Wednesday 10 May 2017
1 Whilst you are all, this morning, foraging through details of the budget looking for any benefit you might have gained, or indeed lost, it is important not to lose sight of the other things happening around us.
For example, yesterday’s Guardian/Essential Poll reveals Labor charging further ahead of the Coalition: 54/46 TPP. This has now opened the gap to 8 percentage points.
The polling took place after the Government revealed its plans for higher education.
56% disapproved of the proposal to reduce university funding by $2.8 billion, and only 28% approved. Those most likely to disapprove were Greens voters (80% disapprove), ALP voters (69%) and those with a university degree (65%). Those most likely to approve were Liberal/National voters (45% approve) those aged 65+ (40%) and males (34%).
60% disapproved of the proposal to increase student fees, and only 30% approved. Those most likely to disapprove were Greens voters (84% disapprove), ALP voters (73%) and those aged 18-24 (71%). Those most likely to approve were Liberal/National voters (51% approve) and those aged 65+ (46%).
47% approved of the proposal to require students to repay their loan earlier, and 44% disapproved. Those most likely to approve were those aged 65+ (68% approve), Liberal/National voters (67%) and other party/independent voters (57%). Those most likely to disapprove were Greens voters (68% disapprove) and those aged 18-24 (59%).
It could well be that the rot has really and truly set in and no matter what a party does nothing will move the vote.
Good article by Laurie Oakes on Saturday saying the catholic school funding issue was mishandled. Could cancel any boost in the polls related to the budget.
On the question How important is it that the Government returns the budget to surplus?
71% thought that returning the budget to surplus was important. Those most likely to think this were Liberal/National voters (87% important), those earning over $104,000 (78%) and those working full-time (76%).
19% thought that returning the budget to surplus was not important. Those most likely to think this were Greens voters (43% not important) and ALP voters (28%).
Herein lies the problem for the Coalition. There is some justification for good and bad debt but their base has always been opposed to debt per se.
2 So did the budget find the $6 billion necessary to fund the NDIS and what suffered for it to do?
3 Philip Coorey wrote in the AFR that the Australian Government’s May 2017 Budget is tipped to forecast a surplus in 2020-21. However, ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service has doubts regarding the Government’s ability to meet this target, as well as the economic growth forecasts in the Budget. Marie Diron of Moody’s says the firm will consider all aspects of the Government’s Budget consolidation policy over the next five years. She adds that the Australian economy’s trend growth is unlikely to be any higher than 2.75 per cent.
And the answer is?
4 Not a bad idea. Demerit system for welfare recipients. Lose 20 points for every missed interview. Start out with 100 points a year. So can only afford to miss 5 interviews a year?
5 The Labor advert featured no Australians from ethnic background. Accidental or deliberate? Either way not acceptable. Shorten has to take responsibility.
Albanese was certainly giving him a warning.
6 Do we need a publicly funded national newspaper? “No” would be my answer.
7 Did today’s budget focus on spending? We are leaving a substantial debt to future generations. What has the government done about it? More tomorrow.
8 Gone very quiet. Aboriginal recognition referendum. And I might add the parliamentary enquiry into expenses.
9 Shorten said foreign aid is the best form of national security.
10 A pre-budget prediction. The Medicare levy will be increased.
Now I can get onto the budget.
My thought for the day.
“Are you really doing what is important. What you believe in, or have you just adjusted to what you are doing”.
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