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Day to Day Politics ‘Electorally What chance Labor’

Sunday January 17 2016

 Foreword.

This election I will be voting for the 41st time. I can’t imagine how many promises parties have made in that time. I do know that if they had all been kept then I should be living in utopia. I am not.

1 What chance does Labor have of victory at the next election? I am not talking policy, strategy but simply votes required.

If you go by the polls you would say Labor has very little chance of winning. But then Polls only ever give us a snapshot of how people are thinking at the time. They can change very quickly.

There are some important lessons to be learnt from the last election.

None more so than the political apathy that now grips the electorate. There is something fundamentally wrong when, despite a huge recruitment drive by the Australian Electoral Commission at the last election 1.22 million citizens failed to enrol to vote and 400,000, or one-third of the non-registrants, were aged 18 to 24.

Additionally, 760,000 House of Representatives ballots were informal – about 6 per cent, – up more than 0.3 per cent from the 2010 election.

3 Million Didn’t bother to cast a vote. A kick in the guts for our democracy.

It would seem that a large portion of eligible voters no longer have any interest, or confidence in the institution of our parliament, or politics in general for that matter.

The big challenge for both parties should be to engage more people in the process. I use the word should because I fear the right of politics has little interest in doing so.

But the wipe-out of the Labor Party at the last election as predicted by the pollsters did not occur and it highlighted the implausibility of polling small samples in individual seats.

Now if we take a dispassionate look at the last election results we find that Labor did not suffer the resounding defeat that many commentators have suggested. The landslide argument doesn’t stand up in light of the figures. The figures simply do not support the assumption.

Fifteen of the Coalition’s new seats are held on very thin margins. Eleven seats have margins of less than 4000 voters. In essence the election was a lot tighter than was first proposed. In effect this means that it would only take about 30,000 people to change their vote to change the government. This of course can be misleading because ups and downs vary from election to election.

Note that under proposed redistribution by the AEC announced Friday 15 January Labor gained three notional seats in Barton, Dobell and Patterson and would lose one. The percentages I quote below represent the state of the seats after the election.

Anthony Green the ABCs guru of all statistics on elections and anything else says that for Labor to win it would need a uniform swing of 4.3%

‘In summary, the round of redistributions reduces the Coalition from 90 to a notional 88 seats, while Labor increases from 55 to a notional 57 seats. Assuming a uniform swing, the Coalition can retain majority government despite losing 14 seats on a swing of 3.0%, while Labor need to gain 21 seats on a uniform swing of 4.3% for majority government.’

This is how the seats stand.

Barton (NSW) (**) LIB 0.3%  Petrie (QLD) (**) LNP 0.5%  Eden-Monaro (NSW) (**) LIB 0.6% Dobell (NSW) (**) LIB 0.7%  Capricornia (QLD) (**) LNP 0.8%  Reid (NSW) (**) LIB 0.9%  Lyons (TAS) (**) LIB 1.2%  Solomon (NT) CLP 1.4%  Banks (NSW) (**) LIB 1.8%  Hindmarsh (SA) (**)  LIB 1.9%  Page (NSW) (**)  NAT 2.5%  Braddon (TAS) (**) LIB 2.6%  Gilmore (NSW) LIB 2.6%  Lindsay (NSW) (**) LIB 3.0%  Robertson (NSW) (**) LIB 3.0% > Deakin (VIC) (**) LIB 3.2%  Bonner (QLD) LNP 3.7%  Corangamite (VIC) (**) LIB 3.9%  Bass (TAS) (**) LIB 4.0%  La Trobe (VIC) (**) LIB 4.0%  Brisbane (QLD) LNP 4.3%  Forde (QLD) LNP 4.4%  Macquarie (NSW) LIB 4.5%  Hasluck (WA) LIB 4.9%  Dunkley (VIC) LIB 5.6%  Leichhardt (QLD) LNP 5.7%  Herbert (QLD) LNP 6.2%  Flynn (QLD) LNP 6.5%  Swan (WA) LIB 6.5%  Dickson (QLD) LNP 6.7% Longman (QLD) LNP 6.9%  Boothby (SA) LIB 7.1%  Casey (VIC) LIB 7.2%  Cowan (WA) LIB 7.5%  Dawson (QLD) LNP 7.6%  Bennelong (NSW) LIB 7.8%  Pearce (WA) LIB 8.1%  Aston (VIC) LIB 8.2%  Ryan (QLD) LNP 8.5%  Bowman (QLD) LNP 8.9% Hinkler (QLD) LNP 9.0%  Fisher (QLD) LNP 9.8%  Paterson (NSW) LIB 9.8%  Higgins (VIC) LIB 9.9% Sturt (SA) LIB 10.1%

2 Yet another Jamie in trouble. This time the Labor figure Jamie Clements has quit as the general secretary ( NSW) after facing mounting pressure over harassment allegations, while insisting he had “done nothing wrong”. It’s all alleged of course and we shouldn’t pre judge but what is it with men that they cannot keep their hand off women.

An observation

‘Most problems that society faces arise from the fact that men have never really grown up’

3 The rebellious right, or Abbott’s attack squad of the Liberal Party seem intent on antagonising Turnbull in every way they can. Pure of heart and leading Christian right-wing advocate for war Kevin Andrews criticises Defence Minister Marise Payne advocating that our troops should be head butting ISIS on the ground. Eric Abetz, aggrieved former Minister comes out in support.

Whilst backbenchers are entitled to air a view Andrews crossed the line when, as the former minister he disclosed information he had received in the job. That is totality inappropriate.

Why is that when the shelf-life of politician’s passes we simply don’t digest what they say?

4 For those of you interested in the future of our NBN and its progress here is an excellent piece by Mark Gregory.

It has been an inauspicious beginning to 2016 for NBN Co and the year only promises to go from bad to worse as the rest of the world moves ahead with NG-PON2 Fibre to the Premises (FTTP) rollouts and Australians slowly realise that the spin from Turnbull about how his NBN was going to be fast, affordable and here sooner is nothing more than a bad joke.’

And it really is very strange that the ABC has made no mention of Turnbull’s stuff up.

5 Further to my post on ‘’free speech’’ yesterday. There is no guarantee of free speech in the Australian constitution. It is only implied.

My thought for the day.

‘Life is an experience of random often unidentifiable patterns and indiscriminate consequences that don’t always have order nor require explanation’.

 

18 comments

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  1. Jaquix

    I like your positive analysis about Labor’s election chances. Queensland did it in January quite spectacularly, and are proving popular, and governing well, introducing some good reforms, bit by bit, even the Murdoch dominated press have been uncharacteristically easy on them. (Comparatively). The Libs only got in last time because of the blatant lies Abbott kept repeating. If Labor keeps plugging away and puts their team approach to work and making their policies known, and Bill Shorten gets a voice/speech coach, Labor could get over the line.

  2. Terry2

    The National party is also going through a painful transition that doesn’t suit everybody and could further diminish their federal chances. The attempt to draft Ian Macfarlane was, as I see it, designed to give the Nationals some substance at leadership level, something they badly need. The fact that the LNP in Queensland rejected that strategy demonstrates some of the factionalism at play within the Nationals.

    We know that Truss is hoping to retire and now that just leaves Barnaby as the only candidate available to take over. But he is seen by many in the Nats. as being too close to the mining lobby and seems to have this odd relationship with Gina Rinehart which doesn’t sit well.

    Barnaby is not a safe pair of hands and I’m not sure that Turnbull could work with him and I’m not sure that Australians would accept Joyce as their deputy PM.

  3. Kyran

    “And it really is very strange that the ABC has made no mention of Turnbull’s stuff up.”
    The ABC’s technology and games editor, Nick Ross, has recently resigned from the ABC, alleging he was gagged from writing about the NBN after his initial articles in 2012, which were critical of Turnbull’s proposals from opposition. At that time, Turnbull was critical of Ross and claimed the ABC was biased, but never refuted the content of Ross’s articles.
    The ‘Delimiter’ site has several articles detailing the lies and obfuscation of the NBN management and their government ‘allies’.
    I wonder if Turnbull still has his shares in ‘French Telecom’. The only articles I could find date back to 2012, when he was advocating FTTN technology for us but investing in FTTP technology for himself.
    Many articles have now been written, here and elsewhere, about Turnbull’s duplicity. How his stated personal belief’s are contrary to his belief’s (and policies) as PM. How this fraud is tolerated escapes me. How this fraud is lauded as ‘popular’ and eminently electable baffles me. I think I’ll re-read Hans Christian Andersen’s “The Emperor’s New Clothes”.
    Thank you, Mr Lord. Take care

  4. Mercurial

    Terry2, if Australians fail to ‘accept Joyce as their Deputy PM’, just what can they do about it?

  5. Rob

    NBN, around here it stands for No Bloody Network. We won’t be getting it and they won’t give us satellite either because we have (dicky) 3G coverage.

  6. Terry2

    Mercurial

    On the subject of the ABC, I have been quite surprised that the expected lull in reporting over the Christmas period has turned into a complete exodus of all radio and television current affairs personnel and with their absence the government have been able to get away with all sorts of indiscretions without any in depth scrutiny or questioning.

    With a new CEO taking over at the ABC she will need to ensure that the business keeps functioning and that all experienced journalists are not on holiday at the same time and that important programmes are not mothballed ; that’s how a business runs.

    On the subject of choice and Joyce it is for Labor to campaign and inform the electorate that Joyce is not an acceptable candidate for Deputy Prime Minister and hope that the National rump will not vote for him and hopefully Tony Windsor will stand against him.

  7. Ricardo29

    Re the small numbers required to get a change of Government, you would think there would be more than enough pensioners and Uni students whose incomes are negatively affected by decisions of this government that, if mobilised, could swing the result. There you go Bill. Target them/us.

  8. Roswell

    Rob, I’d vote Labor just for better internet alone. Everything else would be a bonus. Abbott and Turnbull (with the help of Murdoch) should be damned for what they did to destroy technology in this country. I’m one of the many who subscribe to the view that Abbott vowed to rip Rudd’s NBN up just to help Murdoch. Read somewhere recently where Rudd made the same claim.

  9. Roswell

    Mobius, did you see the link I put on my last comment on my Trump post? An Australian Muslim MP was detained and questioned at LA international airport.

  10. John Lord

    Ricardo 29. I was stating that rather simply. It’s much more complex than that. The uniform swing is the thing to watch.

  11. my say

    The Liberal government were voted in on lies and scare tactics, under an Abbott led government ,with the help of the MSM and murdoch,In his place we now have the smiling know nothing do nothing Turnbull,who is even more dangerous than Abbott,He has taken Australia to a place of no return ,and if the voters of Australia vote a Liberal government into power for another three years,The Australia that we all grew up in will be gone forever,
    Turnbull was voted in as PM by the liberal Party,I prey to God that he isn’t voted in by the people of Australia

  12. Wally

    The NBN fiasco is testament to how far behind the times the LNP are, should be the focus of Labors election campaign.

  13. win jeavons

    How can a Christian advocate for war ? Jesus explicitly said : “blessed are the PEACEMAKERS ” .This is unambiguous. he also said, as have other religious teachers , that we should treat others as we would wish to be treated. So, is Kevin Andrews a Christian? Perhaps he inclines toward Mars .

  14. Sen Nearly Ile

    god was asked if she could make a pig fly but she said that was neither advisable nor possible then she was asked if she could make shorten sound plausible she thought for a minute then said give me another look at that pig.
    Labor has to have a team effort on the morning shows exposing the economic weaknesses and the copper man turned climate denier republic and gay=marriage avoider.
    why is torpid tanya not on the box pushing for a plebiscite at the election not at turnball’s time and cost why not put a modicum of pressure on the man tipped to be the first pm at mardi gras???
    the labor boys are a dead(kim carr still education??) loss, haven’t the labor women thought of exerting pressure???
    how weak is the defence ministry, or cash and especially robb

  15. Trish Corry

    There is only a .7% lead in Capricornia. We will take Capricornia back. Everyone else can get their seats back or in blue ribbon seats reduce the margin immensely. Just get out there and support your candidates and work hard at grass roots campaigning. It works. There are 23 seats with a margin of less than 5%. We can do it!

  16. Sen Nearly Ile

    Yes hard work works for the individual. Remember Beazley hard worker lovely man hard worker?
    Organised hard work is labor tradition and was successful. When labor organises the grass roots and arms us with the power to defeat the slogan bogans we will be successful. Pollies work hard? Are seen to work hard?

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