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Day to Day Politics: Tassie. An Island where money speaks!

Wednesday, 7 March 2018

1.  If only one thing came out of the Tasmanian election it must certainly be that money speaks. The Liberals’ win relied on untold pokies cash … it’s a bad precedent. When certain vested interests decide they want something and they have the cash there is nothing to stop them. It has been said that pokies interests plowed $5 million into advertising but you won’t find it in the donations to be revealed in 18 months time. Repeat, “18 Months.” It has all gone through secondary channels so to avoid the Liberals taking any flak.

Will, Will Hodgman’s win, always be tainted with the word corruption. That he bought the election. It is an unwanted precedent in Australian politics and we need to find a solution to political donations sooner rather than later. As it stands now any industry with deep enough pockets can, as the mining industry did in 2002, place themselves above any Government decision that affects them.

2. Back to the Federal scene, Jacqueline Maley wrote in yesterdays SMH:

“The government he leads looks chaotic and self-absorbed. An atmosphere of decadence and depravity engulfs the whole of Canberra, particularly when you stir in questions over expenses entitlements together with the sex.”

Well, I have been consistently saying that for two years. She went on to say.

“Our government has become a Mexican Telenovela. Over the last three weeks, the nation has gasped its way through all the main soap opera tropes, played out on the political stage. The scandalous, boundary-crossing affair. The scorned wife. The pregnant mistress. On Sunday we woke to questions over the paternity of the love child.”

She is totally correct of course but it doesn’t explain why Newspoll seemed to be set in concrete and wouldn’t budge. By the way, a Telenovela is a South American Soap Opera. There are other opinions, of course, on Newspoll.

.My Facebook friend Tim sent me this:

“Labor polling mirrors Newspoll. But the situation is closer in marginal government seats. Remember when Latham and Beazley were leader, Labor led in the polls but lost.”

This one is a bit lengthy but Russell Green throws in some good thoughts.

“Since the election in 2013 when the coalition won power, they have had runs of consecutive losing Newspolls of 30 and now 28. The coalition won government in September 2013 by December 2013 Labor were already ahead of the coalition 52-48. So apart from 1 poll in April 2014 (just prior to the INFAMOUS 2014 Budget) that poll was 49 – 51 they have been behind.

This budget was delivered on 13/05/2014, the next Newspoll was on 18/05/2014 the result was 55 – 45 Labor. The decline in the coalition vote had started almost as soon as they won the election in 2013. The low point for Labor in the polls was 27/10/2013 where they were 44 – 56, by early December in 2013 Labor has ahead 52 – 48, so to say that the 2014 budget was the reason for the decline in support of Abbott’s government is not true, the decline had started almost as soon as they were elected.

I use this as an illustration, that for almost the entire time we have had a coalition government they have been on the nose of the Australian Public.

What I think is happening here with all the terrible performance being taken into account the poll result may appear to be low, it is, in fact, an entrenched position. 53% and so consistently. I believe that Labor will win the next election comfortably and there is little the Coalition can do about it.

I go back to the polls of 2015 – 2016. In February 2015 Labor were 57 – 43 ahead, by September 2015 their lead had dropped to 53-47, that was on 07/09/2015. The next poll was on 21/09/2015, where the Coalition had pulled ahead 51 – 49. So what happened? Well, on the 20/09/2015, Turnbull removed Abbott and became PM. Turnbull managed to hold a lead until the election in July 2015, they were 2% down just before the budget of 2015.

The election was called and the bounce that they got from the Budget was enough for them to carry the election, albeit by 1 seat. The next 2 polls were conducted at the end of August and the Middle of September it was 50 – 50 and from the end of September, where the Coalition had fallen to 52 – 48, and give or take a few increases in the gap and also falls, it has largely remained at 53 – 47 –  hence the 28 consecutive poll losses.

I believe that the history of this government has been so consistently awful that the only way out for them was to change leader.  The Liberals were lucky that they had a ready-made replacement in the wings, even though we are back at that pre-Turnbull coop numbers, what is different is who can take over the leadership.

There are many suitors, none of whom have the cachet of Turnbull (at the time he won). So I fear (not really) that the Liberals are tied to Turnbull until the next election. When Labor replaced Julia with Rudd, it was largely to save seats. The Liberals have no such luxury.”

And that folks, is all I have for today. My apologies for being a bit tardy but I’m feeling a touch unwell.

My thought for the day.

“Life is an experience of random often unidentifiable patterns and indiscriminate consequences that don’t always have order nor require explanation”


24 comments

  1. Bert

    Hope you feel better soon Mr Lord

  2. paul walter

    As Bert says..

    The timidity of the Australian people remains an enduring puzzle for this contributor.

  3. bearbrooke

    I think you are right, Labor will win the next election comfortably. The reasons for this are various, which is bleedin’ obvious, yet there is the one core issue that’s not discussed often enough. It ‘was’ the 2014 budget — it was an imposition on the nation that reneged a profusion of electioneering commitments the Coalition made. Details of that budget are fairly important but picking it to bits distracts from the damage it did to the Coalition. Abbott was already in decline because the populace was learning his dishonesty — we learn politicians: we learned Abbott was a book of lies and deceits; we have learned Turnbull is a hollow man — the Abbott government’s 2014 budget was a betrayal of truth and trust and propriety which contaminated the Coalition then and fouls them now — because of that, that perfidy, in our heart of hearts we the nation know the Coalition does not govern for our benefit and for that the Coalition is destined for a political wilderness into which they may wander for a decade.

  4. Terry2

    On present indications, the Labor Party should romp in at the next federal election, but the way the coalition are shaping their attack policies is a bit worrying.

    Michaelia Cash was demonstrating that she is not focusing on her day job when she threatened to name every young woman working in Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s office who is the subject of rumours she inadvertently let it slip that there is a dirt file on Labor and she is in the thick of compiling it and this time they are also going after staff.

    Dutton piled on with his there’s a history of problems in Bill Shorten’s personal life, Tony Burke’s personal life.

    It seems that the coalition who are bereft of policies have decided to take the attack to Labor at a personal level and this is a very sad development for politics in Australia.

    It’s not going to be pretty watching the Liberal smear machine going into action and with no effective leadership it will stay in the gutter.

  5. Roswell

    Can’t tell you how disappointed I am in the Tasmanian people.

  6. New England Cocky

    “The election was called and the bounce that they {[NLP] got from the Budget was enough for them to carry the election, albeit by 1 seat.”

    Did you overlook the effect of the $1.75 MILLION PERSONAL DONATION to the then broke Liarbral Party from none other than …. Mr Turnbull???

    As read elsewhere this morning, money talks in political advertising, Oppositions do not win elections, governments LOSE elections. Remember the continuous and despicable biased News Ltd media attack on the last ALP government? Have you noticed any difference in the manner that the present misgovernment is being cotton-woolled??

    There is a history of problems in Peter Dutton’s personal life and previous business history that the MSM have overlooked, yet he is a former Queensland policeman whose professional conduct and subsequent commercial business interests have rarely been scrutinised.

    Check out the Facebook page, “We Loathe Dutton” for more details. Too many to list here.

    But I warn; do NOT count your votes before the polls are closed.

  7. helvityni

    For me too, Pau Walterl, as I said yesterday: let’s not rock the boat…etc. We like to keep things as they have always been….Sigh….

  8. helvityni

    Sorry paul walter, the missing ‘l’ went a wrong address…

    Hope you get better soon, John Lord.

  9. Jack

    I confess I know nothing of Russel Green but he sounds like he is playing Captain Obvious with the benefit of hindsight.
    As for electioneering and personal smear attacks, both sides do it, have always done it and will always do it.
    Don’t moan or consume yourself about it, look past that stuff to what the person(or policy) is actually doing
    It’s all about actions

  10. diannaart

    John Lord

    Please take good care of yourself – I do not know how you manage writing relevant and inspiring works every day – I consider myself lucky if I manage a complete sentence.

    Your health is vital, return to AIM when fully recovered.

  11. Bert

    RoswellMarch 7, 2018 at 8:21 am

    “Can’t tell you how disappointed I am in the Tasmanian people.”

    Don’t tar us all with the same brush. Labor had a fight on two fronts, from the Libs and the Greens as they do at the federal level. Unfortunately not enough voted for what I consider the right way plus Labor are still rebuilding with a relatively new leader and from a low base and it takes time.

  12. Diane Larsen

    Hope you feel better soon Mr Lord I so look forward to your articles. My only bright point in the Tassie election is that so many older retired people have moved there that naturally vote liberal that they gave the Libs the boost that was required and if they are there then they are lost to to Libs in Vic NSW and where ever they originally resided small comfort I know but one has to look for any positive that can blunt the disappointment

  13. Freethinker

    Bert March 7, 2018 at 9:25 am
    ………………Don’t tar us all with the same brush. Labor had a fight on two fronts, from the Libs and the Greens as they do at the federal level.

    As Tasmanian I agree with you that not all of us have voted for the Liberals.
    I disagree in blaming the Greens, if the left faction in the ALP have the guts to enforce some democracy with in the party and give their members the right in making policies and naming the candidates the ALP will win at state and federal level.
    In Tasmania the people that previously voted for the Greens vote for the ALP to make sure that the Liberals were out, the ALP lost the election for their problems within and bad election campaign.
    The same is happens now at federal level.

  14. wam

    I read and read looking for the pieman. Perhaps, in your concentrating on omission you missed him?

    Pokies were a hopeful strategy that clawed a few quid back from your unmentionables but was a sure short term loser.

    The Guardian makes a point you could consider?
    This election emphasises a dilemma for Labor – there are many swing voters who will only vote for Labor if they believe they can govern alone. Yet the Greens will continue to play a major role in Tasmanian elections and the voting system ensures they will keep a toehold in Tasmania’s lower house.

    As for polls, nobody on my facebook even mentions them.

    But they share nazi style posts like soros and when asked to check before sharing:

    ‘I have far more important things in my life (real life) to focus or care about what’s on Facebook (not real life). Enjoy your day.’

    the business men’s assessment of my commo socialist left wing musing:
    ‘Every political show on the ABC and the comedic shows, all lean left. Why is that?

    “Why does the Left media protect the left?”
    Because the political commentators of the Left media are either intermingled or married to the left politicians. It’s a family thing and they protect their own.
    Greg Combet (Labor) partnered to Juanita Phillips (ABC).
    Gai Brodtmann (Labor) married to Chris Uhlmann (ABC).
    David Feeney (Labor) married to Liberty Sanger (guest commentator on ABC).
    Barrie Cassidy (ABC) former speech writer for Bob Hawke (Labor) from 1986-1991 married to Heather Ewart (ABC).
    Maxine McKew (ABC) married to Bob Hogg (former ALP national secretary).
    Virginia Trioli (ABC) married to Russell Skelton (The Age).
    Mark Kenny (Fairfax) married to Virginia Haussegger (ABC).
    Christine Wallace (ABC & Fairfax) married to Michael Costello (former Chief of Staff to Labor’s Kim Beazley).
    Annabel Crabb (former Fairfax journalist now with the ABC).
    Tony Jones (ABC) married to Sarah Ferguson (ABC). Coincidentally Jones took over the Lateline role from Maxine McKew (from ABC presenter to Labor politician).
    David Penberthy (journalist) married to Kate Ellis (Labor).
    Paul Kelly (former Fairfax journalist) formerly married to Ros Kelly (Labor).
    Kerry O’Brien (ABC) former press secretary to Gough Whitlam.
    Mark Colvin (ABC) married to Michelle McKenzie (Leichhardt deputy-mayor and Greens Councillor).
    Denis Atkins (ABC Insiders regular) married to Melanie Christensen (ABC Canberra).
    Paul Barry (ABC) married to Lisa McGregor (ABC).
    The lamentable Mike Carlton (formerly Fairfax) and Morag Ramsay (ABC).’

  15. Peter of Tooma

    Tasmania shouldn’t even be a state. It has a population of around 520,630 yet has the same number of Senators as NSW with a population over over 7.7million, making every Tasmanian vote in the Senate worth about 15 times more than us in NSW. It makes Australian democracy and one vote one value a farce. It should be divided into two or three shire councils and made part of Victoria.

  16. Zathras

    Every political show on the ABC and the comedic shows, all lean left?

    I recall a comedy show about Julia Gillard that portrayed her as some sort of suburban bogan out of her depth and included a scene of her having sex in the Prime Ministerial office under the Australian flag.

    I can imagine the mushroom cloud in the sky if they did that to any Liberal PM.

    Then there was an unbroken series of anti-Labor journalist submissions (17 I think) posted on the now-defunct Drum web site.

    Programmes like the much-complained about QandA and Insiders are forums where conservatives are free to express their opinions.

    I don’t know if Amanda Vanstone still hosts her radio show on the ABC.

    Perhaps the staff history information is more a reflection on the state of conservative politics rather than the ABC.

  17. Max Gross

    The great Aussie tragedy is that voters are essentially conservative and every federal election hinges on a handful of swinging voters.

  18. helvityni

    …and Max Gross, conservative people don’t do Climate Change, worry about what to do with plastic, don’t worry about young Australians never owning their own place ( they buy houses for their off-spring), homeless and jobless are just lazy and conservative’s don’t care about ‘dole bludgers) etc. etc….

    Labor and the Greens realise that , and to get any votes they have to please that conservative population, Australians…

  19. thebustopher

    After driving up and back yesterday to Mum & Dad’s (round trip of only 70km) I’m in a bad way with the scourge of that arthritis disease, John. But if we got rid of this government, not even the ALP could give us a cure for arthritis. Mind you, if a drug company COULD come up with effective medication for it, they’d earn a bomb, even for Big Pharma.

    On another note, I’ve recently had to investigate the huge number of drugs being progressively removed from the PBS, and making pensioners pay $30-40 for a month’s supply of particular things rather than the concessional rate of $6.40. It seems my glaucoma drops have been delisted from the PBS about a month ago. What do I do, Mr Turnbull? Do I just let myself go blind when I can’t afford this??

  20. Shevill Mathers

    So disappointing the Libs win, from day one last Xmas, the Libs were all about doom and gloom and disaster and losing jobs & front line services if people voted Labor. It was fought on a negative campaign and a few promises we knew that they cannot fulfill-a health system in crisis year after year, 5.000 to loose jobs and closure of pubs & clubs if poker machines shut down. So many folks just did not see through the Libs spin, and without a doubt, big money talks very loudly just as we saw Turnbull buy his way into the top seat. I despair of another four year of this weak as water Hodgman, with his ever scowling face every time we turn on the TV

  21. Mick Yemm

    The Federal Group have the re-elected Tasmanian premier by the balls. Labor had no hope of competing when trying to get their message out, they were simply drowned out by the liberal media blitz, funded by poker machine interests. It wasn’t so much the poker machines in Tasmania they were throwing their money at to protect, but the bigger issue that some other uppity States might get thoughts of trying to rein in the pokies, the message to let sleeping dogs lie probably got through.

  22. Freethinker

    Mick Yemm March 7, 2018 at 5:38 pm
    the message to let sleeping dogs lie probably got through.

    Well, what have to be done is “not feed the dogs” and do the same as the Liberals have done, do not mention any polices (they have 200 secret policies which now claim mandate) and after win the election then wipe off the poker machines for ever.

  23. Holly

    Great work Mungo! Not enough of this quality questioning (and humorous) writing around these days. Love the bit about Turnbull declaring that he will “go to 2019 and your question “60 losing Newspolls in a row, is there no end to his ambition?. Essential Poll out today has Labor leading them 54-46%. Usually a point ahead of Newspoll, but they both have the same trajectory. PS: Please dont say 7 years of Trump!

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