Tuesday 6 March 2018
How is it that when a demonstrably unpopular, lying Prime Minister, devoid of any qualities of leadership, jumps from one chaos to another, who has been so universally condemned in the media by both supporter and foe alike for his deplorable governance, wasted months of the life of the nation, is without any energy policy, loses a Deputy Prime Minister, contends weekly with hostile internal bickering like the Joyce affair, yet loses nothing in Newspoll because of it?
Now I know that opinion polls, especially so far out from an election, are but a guide to people’s thinking and not an indication of how they might vote – so what are we to make of the latest Newspoll?
“The latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last fortnight at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down one). Despite the stability on voting intention, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has been slashed from 40-33 to 37-35. The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32%, and Shorten is down one to 33%, but the only hint we get about disapproval is that Turnbull’s result is worse than Shorten’s.”
A 6 point lead without any damage from the shenanigans of the past two weeks and the aforementioned condemnation of performance seems to me implausible. And to conclude that the National Party after losing its leader, the Deputy Prime Minister, in the middle of a major scandal followed by a Cash mind implosion, suffered not a scintilla of disapproval from the electorate, borders into dodgy figures territory.
Sure a 6pt win to Labor if uniform would result in a landslide win but 4points could be knocked off the day an election is announced. I would have thought a 10 point lead would have been a fair reflection of the Government’s performance.
There are four possibilities.
1. The electorate is totally unsure about Bill Shorten and the scare campaign is working. They see anyone as better than Labor. Shorten is out of sight and out of mind.
2. It couldn’t get worse than this. The electorate is not the least bit interested in politics and this is as low as it gets. We know Turnbull is a hypocrite but we would still rather have him than Shorten although that is fading. Shorten hasn’t done or said enough on policy to warrant a better lead.
3. The poll is just plain wrong otherwise Labor would be much further in front.
And of course, the media is starting its buildup to Newspoll No. 30.
4. The Coalitions position is wholly attributable to a three-point drop in One Nations vote.The scare campaign on Shorten isn’t working and Turnbull’s slide in popularity is a major concern.
“Mr Abbott today said it was Mr Turnbull who set the test, “and I guess if he fails the test it will be the Prime Minister who will have to explain why the test was right for one and not right for the other”.
“It will be up to him to tell us all why the test doesn’t apply in his case,” Mr Abbott told Sydney radio 2GB.”
My thought for the day.
“In the information age, those who control the dissemination of news have more power than government”
PS. The remaining possibility is that I have no idea what I’m talking about.