Wednesday, 7 March 2018
1. If only one thing came out of the Tasmanian election it must certainly be that money speaks. The Liberals’ win relied on untold pokies cash … it’s a bad precedent. When certain vested interests decide they want something and they have the cash there is nothing to stop them. It has been said that pokies interests plowed $5 million into advertising but you won’t find it in the donations to be revealed in 18 months time. Repeat, “18 Months.” It has all gone through secondary channels so to avoid the Liberals taking any flak.
Will, Will Hodgman’s win, always be tainted with the word corruption. That he bought the election. It is an unwanted precedent in Australian politics and we need to find a solution to political donations sooner rather than later. As it stands now any industry with deep enough pockets can, as the mining industry did in 2002, place themselves above any Government decision that affects them.
2. Back to the Federal scene, Jacqueline Maley wrote in yesterdays SMH:
“The government he leads looks chaotic and self-absorbed. An atmosphere of decadence and depravity engulfs the whole of Canberra, particularly when you stir in questions over expenses entitlements together with the sex.”
Well, I have been consistently saying that for two years. She went on to say.
“Our government has become a Mexican Telenovela. Over the last three weeks, the nation has gasped its way through all the main soap opera tropes, played out on the political stage. The scandalous, boundary-crossing affair. The scorned wife. The pregnant mistress. On Sunday we woke to questions over the paternity of the love child.”
She is totally correct of course but it doesn’t explain why Newspoll seemed to be set in concrete and wouldn’t budge. By the way, a Telenovela is a South American Soap Opera. There are other opinions, of course, on Newspoll.
.My Facebook friend Tim sent me this:
“Labor polling mirrors Newspoll. But the situation is closer in marginal government seats. Remember when Latham and Beazley were leader, Labor led in the polls but lost.”
This one is a bit lengthy but Russell Green throws in some good thoughts.
“Since the election in 2013 when the coalition won power, they have had runs of consecutive losing Newspolls of 30 and now 28. The coalition won government in September 2013 by December 2013 Labor were already ahead of the coalition 52-48. So apart from 1 poll in April 2014 (just prior to the INFAMOUS 2014 Budget) that poll was 49 – 51 they have been behind.
This budget was delivered on 13/05/2014, the next Newspoll was on 18/05/2014 the result was 55 – 45 Labor. The decline in the coalition vote had started almost as soon as they won the election in 2013. The low point for Labor in the polls was 27/10/2013 where they were 44 – 56, by early December in 2013 Labor has ahead 52 – 48, so to say that the 2014 budget was the reason for the decline in support of Abbott’s government is not true, the decline had started almost as soon as they were elected.
I use this as an illustration, that for almost the entire time we have had a coalition government they have been on the nose of the Australian Public.
What I think is happening here with all the terrible performance being taken into account the poll result may appear to be low, it is, in fact, an entrenched position. 53% and so consistently. I believe that Labor will win the next election comfortably and there is little the Coalition can do about it.
I go back to the polls of 2015 – 2016. In February 2015 Labor were 57 – 43 ahead, by September 2015 their lead had dropped to 53-47, that was on 07/09/2015. The next poll was on 21/09/2015, where the Coalition had pulled ahead 51 – 49. So what happened? Well, on the 20/09/2015, Turnbull removed Abbott and became PM. Turnbull managed to hold a lead until the election in July 2015, they were 2% down just before the budget of 2015.
The election was called and the bounce that they got from the Budget was enough for them to carry the election, albeit by 1 seat. The next 2 polls were conducted at the end of August and the Middle of September it was 50 – 50 and from the end of September, where the Coalition had fallen to 52 – 48, and give or take a few increases in the gap and also falls, it has largely remained at 53 – 47 – hence the 28 consecutive poll losses.
I believe that the history of this government has been so consistently awful that the only way out for them was to change leader. The Liberals were lucky that they had a ready-made replacement in the wings, even though we are back at that pre-Turnbull coop numbers, what is different is who can take over the leadership.
There are many suitors, none of whom have the cachet of Turnbull (at the time he won). So I fear (not really) that the Liberals are tied to Turnbull until the next election. When Labor replaced Julia with Rudd, it was largely to save seats. The Liberals have no such luxury.”
And that folks, is all I have for today. My apologies for being a bit tardy but I’m feeling a touch unwell.
My thought for the day.
“Life is an experience of random often unidentifiable patterns and indiscriminate consequences that don’t always have order nor require explanation”