Get ready! An early election is coming
Get ready! We are 4 months out from a federal election. It’s not the polling that has determined this will happen, it’s the roadblock ahead.
Between the 4th August this year, the earliest an election can be called and the 19th May next year, the latest, there is a minefield of events that the Coalition will not want to compete with, in its attempts to stay in power.
The most difficult are the Victorian state election in November and the NSW state election in March 2018. Throw in the AFL and NRL football finals in late September/early October, Christmas, School holidays and Easter and it’s obvious.
Politically speaking, this August or early September is the only clear-air time realistically available for the government to try to redeem itself.
And the first opportunity for redemption will be the May budget, next week. Already, the signs are that it will be as generous as it can be for a government that realises it needs redemption.
The promise of tax cuts resulting from higher company tax revenue, a higher job participation rate, the abandonment of the Medicare levy hike, all indicate the government has already locked in a date with destiny.
They will be able to spruik a lower than expected deficit and a better than projected surplus in 2020/21. They will tell us that the economy is strong (it isn’t), that business is investing ((they aren’t), that they stopped the boats (actually we don’t know) and that Labor will be soft on immigration (simply not true).
They will tell us that without them in charge, the economy will collapse, that our international relations with the USA will be damaged, that Indonesia will invade us, that the sky will fall in, that God has chosen them to rule.
These are the credentials they will present to us over the coming months. This is what they believe will save them. Never mind their incompetent handling of the Banking Royal Commission or their massive accumulation of what is wrongly referred to, as the national debt.
Never mind the absence of meaningful policies, their internal squabbling, the Abbott factor, the Joyce factor, the Cash factor, their broken promises, the savage spending cuts that have devastated community groups across the country, the NBN debacle, the shameful inaction when dealing with Manus Island detainees, never mind all that and more.
They realise too, that the planned electoral redistribution, which does not favour the Coalition, may not be finalised in time for an early poll. That redistribution renders two liberal seats notionally Labor and several others marginal.
Labor, in the meantime, have not been asleep at the wheel. They realised an early election was probable a year ago and have been on an election footing for some months.
Their recent policy announcements on franking credits, no company tax cuts, removing the GST on tampons, the establishment of a federal ICAC, all point to a party ready to go to the people.
The election battle will be a tale of two parallel approaches. Labor will concentrate on micro issues, that of household debt, housing affordability, wages, the cost of living and equality, while the Coalition will present the broader picture of company profits, employment growth and projected budget surpluses and union thuggery.
From the Coalition’s point of view, the rhetoric will be mind-blowing, perhaps overwhelming. In the absence of a policy framework, they will be relentlessly attacking Labor, saying anything to mask their deception and their ignorance.
They will try to scare the bejesus out of us. The truth of it, however, will be easy to discern. They will say, “judge us on what we say, not on what we do,” a clear indication that they are a policy vacuum.
Without a proper policy framework, the coalition are always reactionary. Labor, on the other hand, will demonstrate how proper economic management should be, when fit for purpose. Malcolm Turnbull is also conscious of the possibility of a leadership challenge before the end of the year, courtesy of a slip of the tongue by Barnaby Joyce.
They are a desperate rabble and determined to stay in power. However, it will be up to us to decide and that will happen either in late August or early September,
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WHOOT WHOOH – does this mean that I get to endure the drivel from Jobesn Growthe – The Belgian Waffler for the next four months?
Labor needs to be clear about its stance on coal fired power , coal mines, fracking, fossil fuel emissions and closing the off shore hell holes.
Jamboree … I second your comment.
“The Prime Minister has requested all preselections be finalised by June at the latest.”
Now that the IPA is spruiking the Murdoch family mantra of “shut down the ABC” because Murdoch Media cannot make enough profit with the competition from a respected government funded media organisation staffed by credible objective journalists rather than loud-mouthed, self-important egomaniacs, can we expect the MSM to provide a “balanced” report of public opinion of proposed government policies?
Well … what has been the track record since 1975????
That the coalition is even in the election race beggars belief. What has been literally years of almost a weekly fiasco, crisis, debacle, scandal, cock up or confluence of events should be enough to consign this government to the dust bin of history. The latest cluster of the banking royal commission has taken a huge bite out the most senior government minister’s collective arse. The look on Barrie Cassidy’s face during the Kelly O’Dwyer train wreck interview was priceless. Then we have the BCA now coming out strongly for Malcolm. Great timing there sure to be a big help. The government’s nut spinners (media advisers) are about to really earn their money if an election is called for this year.
Personally, I think Malcolm is in for an electoral spanking whenever he calls it.
Jamboree, Labor is clear on those things. You just don’t like the answer and aren’t interested in doing the work to try make any impact to policy. x.x
Looking forward to an early election, a change of political direction. Although, as Jamboree noted:
Labor needs to be clear about its stance on coal fired power , coal mines, fracking, fossil fuel emissions and closing the off shore hell holes.
To which can be added reducing the defence budget.
Expect some kind of security scare apart from trying to buy votes. The LNP pushed the notion of a huge deficit in 2013, now it is double; so by LNP ideology they should not be spending big for the next election.
The LNP denial of climate change shown by promoting new coal mines, development of new coal fired power stations, and fracking is completely reckless. What’s happening in relation to emissions also does not bare close scrutiny.
On a side note: If anyone should resign it’s the disgusting excuse for a treasurer –
On offshore indefinite detention, Labor is well aware that should they blink on this Dutton is ready with an avalanche of hysteria about Labor sending welcome messages to people smugglers and rolling out the red carpet to boatloads of asylum seekers who, incidentally, will all drown on this perilous voyage.
Labor have said that they will expedite the resettlement of those held on Manus and Nauru within 90 days and New Zealand will be an obvious first choice as will an agreement with the UNHCR to lift our refugee intake with the UN assisting in third country settlement of those currently held in indefinite detention.
I think we are all appalled that the coalition have done very little for those in long term offshore detention during the five years that they have been in office : there is a reason for this and that is Dutton’s view that this is is his trump card against Labor.
As regards coal and new mines, there will be more to come but Shorten has made it clear that coal has an important but diminishing role in the future of the Australian economy and energy policy : natural economic forces are already indicating that renewables are a better and cheaper long term approach to global energy needs, but, again, the coalition are past-masters at scare campaigns and they just love the prospect of saying that Labor will turn the lights out.
It’s all a question of tactics and never, ever leading with your chin !
Very informatively and well said Terry 2. The L/NP have a massive propaganda machine, The Main Stream Media, that is extremely well funded and resourced and just waiting to turn a principled Labor policy into a ” we will all be ruined” and ” the sky will fall in” scare campaign to turn the gullible and naive to vote against their own self interest or a more descriptive way of putting it is “turkeys voting for Christmas”.
As I keep asking: What can we do to move the coalition primary vote down from 38%? Any ideas?
This is going to be an election where Australia’s young people will make all the difference. Stuffy, authoritarian, deceitful, anglo-God-cringing, hypocritical conservatism and it’s ugly cousin, faux liberalism are going to be thrown out and told never to darken the halls of our parliament again.
Pyne was on the radio today claiming that the coalition had fixed the economy by creating 400,000 jobs over the past year. What he did NOT say was that there has been a decline in HOURS worked. This means that there have beed an extra 400,000 to share those few hours of work with this already in the work force. These claims of ‘good management’ go unchallenged.
According to the latest Labour Force Survey from the ABS…..
Over the past year, the labour force has increased by 369,500 persons and trend employment increased by 376,100 persons – the number of unemployed decreased by 6,700 persons leaving 735,000 unemployed.
Despite the proportion of part time work decreasing by 0.1 percentage points over the past 12 months, the average hours worked per employed person also decreased slightly to around 32.0 hours per week.
I do not think an election will be called until they get rid of Malcolm Turnbull. Turnbull now no longer has credibility, so his one asset is dissipated.
Time to stand your ground and say NO to the Turnbulls, Joyces, Duttons, Morrisons, Cash, Tudges, and all the other lying tyrants, the Liberals, Nationals, PHON, Australian Conservatives and their cross bench enthusiasts, indeed anyone who is as much as luke warm towards them.
And that certainly means turning a deaf ear to the corporate business lobby who will be spending more than $26 million to indoctrinate us, lie to us, persuade us, threaten us, bore us, intimidate us, bribe us, misinform us, obfuscate every fact and evidence to obscure our understanding of the truth and what is best for us. Do NOT listen to them.
And switch off the TV every time you sense a Liberal or government ad coming including our ad-free ABC. Let them both spend all they’ve got till they are blue in the face and eventually realise there’s a limit to what dirty money and electoral fraud can buy. Yes that means you too Murdoch, don’t buy any of his News Corp papers because they will all obfuscate, lie and sell their souls to get back in power.
Stand your ground!
The standard LNP bullshit tsunami is on its way
And if you get any election material with a return envelope with a postage paid stamp on it from the Coalition, send it back with nothing inside, or whatever you like other than whatever form they are trying to use to collect data on you or potentially ‘lose’ your vote. You could try pasting the envelope on a package containing a brick? That way, not only do you use up their election funding, you also keep posties employed 🙂
I should add that Labor do the same thing. Their’s I will throw in the bin as my contribution to their funding whilst maintaining my anger at the intrusion.
Totaram, to remove the National$ is to tell all the country women that “Women supporting ADULTERERS support National$”.
To be effective in southern NSW and South Australia shout; “Farmers supporting MDB WATER THEFT support National$”.
Thank you Barnyard Joke, representative of the National$ in New England.
Antony Green is convinced there will be no Election in 2018
Ladbrokes are offering odds of 5/1 about an election in 2018
Seems like Malcolm will cling to power with every sinew of his sinister fingers and people can cool down and be ready for 2019.
That surely gives MSM, the Mining Council the Business Council and all the other supporters of a corrupt LNP Government plenty of time to build up a war chest and launch a massive “KillBill” offensive and wall to wall anti Labor campaigns.
I for one do not feel confident that the ALP are home and hosed. A little MSM onside with Turnbull and the polls get back to 51/49.
Blanket coverage and a smiling Malcolm could well get another run
What a huge steaming pile of bullshit –
“But BCA chief executive Jennifer Westacott rejected claims the organisation would effectively be campaigning for the Coalition.
“The Business Council is not and never will be a partisan organisation, our commitment is to good policy not politics,” Ms Westacott said on Tuesday.”
When did Green say that because I heard him say there was a “high likelihood of a Commonwealth election in September-October 2018” for the following reasons:
“November 2018 and March 2019 are messy due to state election complications. December elections have gone out of style, while February elections are also rare.
The Easter weekend in 2019 is 19-22 April followed by Anzac Day the same week, taking a mid-campaign slice out of any attempt at holding an election in May 2019.
A May election would almost certainly need the passage of a supply bill before the election, while a March election would probably require the first budget of the new parliament to be deferred until August.”
There may also be an added incentive to go before the seat redistribution which does not favour the Coalition.
Surely the strongest opposition Labor will face is from apathy, this tory government has ripped away spending income from millions of working class Australians by their policies of removing government services, so they now need to be paid for. Three million plus Aussies are now “existing” below the poverty line, as funds are transferred away from the working class and into the pockets of the wealthy.
The greatest trick the devil ever played was “getting the working class to vote for the wealthy.”
“Antony, when would you see as the most advantageous time for Malcolm Turnbull to call an election, with holidays Grand finals and all maner of events upcoming.
Verified account @AntonyGreenABC
But wouldn’t Turnbull be better off going early before challenge.. Remember he really thinks he could win.. especially when you put in three million dollars to save your job next time 😩🤔
Verified account @AntonyGreenABC
I don’t think there will be a challenge.
Kind of interesting that the so-called expert has done a complete turnaround. The impediments to next year that he outlined before still hold. When next year? Won’t be January. Unlikely to be February because that would entail campaigning through the holidays. March is the NSW election. April has Easter and ANZAC Day. They have to go by May 18 if they want a normal half-senate election and they won’t want to do another budget.
Seems very messy to me if they wait. Mal’s call to have preselections finished by June indicates to me that he is setting the scene and will go early if the budget goes over well.
I’d like Labor to prioritize jobs and low wage growth.
Clearly we have seen jobs growth but the overall unemployment rate has barely moved and I suggest will not under current policies.
It’s probably a pipedream for now but I want a combination of a substantial increase in Newstart (somewhere near the DSP rate) and some sort of job creation scheme which offers work to those who want to work but can’t get it for whatever reason. I prefer the Job Guarantee model which would offer public/social work at a living wage (the minimum wage at least plus ancillary benefits and training) as an automatic stabiliser for the economy. The benefits to the unemployed would be huge. I am not talking about “work for the dole”- the JG would be voluntary, those that do not want to participate can stay on Newstart.
If Labor did something like that it would be a sign that it is finally ditching the neoliberal “metooism” that has characterised economics and politics over the last three or more decades.
Labor need to be careful on coal etc as the Coalition will wedge them; best to straddle the fence on that for now.
It shot me down in flames as I had placed a sizeable bet on it being 15 or 22 September 2018 after what I’d previously read online
Townsvilleblog well said and I totally agree!
Also agree with Jamboree.
People who say that labor has clear policies and that we “just don’t like their answers” are seriously deluded. Same people complain that the Murdoch Media is stealing elections. Same people prefer to be losing victims than realise the extent of change that is required to bring Labor kicking and screaming into the 20th Century.
Opposition means to oppose not to meekly offer watered down versions of the same.
Opposing Liberal means literally opposing the domination of big business, big banks, big coal and big pharma.
Labor can’t do it under its current ideology. Unions can’t exist without the “big” end of town, No big business = no jobs = no unions
How and if Labor finds the solution to this conundrum will define its future in politics.
I wouldn’t tear up the ticket just yet.
Mick Byron, what you have quoted Antony Green as saying, does not contradict Kaye Lee’s quote from Green. I agree with him that for the Coalition, next year would be the most advantageous time for an election. But the reality is that next year is so crowded out that it may not be realistically possible, or wise. Kaye, Green hasn’t done a turnaround. He was answering a direct question and his opinion about a possible challenge, not giving his opinion of the likely time an election will be called.
There are other things that might influence the decision too.
They still haven’t ruled on Katie Gallagher’s eligibility and that could open a whole can of worms. Would the Coalition want to contest lots of by-elections? Combined with state elections there could be serious voter fatigue.
Also, can they beat the seat redistributions? Not sure when they are happenning – I think that is up to the states?
Another thing – that jobs boost has been dropping off over the last few months. They are not going to be able to continue claiming they have created 400,000 jobs in the last twelve months – it’s already down to 376,100 at the end of March which is only a few thousand above population growth of the workforce.
Also, the boost in employment and growth has been largely funded by public spending on infrastructure and defence. That can’t keep us going forever without blowing the budget out further.
I’m sick of early elections. Governments now are always on the election footing, there is no lull. I can’t stand the stupid ads from both sides. You can’t even escape from it online these days. Any snail mail from them goes straight to the bin unopened, although I do like the brick suggestion. I for one, hope it does drag out until next year. ALP will romp in anyway, so MT would be a fool to call an early one.
As for “Labor soft on immigration (simply not true)”, come on are you serious? Maybe compared to the Greens, that’s all
I like to take any electoral junk mail, from the LNP in particular, and return it by hand and tell them they can send it to another “deserving” potential voter. The looks on their faces brightens my day up no end.
I wasn’t contradicting Kaye Lee, just stating what I had read online.
He says next year, is the “expert” so I’ll go along with that even though my pocket will suffer..
there was much more to the online conversation as to why not this year with State elections, football-Xmas- school holidays mix up with the Senate etc but it seems that Turnbull wants a full return on the $2 million or whatever it cost him to buy the job and will stick there like shit to a blanket
In addition, I wonder if the finalising (if not extended) of the RC into the Finance sector will have any bearing on an elections date.
As for Mal’s $2 million donation – wondering what, if, any strings attached, I mean, surely he is a more astute business man than he is a politician?
You bet there is an election coming up the kill Bill and Labor has-been on for werks ,now we have the BCA joining in to look after there cash cow ,be ready voters ,be afraid if this lying decieteful government gets another term in power
I think Turnbull may call an early election, to forestall being thrown out as PM should he do yet more poor op polls. Abbott watches him the way the Crocodile watched Captain Hook.
Uh oh….the people of Perth are off to a by-election. Labor’s Tim Hammond has resigned.
The thing that worries me about the next election is the use of the same insidious targeted lies that got Trump elected in USA, and gave the UK Brexit.
Cambridge Analytica — the same right-wing arseholes who worked their evil magic for both the aforementioned disasters — have been in sneaky talks with the Business Council of Australia (BCA). The BCA are putting $26 million into the propaganda effort to win the election for the LNP, and has set up front groups including a wholly owned subsidiary called “Centre Ground”, whose directors include former Liberal Party acting federal director Andrew Bragg.
They will focus on persuading swing voters, so probably none of us here will see any of their sleazy arguments and ads. They’ll use social media, especially facebook, and possibly twitter, using lies to scare, outrage, and anger people who don’t know better, in order to push them to vote for the LNP, or not vote at all. This is the tactic that was successfully used to boot the Labor government out of South Australia.
The Greens tried recently to get a motion to condemn Cambridge Analytica and for a review of privacy regulations in Australia. They also want exemptions in the Privacy Act for politicians and political parties to be removed. But they failed. Why? Apparently both Labor and LNP want to preserve this kind of evil power for themselves.
I should have mentioned this in my comment:
Dark ads matter
The integrity of our electoral system is about to be tested
written by Paddy Manning
That’s an example of wishin and hopin. Already some big companies are running to the back door.
Seems to me that the big end of town is on the nose and to contribute would be brand suicide, particularly when certain BCA members are known tax avoiders in Australia while others aid and abet such evasion – read the big 4 Accountancy companies. When it comes to politics Westacott is a dud with a tin ear and for that we should be grateful.
Matters Not, declining to comment doesn’t mean they won’t still be quietly contributing to the $26 million (which, really, is chicken feed — some of the CEOs could pay for it out of their pocket-money). Nevertheless, it would be good if you’re right.
Hmmm… It occurs to me that if they were not contributing to the propaganda campaign they would simply say so. The fact that they’re declining to comment would seem to indicate that they are contributing, but are aware of how tainted the whole thing is, so don’t want it known.
ME, while they might chose not to comment today that won’t make the issue go away in the longer term. I assume that GetUp will press for more information and if there’s no denial then GetUp will proceed on the assumption that the contribution is, was or will be made. Thus to proceed down the BCA route might be a bridge too far for most companies with a reputation to defend.
I suspect a strategic retreat might be in order – with the same contribution made perhaps via more surreptitious avenues.
While Cambridge Analytica might peddle that line for commercial reasons, the evidence for such claims is still to be validated. While the analysis of mass data and micro targeting is of concern at the moment (and likely to be even more concerning in the future) to assert that the election of Trump and Brexit can be explained (only) via targeted lies seems fanciful.
Seems to me that simplistic analysis is not helpful and the explanation of both events is much more complicated.
Lies, to be politically successful, have to be based on a kernel of truth.
Matters not, I’d like to agree with your scepticism however I believe the reality is much more bleak, this is the original article which I read Oct/Nov last year.
I was amazed the amount of time it took to break here, and then once it did, it was somewhat under-reported
Matters Not, it’s actually not simplistic. The horrible elegance of Cambridge Analytica’s technique is to find individuals who can be shifted, then adapt a message that will have maximum effect upon them. For instance, if they have racist fears then those fears are stoked by lies about foreigners taking over. If they hate banks then they’re fed anti-semitic conspiracy theories. If they’re black and fear the dominant institutions they are told what they want to hear. If they are disillusioned, but progressive they’re fed stuff to make them think it’s all worthless, that they’re all corrupt and that not voting is a protest vote. Creating all these specialised messages is complicated. And the mathematics behind finding those individuals is not simple either.
But of course, there’s more to it than that. Russia has apparently been dabbling in many elections around the world too. We’ve been hearing how they’ve been affecting the election in USA, but there’s some indication they were doing things in UK too, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they have some effect here (though I don’t think there’d be much gain for them here).
And of course there’s the mainstream media — some of it dirty, some of it apparently pretty clueless (for example the stupid way they gave Trump countless hours of airtime just because he could be relied upon to say stupid and/or controversial things).
I don’t know how much effect political advertisements have anymore, but deep pockets pay for them too.
For me, Cambridge Analytica is the most worrying. They are the most subversive and they put a lot of effort into working out where they may apply the least pressure to get the biggest result. And they operate almost entirely out of sight — only those most susceptible to their messages will see them. To the rest of society they will be invisible.
Let’s not forget Parakeelia – the money-laundering information gathering tool of the Liberal Party.
Tony Nutt disappeared from view – I wonder if they saw the coming storm concerning Cambridge Analytica
Matters Not, you said, “Lies, to be politically successful, have to be based on a kernel of truth.”
A friend said something similar to me earlier today, but I really don’t think it’s correct.
While some political lies might have an element of truth, other political lies can be complete fabrications. Donald Trump has taken this to its extreme. He simply says anything that will get a rise out of his audience. It doesn’t need to have any connection with truth at all (the biggest presidential inauguration audience ever). The LNP often concoct lies that have no connection with reality too. The utter drivel about illness from windmills, for example, or Greg Hunt being the greatest Minister for the Environment. I don’t think Malcolm Roberts ever said anything even remotely connected to reality in the delusional stream of lies he spouted.
Just listened to Westacott on Radio National while on my morning walk. She took Fran on a Gish Gallop – admitting that yes she had met Cambridge Analytica (once) while in the US but made the decision not to proceed. Possibly read the headlines in the WSJ as I did much earlier today.
Seems to me that the election of Trump and the result of the Brexit campaign is/are multi-causal. Let’s not forget Clinton received approximately 3 million more votes than Trump. Let’s not forget also that Crosby Textor and their small focus groups came up with Howard’s will slogan some years ago **We shall decide who comes … **
While on the subject of Fran, she also missed crucial opportunities (re methodology) when speaking with Andrew Charlton in an earlier piece.
Influencing voting behaviour can certainly be detected but I don’t think it can be precisely measured. As for lies and ideology, I will leave that for later.
We strive to be informed, here at AIMN.
We are sadly aware of a majority who do not want to know any more than what the MSM, politicians, assorted authority figures want us to know – blissful ignorance.
Even the best informed of any of us, only see the tip of the iceberg. Those who do know everything tend to go crazy – which is probably a mercy …
My husband works really long hours six days a week. When he gets home, we usually sit on the verandah with a glass of wine and debrief about the day. When I tell him what has been going on in politics, he listens for a little while and then spits in disgust “I don’t want to hear any more. I have enough to worry about.” He is a smart caring man but he can only take on board so much. And that is the problem. The liars can get away with it because people don;’t have time or energy to research what they are being told, they cannot bear taking on another struggle.
I completely understand your husband’s feelings – when I was working full-time, all I could stomach when I got home (if I was in time) was to watch the Antiques Roadshow.
The liars can get away with it because people don’t have time or energy to research what they are being told
Exactly. There are many vested interests in keeping the proletariat too busy or too poor to pay attention – let alone investigate.
When we hear of politicians claiming they could live on Newstart – they are not necessarily ignorant of the daily struggle – they lie to maintain their own fiction.
I applaud you, Kaye Lee, for your tireless efforts of deep sea diving, into the cold and dark, pulling together facts into something AIMers can read (and all contributors to AIM).
[I don’t know how you and John Lord manage to be, not only so prolific, but so utterly cogent]
I remember watching a show about a man who knew a great deal of Aboriginal folklore. He said he felt a real duty to pass on what he knew. In his case, it was to keep the knowledge alive. In my case, it is because I cannot stand being lied to. Writing helps me expunge that anger and helps stop it all whirling around in my head. Conversing with people at the AIMN reminds me that there are others that know the truth. It makes it easier to bear.