Day to Day Politics: A different perspective.
Tuesday 8 May 2018
The Roy Morgan Daily Summary is a daily email summary of finance and politics mainly from journalists of The Australian and the Financial Review. Of interest to me is the Morgan research into unemployment, religion and other matters. What follows are some typical examples. The first one is about unemployment which always gives a different interpretation from the ABS. You can read it all at roymorgan.com./findings/7579-australian-unemployment-estimates-april-2018.
Unemployment in Australia
1 “A Roy Morgan survey shows that 11,962,000 Australians were employed in April 2018 – an increase of 46,000 over the last year. The increase was driven by part-time employment, which rose 154,000 to a record 4,454,000; full-time employment was down 108,000 to 7,508,000. The figures also show that 1,196,000 million Australians were unemployed (9.1% of the workforce) in April, a decrease of 88,000 (down 0.7%) on a year ago. In addition, 1,349,000 Australians (10.2% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a rise of 259,000 in a year (up 1.9%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.1% for April is substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for March of 5.5%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the continuing strength in part-time employment is causing under-employment levels to spike from already high levels, and it is imperative that the May 2018 Federal Budget seriously considers the continuing high levels of unemployment and under-employment” [full text]
2 It also has a piece saying that the Government will use the Budget to formally adopt a tax-to-GDP ratio of 23.9 percent. I think most economists would describe this as silly economic management.
3 Rumoured on Monday was that the tax cut would amount to $5 a week. Would you like me to repeat that?
4 Another article is headed “Spending spree to boost economy” which again packs away the debt and deficit accusation they have been shouting at Labor for several years. Talk about spending like a drunken sailor.
“The May 2018 Budget will allocate $A24.5bn to major infrastructure projects, including federal contributions to rail projects in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. Treasurer Scott Morrison stresses that the Government’s focus is on providing financing for state-based infrastructure projects in which it will become an equity partner, rather than simply providing taxpayer funds. The Budget will also allocate funding for the proposed expansion of the Snowy Hydro scheme.”
5 Another Roy Morgan Summary suggests that “the number of jobs in Australia rose by 403,000 in 2017, with the 3.4 percent surge providing the federal government with an increase in income tax revenue, while also reducing its welfare costs. Treasurer Scott Morrison is reluctant to predict whether the 2017 employment growth figures will be repeated in 2018, while employment grew by just 4,900 in April. The Reserve Bank does not expect the unemployment rate to fall to 5.25 percent until the middle of 2019, a much longer time-frame than it had forecast only a few months ago.”
This is in contradiction to (1) which said that strength in part-time employment is causing under-employment levels to spike from already high levels, and it is imperative that the May 2018 Federal Budget seriously considers the continuing high levels of unemployment and under-employment”
6 In an article in the Financial Review by Matthew Stevens and David Marin-Guzman, they say that the CFMMEU has amassed an $11 million dollar war chest to fight the Coalition whenever the election is held.
The Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining & Energy Union has imposed a levy on its members to try to help Labor win the next federal election. Funds from the levy will also be used to help with ACTU campaigns, as well as the CFMMEU’s own campaigns. The levy will potentially raise as much as $A11 million over the next few months. The CFMMEU wants the Australian Building & Construction Commission and the Registered Organisations Commission to be abolished.
Together with Getup, other unions and Labor they will have a sizeable war chest.
7 There are more articles in the newsletter. Whilst I subscribe to the newsletter purely for the purpose of seeing what the other side is saying from The Australian’s point of view without a firewall, it’s generally not my cup of tea.
My thought for the day
“The young are so busy discovering themselves, the world they live in and their place in it that they are apt to neglect the fact that it is they who are the custodians of tomorrow” Persuade them to vote.
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Return to home pageSo much for the tax “cuts”, all the government is doing is raising the low income tax off set, so no money in people’s pocket’s.
Thank you for the easy to read and understand clarification of the eco-babble emanating from Canberra on a daily basis through the MSM.
Your #1 clearly demonstrates that this misgovernment has little, if any, idea of managing anything, let alone the Australian economy.
Sadly worse, the LNP must be perfect (in their own eyes) and believing their own publicity, despite this independent evidence to the contrary.
costello summed it up ‘it took us 10 years last time….’ now is the time to show how lousy howard and costello were.
Two areas:
raise tax free by $5000
medicare on ato gross income
a great kennedy-like thought
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/20-000-lashes-for-murder-liberal-party-branch-to-debate-proposal-for-corporal-punishment-20180507-p4zdup.html
Not only is he a raving nutter but he’s also a coward –
“Mr Popowski, who runs a business manufacturing parts for the mining industry, said he could not talk to the media because of internal party rules. “I’ll get a hiding,” he said. “My lips are sealed.””
They should ask the Mad Monk and Little Kevin what they think of him.
Dear Mr Lord.
With the greatest of respect and deference, I feel compelled to draw your attention to another ‘poll’ that has proven to be far more accurate on an historical basis.
It is ironic that this alleged government and their corporate backers, including the media, are so enamoured of ‘free market’ performance and assessment (And, of course, self-regulation) that they can be so well adjudged by the free market, removed from political circumspection.
It is also ironic that it is one of the most free of the free marketeers, untroubled by any suggestion of regulation, let alone self-regulation, that is in a position to not only assess the viability of government in the corporate sphere, but to render the political landscape worthy of capitalist exploitation (if only for the sake of amusement, heaven forbid anyone would seek to profit from our political impotent’s impotence) and renders its assessment on a ‘live’ basis, susceptible to the most sensitive adjustments of valuation.
For the assessment of the free market on who will win the next election;
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics
Whilst traditional punters, such as Newspoll, predict a ‘neck and neck’ finish, the market is saying Labor by a couple of lengths. As for the fixation as to who will be the ‘winning jockey’, it would appear Malcolm is the favourite. The other offerings appear to be carrying too much weight (or ‘baggage’, as it were).
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics/Liberal-Leader-at-Federal-Election-3057866.html
Yes, once we survive tonight’s offerings of ‘the government’ (for and on behalf of their corporate sponsors) we will understand it is not Christmas, and the closest we will get to the pre Christmas analogy is that we have all been very, very bad, ‘cause all we are getting is a lump of coal.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/07/budget-eve-is-a-magical-twilight-celebration-of-anticipation
“My thought for the day
“The young are so busy discovering themselves, the world they live in and their place in it that they are apt to neglect the fact that it is they who are the custodians of tomorrow” Persuade them to vote.”
It is only fair to point out that the young are early adopters of technology and have much fun with betting. By all means, persuade them to vote. But it is also appropriate to caution them, in their transition from gamboling to gambling, to gamble responsibly. Oops, vote responsibly.
Thank you Mr Lord. Take care
Could be worse, we could be getting a spud, potato in Christmas in May stocking. Dutton seems very confident.
Two scenarios, Budget bounces and August Election called, strike while your hot???. Budget bombs and leadership spill shortly after. And we get a Spud at the helm.
ESSENTIAL POLL.
2PP: ALP 53%, LNP 47%
Also, AMP director Holly Kramer is stepping down. She is also a director at Woolworths, Australia Post and 2XU and serves on the Boards of GO Foundation and Southern Phones. She received top honours at the Australia Marketing Institute (AMI) Awards 2016.
Sacrificial lamb or incompetent serial board member?
Wow, it’s a magical “tax cut” that you don’t get. Then you get your massive $200.00 bonus off your tax at end of the financial year. What an effing rort. The little person cops it in the neck once again.
“IF YOU EARN UP TO $37,000
Those earning up to $37,000 a year will have their tax bill reduced by a maximum of $200, which amounts to $3.85 a week.
However, the tax cut will not be seen in your weekly pay packet. It will be delivered in a lump sum via a tax offset in your annual tax return from July 1.”
Rest of the piece –
http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/federal-budget/treasurer-unveils-income-tax-cuts-in-budget/news-story/19c0d499e8519f4078e8a9ebb3b985a0
The Lying is second Nature Party (don’t forget the “is second” is silent) strikes again. Roll on election.
RE:
We’ll all be rich. After all – it’s a massive fifty-five cents a day. Almost enough for a half an ALDI meat pie … ?
Now that’s a vote winner. There will be dancing in the streets. And watch the polls for the evidence.
No doubt, I will be voting for the LIBS at the coming election – they are so understanding.