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Day to Day Politics: Who will win?

Saturday July 2 2016

At this time last year Newspoll showed Labor clearly ahead of the Coalition 53% to 47%, nearly a direct reversal of the 46.5% to 53.5% result at the September 2013 federal election.

Of course at the time Tony Abbott was Prime Minister and things were going downhill rapidly.

On the eve of this election the mainstream media has come out strongly in support of the conservatives, as have the bookies. The reason the newspapers back Turnbull is simply that they are more qualified to manage the economy. How they can say that when the government has doubled the debt is beyond me.

A few days ago Newspoll released its last poll showing the LNP 51/49. The next day Essential had the reverse followed by Fairfax Ipos 50/50 and Galaxy 51/49 to the Coalition.

With so many polls saying the same thing any fair-minded person would assume it’s going to be close. But then we know in recent times the polls have a miserable record. The English general election, Brexit, Queensland and Victoria all produced shock results.

In Australia our very democracy is under threat from a government that is extremist in its views. A self-serving government that has a hypocrite as a leader. A government that places capitalism before environmentalism.

In 2014 it proved beyond doubt that it wanted the poor to contribute more to the wealth of the rich and privileged. Its budget of that year was universally condemned as the most unfair ever.

Turnbull’s predecessor, of course, did more to damage the institutions of our democracy than any other. People are angry at anything and everything.

The people have experienced three years of wasted governance, and some have already expressed their attitude by walking away from the system altogether.

If Turnbull does win it will be with a reduced majority and, therefore, a reduced authority. Turnbull won’t last 6 months before Abbott starts to chip away. It’s also possible that even the joint sitting might not be enough to pass the ABCC legislation. How embarrassing would that be? In case you had forgotten, the ABCC is the reason we are having this election. Others are fed up with all the sanitised political gratuitous rhetoric that does nothing more than insult our intelligence. It’s been going on for far too long and people are up for a protest. We in Australia are often slow to see these things but when we do . . . look out.

What we are seeing worldwide is people ‘protesting’. Protesting at their treatment. More often than not they are ignorant of the facts and are just protesting against anything. They just want their voice to be heard.

For years now we have been living with Labor’s self-indulgent leadership wrangles and the Coalition’s far right ‘born to rule’ mentality.

Every time you read a newspaper you see how corrupt Australian society has become.

I believe that scandal after political scandal has at last woken us from our apathy. We are angry and we want to take it out on some one. How dare they treat us like this? Screw the polls. We don’t give a shit about the rights and wrongs, we just want to be treated with some respect.

People are disgusted with Turnbull’s caving into the ratbags on the right of his party. He has turned out to be as bigger liar as was Abbott. As hard as that might be.

For me Turnbull’s hypocritical leadership on gay marriage, the NBN and the environment must play on the minds of the voters as must the appalling performance of the government.

Ongoing banking scandals, political donations and ministerial deceit, and growing inequality surely will not escape the public’s attention. So too his repetitive cave-ins on tax reform. The fact that they are split on so many issues must also come into play.

Bill Shorten out campaigned Malcolm Turnbull, presented by far the better policies and leads a united team.

The voters are primed to take to someone with weapons of mass destruction. It might as well be the government. Don’t be surprised.

My thought for the day.

“We exercise our involvement in our democracy every three years by voting. After that the vast majority takes very little interest. Why is it so?”.

PS: Of course I might be completely wrong. The public might be happy with the unconstructiveness and in-fighting of their governance.


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  1. Ross Cornwill

    I hope so John. I have enjoyed your articles the past few weeks.

    After 2 weeks of pre-poll off to Lennox Head to do battle against the yellow peril again. Yellow peril equals to the Nationals. A rare bunch but easy to pick by their new Williams attire.

  2. 1petermcc

    It’s been encouraging to read your work, John. To know others are also outraged with how Voters are being treated.

    I hope Voters are paying attention and they may well be. So many have voted early that it suggests they feel motivated and I don’t see that coming from wanting business as usual.

  3. michael lacey

    Will not be long now! One thing looking ahead there is an economic storm coming; so whoever takes the helm will actually have to do something and looking for a surplus will not be a solution or for that matter austerity!

  4. Pilot

    Really waiting for the Campbell Newman effect. Would be bloody brilliant to hear all the lib commentators this evening giving all their excuses why MALfunction lost this election. Will they resort to their fallback comment? “It’s all Labor’s fault!!”, or will they just ridicule Australian voters?
    My water tells me Labor will win by small margin, and have a reasonably friendly Senate.

    We don’t need FASCISTS running this country. The Lying Nasty Party have shat in their own nest. Good riddance to bad rubbish!!

  5. helvityni

    I’m hoping Bill Shorten will do what Annastacia Palaszczuk did in Queensland. Not many believed that Anna would win, Bob Ellis was about the only one, he was confident against all odds.

    Lets pray and hope that the early voting was a protest vote; people were not happy with the Coalition, and acted…or am I clutching straws here… 🙂

  6. Deanna Jones

    Thank you, John, you give me a little hope now as I head off to vote. Standing in line with the scum voting for Scott Morrison, I’ll hold my head up high.

  7. Kaye Lee

    Interesting message from Sally McManus…

    “So News Ltd upped the price of an advertisement in their paper by $30K when they saw the box with “put the Liberals last”. No joke.

    They tried to price us out of getting the ad in their paper in Sydney. How outrageous is that?”

  8. Dan Rowden

    As a QUEENSLANDER!!!! I too am hoping – probably against hope – for the Newman factor to surface. There were certainly no real indications of it prior to the Qld election. Sadly, if something akin to that doesn’t occur I don’t like our chances, but then I’ve been long haunted by a persistent darkness of mood so that might be affecting my judgement.

    Mind you, I was a tad bemused by one of the local Labor candidates invoking the spirit of Newman in her advertising – all to make a rather dodgy political point. Not sure if it was a State-wide thing. Also not sure of the wisdom of that tactic.

    Short of that Newman-style result, we likely won’t have an outcome tonight. Mind you, I can’t seem to establish any “facts” regarding when pre-polls are actually counted. Opinions seem to differ. I guess the only question left now is which TV coverage to watch. That choice could prove to be tougher than the freakin’ Senate ballot.

  9. paul walter

    It’s pretty accurate also to what half the public has missed in the way of real issues and the lazy cling of that half to faux Murdoch generated fantasies concerning deficits and refugees.

    After nearly sixty years, a huge slab of the country still haven’t woken up to Murdoch and I resent being dragged down by morons.

  10. Wayne Turner

    If the shocking COALition get back in.It won’t just be a win for them.It will be a win for the MSM,especially Rupert Murdoch.Also,a win for all the BRIBERS of the COALition.Also,the ultimate winner will be stupidity,and the loser this country.We will then truly have turned into a mediaocracy.

    Hopefully Labor will win.

  11. helvityni

    I never ever believed that any country would elect someone like Abbott as its leader. Well it happened here, yet we knew his dismal political history.

    That’s why I’m scared; if Abbott was possible, why not Turnbull, or have we learnt something from the Abbott experiment…?

  12. Carol Taylor

    John, that absolutely infuriated me. We have had Fairfax running article after article including from their own Economics Editor stating 1. that the company tax cut is meaningless as a method of jobs creation 2. that the profits will mostly flow overseas 3. will do nothing to stimulate the economy. They also backed Shorten’s plan to reign in some of the worst of the negative gearing/tax minimisation, in fact they stated that although Shorten’s plan was a start, that it didn’t go far enough – then on the eve of the election – God give me strength – they say Back Turnbull on the basis of ‘sound economic management’.

    Is it similar to what I believe one person said? Malcolm is rich, therefore he knows all about the economy. *stunned in disbelief*.

    The other plea concerned: Awwww, it’s only a 1 term government, give the poor bloke a chance. In other words, we’ve given them 3 years to produce the worst, do-nothing government in history after a period of being the worst do-nothing Opposition in history. And you want us to give them 3 more years of the same?

  13. Freethinker

    For the last 55 years I have been follow political affairs with interest in Argentina, Uruguay and here.
    IMO Australia is going trough what was happen in Uruguay during the beginning 1960- 1970 decade, when the majority of the electorate were voting the 2 big parties just because family tradition, lack of political knowledge. afraid of change, attitude of of the politicians are the same, or simple lack of political education.
    Reading comments in blogs, social media, and looking at the news it appears to me that we have a large proportion in our electorate that their voting influences are by the above factors.
    For a positive change it will take a big change in living standards for people to start “educating” themselves in political issues, start getting involved in interest groups of meetings to looking or demanding solutions.
    IMO the present protest trend that we are seeing now it is just the beginning of the change needed and perhaps will take another two elections more to start seeing the results manifested by increasing the votes for the small parties, progressive ALP members leaving the party to move to The Greens or perhaps forming a new micro parties.
    I am pessimistic, I think that the Coalition will return to government with a smaller majority and a more hostile senate.
    Perhaps it is this what the electorate needed, it will be painful for us and all of those that have not voted for the Coalition but if at the end it will help to wipe off the extreme right from the Australian political landscape the result will be positive.

  14. Steven James

    I went to vote early and found my name was not on the electoral roll. Strange i thought because i recently voted in a local and state election. I did an online check and found that i am on the electoral roll. I have been an online critic of this corrupt government and cop plenty of ridicule from many trolls. A few years ago one particular troll started abusing me. He knew many private things about me including my medical records. Which only my doctors and centrelink were made aware of. Could it be that my name was taken off the electoral roll by this corrupt government. I think so !

  15. jantonius

    Can you take a hard copy of the online record of your registration on the roll back to the polling place? They should then check it.

  16. richard grant

    Great article thanks John.

  17. helvityni

    Our young people know all about celebrities; who’s skinny, who’s putting on weight…
    So when they finally vote, do they pick a person who according to them LOOKS more prime ministerial?

    And do the oldies vote according to their family voting patterns.

    Do the age groups in in the middle prefer minor parties, who knows?

  18. Kaye Lee

    Steven, you can do a declaration vote.

    There are two types of declaration votes issued at a polling place.
    An absent vote will be issued to you if you are not on the certified list because your enrolled address is outside the division.

    A provisional vote will be issued to you if you are claiming to be enrolled for an address within the division but if:

    your name cannot be found on the certified list,
    your name on the certified list is already marked as having voted,
    your name is on the certified list but not your address (silent elector), or
    your identity cannot be confirmed after additional questions have been asked
    you will be asked to read the provisional voting statement before completing a declaration vote envelope.

  19. Slapsy

    My fingers are crossed for a Shorten victory. It does not matter how big the margin is,because they have already proven they are capable of managing a minority government.

    Put the LIARS last .

  20. Matters Not

    Pre-polls are counted tonight. Treated as though you voted today.

  21. helvityni

    I must be onto something, as Andrew Elder is pondering about this very same issue; Laborites looked down on Howard, a dreary little suburban lawyer. Now the Coalition voters view Bill Shorten in the same fashion, not someone to be taken seriously…

    Time for all of us to grow up and judge our politicians by their policies.

  22. Dan Rowden

    Matters Not,

    Pre-polls are counted tonight. Treated as though you voted today.

    Awesome. I’d seen some obviously outdated info at the AEC website that suggested they weren’t counted till the Monday after, or the week after etc. So, a result may well be clear tonight. I’m gunna need more than a six pack.

    Oh, yes, a cup-cake stall at the Brighton State School booth. Hooray! Good luck Swanny, for what it’s worth.

  23. Matters Not

    Swan will be fine.

    His LNP opponent the last few times, Rod McGarvie, is now the number 1 Senate candidate for Family First. A ‘conversion’ of sorts. Came out of the closet.

    Re the ‘counting’. My info comes from a returning officer. He could be wrong, but that’s what will happen in his neck of the woods.

  24. Kaye Lee


    According to the AEC, “Only ordinary votes from polling places are counted on election night. That is, the ordinary votes that are cast at a polling place where the voter’s name is marked off the electoral roll at the time of voting.”

    With record numbers of people voting early, we may have to wait a while to know how close electorates end up.

  25. Matters Not

    KL, I am just passing on info. Could it be the case that a pre-poll ‘vote’ fits the descriptor you cite “Only ordinary votes from polling places are counted on election night. That is, the ordinary votes that are cast at a polling place where the voter’s name is marked off the electoral roll at the time of voting.” ?

    My name was crossed off the roll (at the time of voting) in a polling place within the electorate. Further, on ABC radio this morning the returning officer’s view of the world was confirmed by the journo.

    But who knows for sure. It may be the case that it varies between electorates because in the long run, all we are talking about is the ‘timing’ of the counting – which is down to the returning officer.

  26. Kaye Lee

    Fair enough MN. I hope what they are saying is correct and the AEC info could be interpreted that way. I, for one, will be glad when 6pm comes. I just got ANOTHER robocall. The joys of living in a marginal seat.

  27. Matters Not

    KL. I rang the AEC. (They are open today.) The first person, I spoke to said that the ‘pre-poll’ had already been counted. (Bullshit). I requested more ‘expertise’. The next person (higher up the chain) said she didn’t know but put me through to the next level who told me that they are counted at the same time as the other ‘boxes’. She pointed out that declaration votes are not counted at that time, which is to be expected.

    I am now fairly confident that most (but perhaps not all) pre-polls are counted at (relatively) the same time as today’s votes

  28. kerri

    Oh John! I so hope you are right! I remember being gob smacked in 2013 at how so many people voted for that morally bereft ape and now the sheeple have been wooed by the smiling liar!
    My fingers are crossed as is my brow!
    I certainly hope the average voter sees through the hoopla and makes the better choice.
    I certainly believe if it is a hung parliament that Shorten will have a better chance of negotiating as it is not only in his blood but has been a major part of his career.
    Looking out my window right now there are storm clouds brewing. I hope it is not a sign?

  29. kerri

    Regarding when votes are counted and the general SNAFU of the AEC
    I am not sure if this helps but? Dad is in a nursing home.
    Mum received her application to postal vote from Kevin Andrews. Wouldn’t fill it in doesn’t trust KA.
    Asked me to change dad’s address to the nursing home which I did on May 17th.
    Frantic calls from nursing home this week.
    No postal vote forms for 3 residents. (Dad is bedridden so postal is the only option)
    Applied for postal vote online Monday. Received email to say it would arrive July2nd.
    Emailed again to state address change was May17th and postal form would arrive too late.
    I am not sure if this applies broadly but it may mean a swathe of uncounted votes tonight.

  30. Michael Taylor

    MN, most government departments employ temps to ‘man’ the phones in times like this. The chances of finding someone who knows all the answers are indeed slim.

  31. Möbius Ecko

    An ABC News24 piece this morning did a skit on their studio being a full polling organisation and it ended by stating the pre-poll votes are indeed locked away and only counted after the polling day votes have been tallied. Basically when the last of the votes for a booth have been counted the box with the pre-poll votes is dumped onto the table to be counted, but not before the last poll day vote has been tallied.

    This makes sense why sometimes in very close elections the outcome of pre-poll votes may not be known for some time down the track.

    Hope this helps and the ABC has it correct.

  32. jim wonder why is this election about he said this and he said that. MT says Bill is lying aka mediscare the MSM are saying TB win 100% they’re making out like it’s about a flip of the coin, instead of the presenting actual policies well very little mention of anything else?
    Hey ,there’s never been a better time to Vote the Liberals OUT!.

  33. Kaye Lee

    I just voted and saw the same phenomenon that someone mentioned previously – all the young people who were there voting with their parents were told by said parents to vote Liberal, all the young people there without parents seemed to be voting Labor or Greens.

  34. jim

    reminder to share this on FB Gooooogle etc

  35. silkworm

    What is the mood in the electorate of Warringah? Could Abbott lose his seat? If so, one might expect the same mood to be spread across the entire country. One has to wonder why there has been so little media scrutiny of the contest in this seat.

  36. diannaart

    @Carol Taylor

    “Malcolm is rich, therefore he knows all about the economy”

    “Awwww, it’s only a 1 term government, give the poor bloke a chance”

    To which I have also heard (more than once)

    “I’m voting for Malcolm because he is good looking”

    Am hoping at the very least;

    Barnaby Joyce loses his seat

    Cathy McGowan retains hers

    The Greens gain more seats than they have already – no apologies Carol – we need more progressive parties and independents.

    …and, if Malcolm does scrape over the line, he has a senate of nightmare diversity.

    Am hoping at the most;

    Bill Shorten makes it well over the line in the HoR – but has a very diverse senate – we really need to take action on those people detained indefinitely for simply trying to escape untenable situations and real action on climate change!

  37. Matters Not


    Yep! Allows for postal votes from distant places, (including overseas locations) to arrive in the electorate.

    We know that more than 30% (maybe as high as 40%) will be pre-poll votes. We also know that some seats will have more than 80% counted by the tonight’s final ‘call of the board’. Logically, this suggests pre-polled votes will be included in this day’s count.

  38. helvityni

    “I’m voting for Malcolm because he is good looking”

    diannaart, I too heard it this morning when having my Latte, three young women talking about their voting plans at the next table.

    Gillard was not up the scratch because of the size of her bottom and other trivia, never mind she achieved more than Abbott and Turnbull put to together. Sigh.

  39. Kaye Lee

    “She has showcased a bare home and an empty kitchen as badges of honour and commitment to her career. She has never had to make room for the frustrating demands and magnificent responsibilities of caring for little babies, picking up sick children from school, raising teenagers. Not to mention the needs of a husband or partner.” Janet Albrechtsen. The Australian. July 2010

    “TWO years after splitting from second wife Ann Peacock, Victorian Liberal Party powerbroker Michael Kroger looks to be off the market after stepping out at the weekend with prominent conservative newspaper columnist Janet Albrechtsen on his arm.” Daily Telegraph August 2011.

    “The Abbott government has appointed conservative commentator Janet Albrechtsen and former deputy Liberal Party leader Neil Brown to the panel overseeing appointments to the boards of the ABC and SBS.” SMH July 2014

  40. Michael Taylor

    While standing in the mile-long line waiting to vote I couldn’t help but notice that very people (about one in fifty) had ‘How to vote and who for’ pamphlets. The multitude that didn’t either knew exactly what they were doing or didn’t care. I suspect the latter. The donkey-votes or informals will be through the roof.

  41. silkworm

    Do not underestimate the moral corruption of the average Aussie.

  42. Kaye Lee

    The Senate paper in NSW was ridiculous. You could only look at a bit of it at a time. I didn’t even find the Labor Party on my first rolling scan through and searching for the groups I wanted to vote for was really hard. In this day and age we should be able to come up with a better system.

  43. Michael Taylor

    The young lass handing me my voting papers got her facts wrong. She said I had to select at least 12 above the line on the Senate paper and at least 12 below. I told her it was six above the line.

    I wonder how long she’d been making that mistake.

  44. Michael Taylor

    The Vic senate paper was ridiculous too. It was at least 15 metres wide.

  45. Matters Not

    15 Metres is possibly stretching it a little. Perhaps there’s a missing decimal point?

    Re the Senate: NSW 152 candidates, Qld 122, VIC 116, WA 79, SA 64 and TAS 58.

    And why not run. Success translates to a ‘sinecure’. It’s why Hanson is in the field. She hates those sucking on the public teat. But makes an exception in her own case. Funny that.

  46. Bacchus

    OK – this from someone who usually counts the votes at polling centres (but isn’t today because they have their kids for the school holidays).

    “Pre poll votes done at pre poll centres are counted from 6pm tonight. Pre poll votes handed in at normal polling booths are counted early next week as they go back to the Returning Officer for marking off on the roll.”

    I assume they mean declaration or absentee votes for “Pre poll votes handed in at normal polling booths…” as the names have to be marked off the roll.

  47. Deanna Jones

    Helvi, I think you under-estimate young people. I know lots of them who know what they are doing when it comes to politics and social issues. I was heartened to notice great swathes of younger voters at my polling booth, today. Far more than normal. The Labor candidate in my division is only 20 years old and grew up in the neighbourhood.

  48. Freethinker

    Deanna, i hope that you are right but I did not see many university students active on the streets.

  49. Deanna Jones

    Yes, declaration, absentee and silent voter votes are counted ‘when they get around to it’ according to the official over-seeing my silent vote today. Btw I recommend being a silent voter. You get a special trestle table in a corner out of the way where you can sit down, spread that senate paper out and really take your time.

  50. Deanna Jones

    Really, Freethinker? I see heaps of young people at the refugee rallies. I also teach university students and am consistently proud of just how engaged and progressive they are (although it’s in the social sciences so you would expect that), plus my own two 20 somethings are very conscientious about politics.

  51. Freethinker

    Deanna, I am glad that you saw some activity, perhaps I am used to my time (overseas) where if the government were considering charging for studies thousands of students will go in strike and occupying the Universities. I was active part on those activities.

  52. Deanna Jones

    Freethinker, ah I get where you are coming from. Wouldn’t be awesome to go back to that?

  53. Freethinker

    Deanna just to give you an idea, even in high school I remember to be active in issues that could affect education.
    When Ernesto Che Guevara visited Montevideo, all the high school and faculties were closed because students when to see Che.
    That shows how were were interested in politics not only domestic but world wide as well.
    I miss that here.

  54. Steven James

    Yep i managed to vote, thanks

  55. Matters Not

    I have three large screen TVs in my household. I watch them all. The coverage on ABC is effing pathetic. Sales and Crabb are absolutely effing hopeless. Antony Green is sidelined.

    The best coverage is on Channel 7. (Never ever thought I would say that.)

    Jones proved he can actually add and subtract. Crabb and Sales prove they can ‘giggle’.

    Get out of the way and let Green make his points. FFS.

  56. Möbius Ecko

    Channel 9 “Labor scare, Labor scare, Labor scare…”

    With right wingers and the MSM, when is it never Labor’s fault for Liberal’s blatant failures?

  57. Freethinker

    Going by the analyzes in ABC the ALP does not have enough votes for form government and the Coalition have 75 seats
    As is it the Coalition will not have the numbers in a joint seating to pass some laws.
    IMHO if the coalition form minority or small majority government will not last 2 years in power

  58. Möbius Ecko

    Interesting. Some key Liberals who heavily backed Turnbull have lost their seats. Those who backed Abbott have retained theirs.

    Methinks Turnbull is a goner no matter what.

    Wong correct in saying the people making excuses and lowering the bar at the moment are the Liberals. I’ll add the MSM to that.

  59. paul walter

    The ABC is utterly corrupted by the new ABC a boss, an ex Murdoch hack. All panelists just about were tory idiots.

  60. Matters Not

    Very disappointed (but not surprised) that Joyce won.

    As Marx ‘suggested’: ‘rural idiocy’ knows no bounds.

    The ALP will not form government. And while I am disappointed, I am not surprised.

    ‘Rationality’ is now down to the Senate.

  61. Matters Not

    key Liberals who heavily backed Turnbull have lost their seats. Those who backed Abbott have retained theirs.

    Not surprised at all. Those who backed Turnbull did so on the belief that he would rescue them. He didn’t.

    Promised much (in their minds) and delivered SFA.

    Regardless of outcome, Turnbull is a political corpse swinging in the breeze. (And he knows it.) But perhaps there’s an arse available for … Or perhaps the ‘arse’ in question already been sold and is no longer a ‘bargaining chip’?

    On the other hand we have the ‘virginal’ Abbott who offered his but ..

    Interesting times ahead.

  62. Freethinker

    I can see Scott Morrison or Bishop looking for numbers very soon.
    The problem is that if both parties cannot form government, Turnbull have to ask the Governor to call for a second election.

  63. Michael Taylor

    The highlight of the evening – I hear – has been Bolt’s meltdown . . . on live TV. I didn’t see it (I can’t watch anything that has Bolt in it) but it was apparently monumental. I did see a screenshot of his latest blog post – it’s one hell of a major rant against Turnbull. He’s angry. Tragically angry.

  64. Freethinker

    This is Michael,
    Malcolm Turnbull – you are finished

    You assassinated a Liberal Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, who’d won an election by a huge margin.

    You promised to do even better than him.

    You then treated the Liberal base like dirt, smashing it with a huge super tax, refusing to speak to conservative journalists, repeatedly humiliating Abbott.

    You referred to the colonial settlement of Australia as an “invasion” and even held an end-of-Ramadan meal with known Muslim bigots.

    You called an early double dissolution election on the excuse of needing new laws to tackle rogue unions with a building and construction commission, but with the true aim of getting rid of crossbench oppositionists in the Senate.

    You went to the election with basically only one policy to sell – a pathetic 10-year promise to cut company tax.

    And now look. Almost everything turned to ruin.

  65. Matters Not

    Let’s be thankful, that with the (likely) re-election of the Turnbull government, there will be ‘stability’.

    Yesterday’s ‘promise’ will be tomorrow’s …

  66. Kaye Lee

    Andrew Bolt….

    “You have been a disaster. You betrayed Tony Abbott and then led the party to humiliation, stripped of both values and honour.


    Nothing like stability

  67. Kaye Lee

    Scott Morrison said they will win a majority government and read through a whole heap of seats – Sales says so you expect 80 seats….Morrison said oh no, maybe 77 or 78 and you can be sure he is being optimistic. Take out a Speaker. Could well be a hung parliament with a Senate with 2 Lambies, 2 Hansons and a Hinch and god knows what else. This is going to be ugly.

  68. kizhmet

    I watched about ten minutes of channel 7- most of which was Bill Shorten’s speech. I couldn’t bear listening to Scott Morrison. The SBS was even worse. Thank god for online results … and TheAIMN!

    The utter hypocrisy LNP are spruiking regarding ALP’s campaign on Medicare is breathtaking.

  69. Matters Not

    Could well be a hung parliament with a Senate with 2 Lambies, 2 Hansons and a Hinch and god knows what else.

    Indeed! Isn’t Malcolm a brilliant political strategist?

    Re Hanson and Lambie. Demonstrates the point made by Whitlam many years ago re Tasmania and the promise to journalists re ‘double headed fellatio’. Clearly he didn’t understand that he could’ve included Queensland in that generalisation. Shakes head!

    But when it comes to… I won’t go there.

    Is anyone keeping an eye on Turnbull and “The Gap”? And if not, then why not?

  70. paul walter

    Could be the narrowest of tory wins and that could be fatal for Australia.

    What do people make of this from the Guardian?

    My take is yet again this sterile battle between the Greens and Labor keeps the conservatives in power.

    In these two electorates, Labor should have lost, given the despicable nature of the two sitting members.

    But Labor was jipped also and were deeply unlucky as to three or four other seats kept by or won by the Coalition.

  71. kizhmet

    Official AEC site has ALP at 70 and Coalition at 68 …

  72. paul walter

    Expect the worst, hope for the best.

    What has happened with the ABC, Murdoch and this near-fascist government ought to be apparent to and have even the village mentally impaired person alarmed, let alone all the Einsteins.

    People go blithely along, nothing bad has happened previously and it doesn’t occur to them that things can also change for the worse.

  73. Möbius Ecko

    Wow, even in a speech in the wake of his losses Turnbull blatantly bullshits, and of course it’s all Labor’s fault for running a scare campaign on Medicare, not withstanding that he was going to privatise it until halfway through the election campaign.

    Turnbull is saying he will win a majority government, and even if he does it will be the slimmest majority with a couple of ministers having malfeasances hanging over them and him losing key supporters within the party. Yet he still went on about stable government and the chaos of a Labor one.

  74. cornlegend

    Now everyone can sit back and reflect
    In this day and age for counting not to resume till Tuesday is a joke.
    Time the AEC paid penalty rates for sundays counted on mondays and got the bloody job done
    Oh and with almost 2 weeks till postal voting closes that old “We live in interesting times” comes into play

  75. Möbius Ecko

    Good explanation by AEC on ABC News24 right now cornlegend. Makes sense.

  76. Kaye Lee

    An extraordinary barney broke out between Sydney shock jock Alan Jones, a supporter of Tony Abbott, and Queensland LNP Senator James McGrath, one of Mr Turnbull’s principal numbers men in the September leadership coup.

    “There were a lot of bed-wetters in the Liberal Party and you seem to be the captain of the bed-wetters,” Jones said.
    “The reality is that in 2010 Abbott won seven seats from Labor and in 2013 he won 18. In two elections he won 25 seats.
    “I would have thought that that on the basis of winning elections was pretty good form. So now your Queanbeyan mob, Peter Hendy and Co, whom you organised and coordinated and led while Tony Abbott was in Adelaide, have now got to confront this.”

    “The Liberal Party out there will be very, very distressed about what’s happened [on Saturday night].”

    Senator McGrath returned fire, accusing Jones of actively campaigning for Labor at the last state election and working against the interests of the Coalition.

    “Alan, I actually don’t care what you think, because you’re not a friend of conservatives, you’re not a friend of the Liberal National Party,” he said, pointing a finger at Jones.

    “You’re the king of the bed-wetters actually. You are actually a grub.”

  77. Freethinker

    I have never saw Malcolm so upset and aggressive as he was last night. A typical reaction from a spoiled narcissist politician when things are not working as he wish and his position can be in danger.
    Some people blame the Greens for the low performance of the ALP in some seats, IMO they are wrong, if the ALP is not in power today it is because the system fail.
    Have a look the amount of votes of the Nationals and their win seats in the lower house and compare with the total votes of the Greens with only one seat.
    That is wrong!

  78. helvityni

    Yes Freethinker, true to form Mal throws a tantrum and shouts, it’s all Labor’s fault.
    According to him Labor’s campaign was negative, whilst his speech was the most un-prime-ministerial : most negative.

    Tasmania did well, Nicolic is gone. I also hoped for better results for the Greens.

  79. Freethinker

    helvityni, here in Tasmania health care is a big issue, we have a large old population and spread on the east coast where services neglected.
    In all doctors surgeries, x ray clinics and pathologist clinics you can see posters by the AMA and other professional organizations making the patients aware of the coalition intentions regarding bulk billing.
    Also here in Tasmania the AMA have a very powerful advertising.
    That IMO was more effective that the ALP Medicare campaign

  80. diannaart

    Also here in Tasmania the AMA have a very powerful advertising.
    That IMO was more effective that the ALP Medicare campaign

    Indeed, Freethinker

    I noticed GP ads in Victoria as well. Intelligent sober presentation by calmly spoken GP warning how past actions have damaged Medicare & bulk billing and no reason to expect any change by LNP if re-elected.

    LNP blaming Labor, yet again, for another failure continues to be a very bad look – LNP need a major rethink.

    However, can’t see that happening given the personality types that continue to hold sway. While I am relieved LNP has not won a clear majority, they have not lost any of their most obnoxious members. Except for Sophie Mirabella – YAY! Ding dong the REAL witch is dead…

  81. Athena

    MN, all the seats I’ve looked at on the AEC website haven’t counted any pre-polling votes yet.

    I was handing out how-to-vote cards yesterday for GetUp! The polling booth had 2 deliveries yesterday of extra senate ballot papers and ran out shortly before polls closed last night. People who left their voting until the last minute missed their opportunity to vote for the senate.

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