie’s Hitch useful? For example.
The absolute greed of bloody Rinehart never ceases to amaze and sicken me.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/western-australia/watch-and-learn-rinehart-lauds-trump-policies-as-lesson-for-australia-20241108-p5kp1z.html