Remember all that nonsense about debt and deficit disasters, budget emergencies and how the Liberals were the only ones capable of managing the economy? What a waste of space Joe Hockey was as treasurer. What a similar waste Scott Morrison is threatening to be.
Next month’s MYEFO is going to tell an interesting story, not the least of which will be to expose those “adults” supposedly back in charge, for the economic fraudsters they are.
For those not paying attention, MYEFO (the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook) is a kind of Actuals versus Estimates exercise that tells us how good or bad we are travelling compared with the budget brought down six months earlier.
What it will tell us is that revenue estimates in the May budget will not be met and that the deficit has blown out further than estimated in the May budget.
Yet it will be against these depressing numbers that these fraudsters running our country’s finances want to bring in tax cuts for the overpaid corporate contributors to their party’s election funds.
Think about that for a minute. Revenue is in decline, the deficit is increasing but Morrison et al are talking about tax cuts. As at today, the Federal Government interest bearing debt is $398 billion (up from $284 billion two years ago) and any ‘credible path back to surplus’ is a mirage. But, make no mistake about it, tax cuts are on the table.
Annual wage growth in the private sector to September was 2.1%, the lowest in the 18 year history of the wage/price index. If we don’t have wages growth we don’t have income tax growth. It’s not rocket science. But Morrison wants to deliver income tax cuts. What he should be promoting is wage increases.
Treasury are already revising their forecasts down for the upcoming MYEFO. Don’t be surprised if the detail isn’t released until two minutes before midnight on Christmas Eve when Santa is sliding down a chimney somewhere and mums and dads haven’t yet counted up all that additional credit card debt they have taken on.
At that point MYEFO will be the furthest thing from their minds, all their attention being absorbed by the festivities. Furthermore, all the politicians will be on a well-earned(?) break and our leading MSM economic editors won’t be able to quiz anyone about the results.
A few weeks later, everyone will be enjoying the summer sun and who will care?
Well, let’s not forget, 2016 is an election year and if we take Malcolm Turnbull’s word that the government will run its full term, another budget will be required in May. Will Scott Morrison still favour tax cuts when the awful truth about revenue dawns on him?
At the moment everybody loves Malcolm Turnbull. Malcolm is even the darling of Labor voters. After two years of Tony Abbott, who wouldn’t be? But a reckoning of sorts must eventually take place and the reality of failed economic supervision under Liberal leadership will become clear even to the most rusted-on conservative.
If Labor wants to restore its fading image it doesn’t have a lot of time and had better start doing something about it now. Its best hope, leadership speculation to one side, is to hammer home the state of the economy and the failed experiment of putting the adults back in charge, because, while everyone loves Malcolm, they will eventually tune in to what affects them most… their hip pocket.
The Liberals played that card relentlessly against Labor in 2013. Now it should be payback time.
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