Shifting sands in the Galilee Basin

Wondering what’s happening with Adani?Well there have been a few developments of…

Playing Politics with tax doesn't Help Anybody !

Why do you think that the coalition always couch their legislative program…

Day to Day Politics: You bet I’m angry.

Wednesday 20 June 2017Understanding the conservative's desire to eliminate a state-owned broadcaster…

The government ignores the value of the ABC

It took the offer of a Chinese company to bring better telecommunications…

Rocking the G7: Trump Stomps His Allies

Disruption, disturbance, eruption, the words crowning the presidency of Donald J. Trump,…

Day to Day Politics: Two weeks of mayhem.

Tuesday 19 June 2018After further consideration and another clue I am prepared…

The perils of popularism

This week we originally were going to be discussing Pauline Hanson’s One…

Cutting High Functioning Autism Funding Re: NDIS

By Jane SalmonThe person who allegedly killed Euridyce Dixon has been said…

«
»
Facebook

Day to Day Politics: Nats lose leader, Cash explodes. Has no effect on Newspoll.

Tuesday 6 March 2018

How is it that when a demonstrably unpopular, lying Prime Minister, devoid of any qualities of leadership, jumps from one chaos to another, who has been so universally condemned in the media by both supporter and foe alike for his deplorable governance, wasted months of the life of the nation, is without any energy policy, loses a Deputy Prime Minister, contends weekly with hostile internal bickering like the Joyce affair, yet loses nothing in Newspoll because of it?

Now I know that opinion polls, especially so far out from an election, are but a guide to people’s thinking and not an indication of how they might vote – so what are we to make of the latest Newspoll?

“The latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last fortnight at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down one). Despite the stability on voting intention, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has been slashed from 40-33 to 37-35. The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32%, and Shorten is down one to 33%, but the only hint we get about disapproval is that Turnbull’s result is worse than Shorten’s.”

A 6 point lead without any damage from the shenanigans of the past two weeks and the aforementioned condemnation of performance seems to me implausible. And to conclude that the National Party after losing its leader, the Deputy Prime Minister, in the middle of a major scandal followed by a Cash mind implosion, suffered not a scintilla of disapproval from the electorate, borders into dodgy figures territory.

Sure a 6pt win to Labor if uniform would result in a landslide win but 4points could be knocked off the day an election is announced. I would have thought a 10 point lead would have been a fair reflection of the Government’s performance.

There are four possibilities.

1.  The electorate is totally unsure about Bill Shorten and the scare campaign is working. They see anyone as better than Labor. Shorten is out of sight and out of mind.

2.  It couldn’t get worse than this. The electorate is not the least bit interested in politics and this is as low as it gets. We know Turnbull is a hypocrite but we would still rather have him than Shorten although that is fading. Shorten hasn’t done or said enough on policy to warrant a better lead.

3. The poll is just plain wrong otherwise Labor would be much further in front.
And of course, the media is starting its buildup to Newspoll No. 30.

4. The Coalitions position is wholly attributable to a three-point drop in One Nations vote.The scare campaign on Shorten isn’t working and Turnbull’s slide in popularity is a major concern.

“Mr Abbott today said it was Mr Turnbull who set the test, “and I guess if he fails the test it will be the Prime Minister who will have to explain why the test was right for one and not right for the other”.

“It will be up to him to tell us all why the test doesn’t apply in his case,” Mr Abbott told Sydney radio 2GB.”

My thought for the day.

“In the information age, those who control the dissemination of news have more power than government”

PS. The remaining possibility is that I have no idea what I’m talking about.


32 comments

  1. kristapet

    I don’t think your PS applies …..I think it is more likely that the polls are flawed or frozen or not reflecting the real situation …. I cannot believe the public are so uninformed, or immune, to this ongoing circus performance conducted by this government. If the public can’t see through all these shenanigans in parliament, or shenanigans by ministerial conduct, or 2GB rubbish by Dutton, Abbott etc if they are, immune, unmoved etc., it is definitely, because, of the selective press reportage, and selectively, slanted MSN news
    The changes in the ABC’s reporting and ho hum interviewing, with Gutherie at the helm, the ABC has become restrictive in approach.
    The incremental, on going, changes made to the ABC as a broadcaster are noticeable, & so is their restricted reporting, and and evident restrictions on shows commenting about this LNP government. The ABC board, with their stacked Liberal vetted members are interfering with the independence of the ABC.There is too much influence of Murdoch on our press!

  2. ajogrady

    How can anyone reconcile the apathy a large percentage of the Australian public has when they are being effectively done over so systematically by the L/NP which is so blatantly against their own best interests? It makes me wonder if there is some degree of social engineering going on with immigration outcomes.

  3. babyjewels10

    Bill is far from perfect, but on evidence, and by comparison, he should be romping home. Why isn’t he? I think it says reams about the low expectations of Australian voters and the part traditional family voting plays. And maybe it points to Bill’s unpopularity?

  4. Kronomex

    Like I’ve said time and again, Turnbull is all about Turnbull keeping Turnbull as PM and leader and nothing else can get in the way. As such, he has to continue to dance on the edge of the political razor blade he has created for himself.

    Shorten is frustrating the hell out the sumbags in charge by not doing, or even saying, anything they can latch onto and make it into political circus. Probably not a good thing in the long term but at this moment it makes good political sense.

    On a side note: this just reeks of interference and political corruption, then again what else is new for the LNP –

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-government-to-lend-money-to-adani-business-associates-20180305-p4z2uy.html

  5. paul walter

    babyjewels10, the opposition leader just doesn’t come across as passionate or committed often enough. Plibersek, or Wong or Albanese do occasionally, but the fire seems to be burning low.

    I do agree that Australians seem a bit gormless, as the Tasmanian election last weekend demonstrated.

  6. Terry2

    It’s very hard to know what to believe these days. I’ve just heard a breathless Health Minister, Greg Hunt tell us that GP bulk billing consultations have risen to 85.4 per cent, the highest on record and, according to Hunt, way higher than when Labor were in office.

    So, depite a freeze on GP Medicare rebates at $37 since 2013 , over 85% of GP visits, we are told are bulk billed with no co-payment by the patient.

    I don’t know about where your are but in my neck of the woods, GP’s have all adopted co-payments due to the freeze on Medicare rebates, which, of course was the government’s objective in freezing the rebate.

    The AMA have said repeatedly that any GP who bulk bills and receives the scheduled consultation fee of $37, is losing money.

    What’s going on ?

  7. Kaye Lee

    A visit to Barnaby’s facebook page shows many comments like these…

    “Hey Barnaby Joyce all I can say mate is keep your head high an never stop fighting for Australia 👍 an fight your way back to the top! You still have my vote”

    “Good on you Barnaby! I feel the same way too! By the way, you have my support 100% and always will. Your not done and dusted just yet!! 🙂 x”

    “You still have my respect mate, somethings just never change you’re a fighter not just for you but the entire nation. One of our unsung hero’s.”

    “Still with you Barnaby here in New England. I have always believed in you. I knew the rumours back in Nov but still worked on pre polling and will be happy to do so next election. Wishing you well in the future both privately and publicly”

    “One of Australia’s true regional heroes and unwavering advocates. No matter what people think of his personal life or recent events.”

    It appears it doesn’t matter what Barnaby does. He has regional people completely fooled. I wonder if it will continue now that he is not in charge of porkbarrelling and water theft.

  8. paul walter

    Social conservatives with an axe to grind. Genuine dog in the manger stuff from the cuckold.

  9. 245179

    Voters have all but given up on “politicians”, the constant inuendos of foul play, rorts, nepatism, branch stacking, lies/deceit, etc etc. Voters feel powerless, options on voting papers are weak, again “can i trust” this candidate will actually breath new life into the system, no i can’t, it will be same ol same ol.
    Politics has become without doubt, a “career”, it supports a huge group of like minded participants, it’s an enclave of self indulging individuals, all feeling untouchable.
    Both major parties promote from within their bases, labour is heavily reliant on unions and the baggage that comes from there. The other party “blue collar” and the greed that comes from there.
    Voters have all but switched off. The focus is now watching the daily soap opera of train wrecks. Big issues, climate change etc etc do not get a serious mention, ignor these issues at your peril.

  10. Keitha Granville

    Bill would only have to suggest that Labor is looking into cutting allowances and perks for MPs and that negative gearing on more than one property is out and he would surge into the lead and crucify the LNP at the next ballot.
    I wonder why no-one ever wants to suggest this ? Not in their own interest I suspect.

  11. wam

    Dear Lord John,
    Possibilities
    1 is yes yes yes yes
    2 no yes no yes yes yes
    3 embodies bill’s hope that the poll is right
    4 reflects the power of the rabbott’s style. Nothing to say but say it and someone will listen

    the PS(sic) is tempting but in such cases I remember ‘my word’ people in hass glouses shouldn’t stow thrones

    5 the ABC may be hamstrung by trumball’s appointments but they got a bit back in the SA debate by giving slimey X a good run. It will be a miracle to get 20 years but jay could win even handicapped by his federal facsimile??

    Michael, what is the definition of bullying that allows:
    one to unpoliticise an answer your question on cameron??
    or
    supports online bullying without exposing a criminal offence??

  12. Pierre Wilkinson

    I think that Bill and Labor are just biding their time whilst this inept government slides slowly into the mire of their own making, despite the MSM continuing to praise all they do. Have to agree that the ABC has changed drastically now it is full of Lieberal sycophants.

  13. Ross

    And the Abbott spake, saying, “Thou shalt count to thirty, no more, no less. Thirty shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be thirty. Thirty one shalt thou not count, neither count thou twenty nine, excepting that thou then proceed to thirty. Thirty two is right out”. Once the number thirty being the thirtieth number be reached then thou will be in shitters ditch.

  14. Warwick

    Keitha, to wedge the LNP today, Labor could say something along the lines:
    ‘In power we’ll consider remove the ability to claim investment property expenses against unrelated PAYE income tax.’ Such a change to the tax environment will effect speculators, not positively geared investors.

    The Grattan Institute report ‘Housing affordability: re-imagining the Australian dream’ (04/03/18) notes “It took neglectful governments two decades to create the current housing affordability mess. They preferred the easy choices that merely appear to address the problem.”

    Successive govts have arranged the tax system so that housing is a shelter from taxes rather than a shelter in which to raise a family. Only Labor or LNP can correct the situation.

  15. Max Gross

    John, I think you’ll find your answer in the facts that Australians are essentially conservative, are easily distracted, have the memory of goldfish in a bowl, and every Federal election has turned on a handful of swinging voters

  16. diannaart

    @ Kaye Lee

    Thinking on visiting BJ’s facebook page, for the very first time ever. I have a bridge spanning Sydney Harbour, a very big rock outside Alice Springs and even a second hand coal mine for sale somewhere in Victoria, I reckon my chances of making a sale would be excellent.

    @ PW

    Doubt BJ’s fan-base understand dog in the manger metaphor – however they do believe in Joseph Goebbels.

  17. Michael

    Audit Newspoll – do not refer to it until it is done – avoid perpetuating possible misinformation.

  18. Wun Farlung

    If I remember correctly the last Federal election- polls said LNP comfortable winners. Brexit Comfortable for NO
    Polls aren’t always right

  19. helvityni

    Max Gross, ‘I think you’ll find your answer in the facts that Australians are essentially conservative…’

    I think therein lies the answer to some of my questions; let’s not rock the boat, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it, what will the neighbours think, Oz is the bloody best country in the world… translate that to ‘no improvements needed’….

  20. ace Jones

    Shorten is unelectable, its not his fault either , just has zero charisma.
    Its the personality the people want!
    did you see the show on Bob Hawke? the Australian public could not get enough of that man in his day he was genuinely loved by majority of population.
    Bill shorten cannot ever become such a charismatic personality, much to my and every sane persons despair
    Its hardly about policies though they do help , its more like who has the most genial personality for the average man in the street who generally does not spend time evaluating policies/politics.

  21. margcal

    Just how “fair and balanced” is the coverage Shorten and Labor get in the pro-LNP dominated MSM … from displaying personality to covering policies?
    How would the ‘great’ politicians of the past fare in the personality stakes that are rampant but irrelevant to good governance these days?

  22. diannaart

    ace jones

    Charisma does not make for a great or even an effective leader.

    Agree with margcal, so little has been displayed of Shorten, Labor AND the Green’s policies – thanks to “fair and balanced”, no wonder Newspolls are not reflecting as well as could be expected for progressives.

  23. Harry

    Whilst I also wonder why the Coalition is not in landslide loss territory, I am more interested in one thing: the continuation of the current polls until their defeat.

    Though Labor (esp Chris Bowen) shows evidence of continued belief in the neoliberal view of the world: “Labor believes in strong fiscal policy and return to surplus and we are prepared to make the tough decisions to do it” Labor would most likely (try) to tax the rich most heavily.

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=38819#more-38819

  24. helvityni

    Speaking of charisma, there are, and have been, many successful leaders without it: Merkel, Helen Clarke, Halonen (Finland), Howard, Rutte( Holland), just to mention a few…I’m sure there are many more…

  25. @RosemaryJ36

    Do the homeless get included in the polls?

  26. David1

    diannaart, helvityni you debunk the absurd nonsense from ace jones nicely. Meanwhile so called ‘warm’ can’t resist its usual negative comment re Bill Shorten.

  27. helvityni

    Knonomex, I like Chris Lilley, Shaun Micallef, Barry Humphries, but never watch Adam Sandler…I don’t find him one bit funny…

  28. Leanne

    John Lord.
    I was wondering the same thing, but my guess is that the 4th estate/newspaper journalists ( So called ) tv presenters, news presenters have become little bugs that crawl out of one’s rear orifice once they become deceased. but then maybe Im mistaken also???
    I find it irritable, frustrating, un-newsworthy to read rubbish from MSM which is towing the line and favoring the liberals on a threat to weaken
    laws to catch them for UNAUTHORISED or so called non permissable news stories.

    The MSM seem to be too scared to reveal the truth because of the laws currently before parliament, or what is left of it whilst the liberals are in power at least.

    Perhaps some Brave, courageous, upstanding, reliable, noteworthy, newshound might be able toreach far far down to their balls once again to strive for all humanity to bring real trustworthy news and figures on newspolls and opinion polls and show us the real side of them.
    Maybe just maybe, the government don’t want the people to know the real figures and how bad they are, because they are afraid that those figures will jump out at people and start influencing them to vote for anyone but them???

  29. Rhonda

    Same here, helvityni.

  30. Glenn Barry

    Given the Murdoch media’s aversion to reporting anything approaching an objective account of the truth, is it too much of a stretch to posit fudging the numbers on the polls.

    So I’m for #3 with the reason for the incorrect poll being deliberate manipulation of the numbers

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Return to home page
Scroll Up
%d bloggers like this: