Sunday 8 April 2018
As the saying goes; “Polls are but a reflection of what people are thinking at the time.” That is entirely different from how they will vote. That we cannot know until an election is announced.
As I wrote yesterday; “Realistically though, forgetting the individual leaders for a moment, what we are looking at is a government that, come Monday, will have lost 60 Newspolls in a row and given its intention to go the distance, the figure may go to 90. Needless to say that the Coalition will have spent around four and a half years chasing the tail of their opposition.”
For me it’s difficult to fathom, given all the lying, cheating, unlawfulness, appalling leadership and anything else along those lines, just how on earth the Coalition are within a bull’s roar of Labor.
Yesterday, as reported by The Poll Bludger; “A new poll from Ipsos just about does for Malcolm Turnbull what he can apparently only dream of from Newspoll.” Hard to believe I know. But there you have it 52% Labor 48% Coalition.
I am always puzzled as to why the National Party isn’t separated out to give the figures more credibility. They must have taken a battering over the Joyce affair.
At first blush all this might seem a bit fortunate for Turnbull but The Poll Bludger sheds some light on some small but nonetheless important factors:
“We have also had Roy Morgan publish results of its face-to-face polling for the second fortnight a row, which the pollster has hitherto been reserving for its massively expensive subscriber service since the 2016 election campaign. I’m not sure if this portends a regular return to publication, or if it will be appearing on an ad hoc basis, as the release a fortnight ago seemed to suggest. Whatever it is, the result is likewise on the high side for the Coalition, with Labor holding a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is in contrast to the form of the Morgan face-to-face series of old, which was notorious for its skew to Labor.
However, as with Ipsos, it’s respondent allocation that’s making the difference – if previous election preferences were applied, Labor’s lead would be up from 51-49 to 53-47. The primary votes are Coalition 38.5%, down from 40% a fortnight ago; Labor 37.5%, up from 35%; Greens 11%, down from 12%; and One Nation on an unusually weak 3%, down from 3.5%. The Morgan release has two-party breakdowns by state and income category. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a combined sample of 1477.“
More revealing is Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns provide new grist for the BludgerTrack mill, highlighted by strong numbers for Labor in South Australia despite their unhappy state election result.
News polls BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor
The good news for Labor however is that re-distributions for the next election would appear to gift Labor with three extra seats.
Might I recommend the Bludgertrack for an in-depth analysis of all the polls. Monday Newspoll – Tuesday Essential.
A Meanwhile, the conservatives in the Liberal Party are playing a game. Making life difficult for Turnbull but with no real, at this stage, intention of challenging him.
B Next week the SA provisional redistribution will be released.
C When Abbott was in trouble, Howard did nothing to save him in a public sense. Actually left him out to dry. Yet backs Turnbull. What is that about?
D I quite like Jim Chalmers MP – SHARE THE FACTS: Under the Liberals, gross debt has blown out by more than $243 billion, crashed through half-a-trillion dollars for the first time in the nation’s history, and is growing with no peak in sight. Think the Liberals are better economic managers? Think again.
E Ciggies are $35. $11 is retail. Rest is tax.
F Robots expected to take 40 per cent of jobs. But cost of them expected to push prices up.
G Clive palmer facing criminal charges. His intelligence matches his physique. Highly inflated.
H Move on in Abbott’s seat to stack the branches with moderates. To try to force him out. Lose his pre-selection.
I Andrew bolt makes a good point. What Howard did by appearing on 7.30 only made things worse.
My thought for the day
To say that we are ambivalent about our politicians is an understatement. Now we are ashamed.
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