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Day to Day Politics: Leading a beaten man into a week of hell

Saturday 2 December 2017

1 I find myself bracing for a very big week next week. Maybe it will be the one that breaks Malcolm Turnbull. He will carry into the week the thoughts of the Deputy Premier of NSW. That being that he should resign by Christmas. Now I’m struggling to remember his name. Yes that’s it, John Barilaro, not that it matters much for they carry the message. “The Prime Minister should resign before Christmas.”

The week of course will start with a prelude to the second last week of Parliament for the year. And then there’s the New England by-election. Barnaby Joyce won New England seat at the 2016 election with a margin of 8.5% from Independent Tony Windsor. His two-party preferred margin versus Labor was a much safer 16.4%.

Joyce entered this campaign with a number of controversies on his shoulders. The movement, against its will, of a government department into his electorate at a cost of around $25 million. Then there was the pub episode where he laughed about his capacity to steal water. And now we have him staring down his leader over the need for a Royal Commission into the big four Australian banks.

Barnaby hasn’t appeared much personally which is probably due to family problems. It certainly wouldn’t help being asked about the well-being of ones marriage on the campaign trail.

An observation.’

“When the flame of love has become but an ember and the candle no longer burns. Is it to late to strike another match?”

I’m tipping that his lead will be reduced by a swing of 8%. A huge swing but Labor couldn’t possibly win the seat. David Ewings will again stand for Labor in what can only be described as a Melbourne Cup field of 17.

2 Then on Monday another Newspoll is due for publication with the Prime Minister fast approaching that magical figure of 30.

Everyone – or at least everyone interested in these things – will be wondering just how Turnbull will respond to what was his measure of leadership when Tony Abbott lost 30 Newspolls in a row. It’s hard to say if the polls have bottomed out or indeed if the events of last week will take both the PM and his party any lower.

My bet, for what it’s worth, is that the Banks backflip, and the criticism from NSW Deputy Leader John Barilaro will shave another percentage point from the TPP giving Labor an 11% two party preferred lead. Preferred PM will be about even. Especially now that superannuation has been included in the banking.

It looks as though all the planets are aligning to bring Turnbull down. Barilaro used Turnbull hater Alan Jones’s show to berate the PM and argue that the PM should step aside.

“Turnbull is the problem, the prime minister is the problem”.

“You’ve got a party in disarray, a Coalition government in disarray and a community not unified and that is all at the feet of the prime minister of Australia,” he said.

One can only conclude that the Nationals in collusion with Barnaby Joyce have launched a full frontal attack on the Prime Minister. They are no longer in Coalition.

3 On top of all this it seems the conservatives will not let the Marriage Equality Bill pass without an amendment on freedom of religion that will see Labor vote against it so that it will be on the record. The people will see the attempt to wedge Labor for what it is and yet again mark down the Coalition for its intransigence.

4 We can expect the MYEFO statement any day and then we will have a better picture of how the economy is running.

5 On top of that The Prime Minister promised to release a report, prior to Christmas, on MP’s expenses.

6 And then after our January hibernation we can start on the Energy Guarantee legislation, yet again. Personally, I find the most objectionable feature of conservative attitude is its propensity to reject well-substantiated new knowledge, science in other words, because it dislikes some of the consequences which follow from it. The conservative attitude to renewable energy is just as sick as many of their other policies.

My thought for the day

”The rise of the right has brought with it a new political language. One that has not yet been classified because it defies any normal understanding of what the word truth means.”


26 comments

  1. lawrencewinder

    It’s interesting to note the tenor of radio commentary about this ruling rabble… one who DID call them a rabble, others who laugh at their predicament and more who just glibly dismiss any of their fatuous attempt to make head-way.
    It all reminds me of that scene from “Zorba” where the old courtesan is dying and the village crones begin filching the home’s contents, till a frenzy ensues and the place is stripped bare…
    I wonder if the IPA is on the menu, too?

    http://shanewombat.blogspot.com.au/2017/11/yes-err-no-well-perhaps-theyre-framed.html

  2. Harquebus

    “The conservative attitude to renewable energy is just as sick as many of their other policies.”
    Labor’s policy on renewable energy has its foundation in ignorance. EROEI is never factored.
    We need to decide how are we going to support our society with neither fossil fuels nor renewable energy.

    John Lord
    You produce such good work and then spoil it with your support for renewable energy junk science. Renewable energy will always only ever provide diminishing energy returns.

  3. Bert

    There’s always one, ALWAYS!!!……….(sigh)

  4. Keith

    Alan Finkel is quite frustrated with the dog’s breakfast that is termed energy policy.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/finkels-frustration-everyone-else-strategy-not-australia-53929/

    Quote:

    “The center-piece of his land-mark Finkel Review, the clean energy target, has been left in the gutter by weak-kneed politicians, and his attempts to bring perspective to the issue of storage has been branded as “eco-evangelism” by the same forces that make policy makers tremble in their bed at night.

    Little surprise, then, that Finkel chose to focus his last energy speech of the year on the “Myths and Legends of the Australian electricity market”, delivered to the ANU on Wednesday afternoon.”

  5. Jack Straw

    Sydney Boys will do and say anything to please The Godfather; Big Al.

  6. Florence nee Fedup

    The PM could save some skin this week. He won’t, as he has to always play games, be first, be best. He will overact & overegg as always. No foresight or judgement has this man.

    As he did with Banking RC. Turned a positive into a negative by making it an attack on unions & industry super. Which employers part own by the way.

  7. Florence nee Fedup

    Yesterdays Estimate Hearing fiasco with Cash won’t do their ratings any good.

  8. Frank Smith

    My interest will be in how many ineligible MPs will be forced to come out of the woodwork on Dec 5th (which should have been Dec 1st) and how Turnbull handles that.

  9. Terry2

    The other elephant lumbering into the Prime Minister’s office is the dual citizenship end-game now that all of our parliamentarians have presumably submitted evidence that they are not dual citizens.

    So far the citizenship fiasco has knocked out seven senators and two members of the house of representatives. It seems almost statistically inevitable that with 150 members in the house of representatives and only 76 senators that there will be a swag of new disclosures of dual citizenship particularly from the house of representatives.

    Clearly this section 44 problem is not one that is confined to the senate yet, so far the numbers are out of kilter so new disclosures from the House of Representatives, will inevitably come to light next week.

    The question is, will the Prime Minister bite the bullet and call a general election for early 2018 or will he allow all these bi-elections to proceed into the new year ?

    Or, will there be a cover up ??

  10. wam

    At last Lord, congratulations. Good time to rethink the difference between honesty and truth..

    Good one bert, I’m glad the harq didn’t win Ipswich.

    perhaps Australia Day should be Dec 5th? Great, Pauline has shown the way.

  11. Kronomex

    Jellyfish have spines of steel compared to Malcolm of the Trembles.

  12. Rob

    Andrew Robb, he also of IPA fame n fortune. Snagged a job in the pro china lobby. One day after leaving his Office of Profit under the Crown. So little was made of it. the liberals coined the phrase.”nothing to see here move ALONG” But, onwards to more pressing issues, how many failed newspolls and is turnbull lining up his post parliamentary career in banking?? All this fuss about a banking RC.

  13. Michael Taylor

    Jellyfish have spines of steel compared to Malcolm …

    Love it. 😀

  14. Pilot

    I spent the last 10 days in hospital with no internet or real news. Had to rely on the government’s lacky reports. So glad I now have access to real news, and it ain’t good to this pox government.
    With this mob in such disarray, how can tweedledumbass Cosgrove continue to allow this bunch of village idiots to continue their destructive path? With so-called liberals Australiawide condemning them daily, these clowns just stumble from one fiasco to another with no thought of Australia’s future.
    Australians should be on the streets of every capital city protesting against the corruption, their lies and the lack of direction.

    The sharks are circling the spineless, clueless PM, so who with replace him? Hunt? Ciobo? Bishop? The mind boggles. But whomever it is, they will have to deal with the same misfits as Trumble has had to deal with. They are most assuredly the worst government Australia has ever had.

  15. Michael Taylor

    The conservative attitude to renewable energy is just as sick as many of their other policies.

    Just about right, John, but I’d replace the word “many” with “all”.

    I’m yet to see just one thing they’ve done right.

  16. Graeme Henchel

    Turnbull is a horrible, spineless, narcisstic dilletente and snake oil man and he is leading the coalition to certain defeat. BUT, I do not think the Liberals will ditch him.

    He is still their least worst option compared to alternatives like, Dutton, Morrison and Bishop i.e. he will lose but lose less badly than the others. This was the same rationale that Labor used to re-install the flawed but “popular” Rudd.

    Just as Turnbull is only interested in saving his own job the party really are now in saving the furniture mode.

    The coalition is now at a point of hopelessness where any prospective challenger will be handed a poison chalice. Only Abbott is deluded enough to want it.

    Events in coming weeks will may well see us going into an early election and changing leaders will be a further nail in the coalition coffin.

    If Turnbull is knifed we will see a dummy spit of epic proportions. He would almost certainly resign and cause a loseable election or even more malevolently he may simply resign from the liberal party and sit on the cross bench as an independent causing the government to lose on the floor of the house. He has no loyalty or conviction to any cause than himself so why not bring it all down.

  17. Freethinker

    Michael Taylor December 2, 2017 at 10:55 am
    “I’m yet to see just one thing they’ve done right.”

    They are doing a good job with their self inflicted destruction.
    We should encourage them to rise the bar in this objective.

  18. Michael Taylor

    That’s the only consolation, Freethinker, that they’ll consign themselves to the political dustbin for a generation.

    Well, it’s good in theory. 😊

  19. John Lord

    Wait until next week if he has 7 doubtful citizens.

  20. wam

    Michael, how about sept 2013 and august 2016? Did they get those right?

    How is billy going for the next election, especially with the di boys on his case?

    Lord try this story one of my nats friends sent for truth vs honesty

    ttp://i0.wp.com/www.bitsandpieces.us/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/My-Favorite-Animal.jpg

  21. Vixstar

    NEW England cup with 17 contenders, a favourite sporting a 40,000 outfit and the 16 outsiders all in with a chance. Please if there are any gods watching over the mere mortals of Tamworth can you zap the one with the beetroot face pissed in the nearest pub, RSL and Australia will reward you with gifts of goats into the extinct volcanoes of our beloved land. Vote for Labor save Australia!

  22. Keith

    Graeme

    You are right, I believe, in saying Turnbull will not be ditched.
    It would provide an advertising bonanza for the ALP, Abbott’s comments about leadership would provide a gold seam.
    The LNP are now in a catch 22 situation in relation to Turnbull.

  23. Kronomex

    It’s going to be interesting to see what spin Malcolm of the Trembles, Morris of the Scum, Cormann of the Cigar, Palaszczuk of the Crawl, et al will put out if the Adani deal falls through which is starting to look increasingly likely. If 25 plus banks can smell a dodgy deal then maybe, just maybe (I’m not holding my breath however) the idiots in government here will give it up as a lost cause.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/dec/02/adani-group-china-construction-bank-wont-grant-loan-pr-firm-says

  24. Glenn Barry

    Looking at the situation logically I think it is safe to conclude that the only person that does not want Malcolm to resign is Malcolm

  25. Freethinker

    The New England electorate has spoken, the like Joyce,they like the Coalition and like to have more of the same.
    The only hope is that Tony Windsor look for a seat in the senate to represent the minority in that electorate.

  26. Kronomex

    This from a “man” whose party will take donations from anything that walks on two legs –

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/03/turnbull-says-shorten-must-boot-dastyari-to-prove-he-is-on-australias-side

    I get sick and bloody tired of, to quote Monty Python, “Australia, Australia, Australia” being used by a party whose first and only allegiance lies with the biggest donors and corporations. If Turdbullshit believes in this country so much then he should move his millions back here. Will that happen? No way, he’s not going to pay any tax if he can avoid it. Wanker!

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