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Day to Day Politics: Labor (nationally) the big winner in Queensland

Tuesday 28 November 2017

1 Post any election there comes a period of analysis where the event is discussed, dissected, pulled apart, turned upside down, rattled, shaken, and then put back together, just so that we can analyse what people were thinking and how the might think in the future.

In addition to the effects of the state election on Queensland, people were looking for what it means for the next national election. It now looks assured that Queenslanders have returned the Palaszczuk led minority government with a majority in its own right. It had a 1.5 per cent swing against it which is pretty much standard for any incumbent.

At first blush it would seem that One Nation under-performed after over-inflating its chances. James Ashby was predicting up to 10 seats but without a more geographically concentrated spread of candidates this was nigh on impossible. One Nation was guilty of over-inflating its chances.

However, the fact is that One Nation polled 13.7 per cent statewide and when you compare it with its spectacular performance of 23 per cent in 1998, you might conclude that they have gone backwards. Not so. Far from it, in fact. It equates to 1 in 7 voters. They would appear to be all LNP voters who have jumped ship. Replicated nationwide they may well hold the balance of power in the Senate after the next election.

As I said earlier, Labor had a 1.5 swing against it while the swing against the Liberal/National coalition amounted to five times as much.

Independent poll analyst John Stirton points out that:

“When you don’t contest all the seats and you still get 14 per cent of the vote, it’s a pretty strong vote for a minor party – it’s more than the National Party has ever won, or the Greens, or the Democrats.”

It means serious trouble for Turnbull’s Coalition if that is repeated around Australia and there’s no reason to doubt that it won’t. Maybe it’s time the two parties went their separate ways with the Nats representing the bush and the Libs becoming the extreme right-wing Conservative party many want it to be. It’s clear that they cannot go on fighting as they are now.

Just what it is that draws people to the likes of Hanson is frustratingly foreign to me. She cannot with nasal twang even articulate her thought processes, let alone policy. She seems is particularly prone to listening to people like Malcolm Roberts who seemingly present well, but in essence are full of bullshit yet she has not the intelligence to see through it. In the Parliament One Nation always votes with the government so it’s even more difficult to fathom just what it is they stand for.

But who are these 14 per cent of Hansonites? They are probably people dissatisfied with “establishment” politics and would probably return to the Coalition if they were more in the image of One Nation. However, the Coalition can ill afford to lose so many of its base. Shorten would be laughing all the way to the next election.

So how do we describe One Nation? Are they just a populist movement or are they an anti-conservative establishment party. Crikey, what a dilemma.

The federal Nationals MP George Christensen had the answer. The Coalition should “stand up more for conservative values”, he said.

As it is the Nationals are practically running the country, Turnbull has so capitulated on so many policies that you would be hard-pressed not to describe them as a far-right conservative party.

But Christensen wants more:

“I think a lot of that starts with the Turnbull government, its leadership and its policy direction.”

“I’m sorry that we in the LNP have let you down and now we need to listen more, work harder, stand up more for conservative values and regional Queensland and do better to win your trust and your vote.”

He wants the leader to be replaced with a hard right conservative who wears conservatism on his sleeve. One of their own like Dutton or Morisson.

Quoting Stirton again:

It’s self-serving for the destabilising Coalition mavericks like Christensen to divide the government, harm its standing, then turn around and say, “The solution is us.” The solution,”is presumably to provide a better quality centre-right leadership”.

Of course Christensen’s comments must be balanced by the fact that Ayr, Bowen and parts of Townsville – areas where hordes of voters appeared to swing from the LNP to One Nation are in his electorate. Christensen has a big gut but whether he will use it and cross the floor to vote with the opposition for a Royal Commission into the banks is another matter. If he is feeling a greater need to retain his seat he might even resign and join One Nation.

When analysing it all there are those that might say “well at least that moron Malcolm Roberts has gone.” I’m told that on Saturday night when he was in a state of denial that:

“James Ashby, Pauline Hanson’s right-hand man, driver of the Battler’s Bus and guest on the Nine panel, sought to calm the former senator, who was found by the High Court to hold dual Australian-British citizenship, however much he had denied it.

“You’ve done an exceptional job,” said Ashby. “This is a much better result than your Senate campaign.”

“Well, quite. Roberts spent his brief and strange career in the Senate having got precisely 77 personal votes.”

As I said, Shorten must be laughing all the way to the next election.

Footnote

The Nationals hold 16 of the government’s 76 seats in the House (21 per cent) and six of the government’s 30 senators. They have five spots in the 23-member cabinet (21.7 per cent), only one of seven in the outer ministry, but three of 12 (25 per cent) among the assistant ministers. Overall, they hold 10 of the 42 spots (almost 24 per cent) in the Turnbull ministry. In the lower house they receive much less of the National vote than the Greens who have one seat in the house of reps.

2 This time last year the world lost the life of Tyrone Unsworth, a 13-year-old effeminate gay boy. He took his own life. His was a life that the Safe Schools program was designed to protect. But the bullies got him.

His mother said:

“Tyrone ended up being gay and a lot of people started picking on him. He was a really feminine male, he loved fashion, he loved make-up and the boys always picked on him, calling him gay-boy, faggot, fairy; it was a constant thing from Year 5. I feel like these people who were bullying Tyrone are the cause of why he is not here anymore. They pushed him to the edge”.

I wonder if the likes of Bernardi and Christensen in their quiet moments of reflection ever stop to consider their actions.

My thought for the day

“Life is an experience of random often unidentifiable patterns and indiscriminate consequences that don’t always have order nor require explanation. The more we relate to others the more we get to know ourselves”.


17 comments

  1. nurses1968

    John, I posted this elsewhere but think it fits here with your concerns of the PHON threat Figures by ABCs Antony Green ,voting at 76% counted
    Antony Green‏Verified account @AntonyGreenABC

    At #qldvotes One Nation polled 13.7%, 9.7 in south-east and 21.4 in rest of state.
    Looking only at seats One Nation contested, the party polled 20.7%,
    18.4% in south-east 23.1% in rest of state.

  2. John Lord

    Nurses 1968 thanks. Reinforces my point.

  3. Harquebus

    Labor appears to have won the QLD election but, it is the people of QLD who will lose. No major party has the policies to truly address our predicament. When Labor wins the federal election, it will be all Australians that will lose. No political party in Australia has the courage to change course and extract us from our predicament. We will only ever see more of the same until, it is far too late.

    All politicians “present well, but in essence are full of bullshit”.

  4. Klaus Tomanke

    Bernardi, Christensen and their ilk do not reflect on their actions, because they are psychopaths!

  5. Freethinker

    What it is happens in Queensland and Australia for that matter it is happens in many other countries. The big traditional parties do not offer the solutions that the people want.
    I agree that ON has performed well and the only reason why they do not have the representatives that they reserve for having so many votes is because the Australian system.
    For the same reason the Greens do not have at federal level more seats in the parliament than the Nationals.
    Soon or later something has to give and I hope that will be the left of the ALP that will do something about it.

  6. johno

    Unfortunately, the Bjelki spirit lives on.

  7. wam

    truth, Lord?, or lies by omission?
    KAP 2% 10 candidates 2 seats? PHON 13.9% 61 candidates 0 seats Dibransimkims 9.69% 93 candidates 0 seats?

    ‘But who are these 14 per cent of Hansonites? They are probably people dissatisfied with “establishment” politics and would probably return to the Coalition if they were more in the image of One Nation.’

    Why ‘probably’ do you not know people who vote for one nation, Lord?

    Have you not spoken with Hansonites(rabbottians) or looked at the facebook of letter writers?

    The ABC, A Rog Ant Green, has put the perspective in his wheel where people, like most here, are listed as degrees of labor/green but my national friends are not differentiated from liberals because green cannot separate their policies. I find that significant as the loonie left is different but the loonie right isn’t.

    ps Lord, do you draw no conclusions as to why phon stood 61 candidates and greens 93?

    pps free thinker,
    The Lord often attests to the intellectual level of voters.
    Do you suggest if the people could think they will understand the solutions they want?
    Funny that nearly 70% voted against minor parties.
    Less than 10% in 93 seats took the opportunity to select the loonie left but 14% took the opportunity to vote for the loonie right in 61 seats
    ppps bjelke inherited labor’s love of gerrymander and looked after the bush. He neglected brisbane QED

  8. Freethinker

    wam November 28, 2017 at 9:37 am

    pps free thinker,
    The Lord often attests to the intellectual level of voters.
    \Do you suggest if the people could think they will understand the solutions they want?
    Funny that nearly 70% voted against minor parties.
    Less than 10% in 93 seats took the opportunity to select the loonie left but 14% took the opportunity to vote for the loonie right in 61 seats

    No, I do not suggest anything but believe that those that are being in disadvantage for many years under both traditional parties are doing a protest vote and in many cases they think that “they are all the same” so do not care about the consequences.
    Regarding the 70% against small parties that it is common in all the world for many factors including traditional vote (even by generations in the family) and also financial power by the big parties.
    Regarding the small percentage of votes for what you call “a loonie left” what you expect when many voters do not vote for the Greens because are “red inside”

  9. helvityni

    Who knows, maybe Anna will become Mutti of Queensland, just like Angela in Germany…. 🙂 I bet the Libs would love it, or maybe not… 🙂

    At least she stayed calm , and talked about other things than badmouthing the other side.

    The ‘game-changer’ Turnbull has one subject matter: Bill Bashing…rather childish, methinks,,,

  10. Jaquix

    Im happy with Annastacia’s calm, decent persona and glad her govt seems to have prevailed. Compared to self-centred LNP full of spin, she’s refreshingly normal. The new MPs a nice young enthusiastic bunch, hopefully 1 on the Gold Coast which is otherwise wall to wall Libs. Pauline gets inordinate media attention. Appeals to gullible exLibs who don’t bother looking at policy. ,Now we watch Bennelong. Truffles came out with $100 million overnight to shore up bland Alexanders chances and saving his own skin. And the citizenship bunfight.

  11. guest

    Everywhere we hear about so many people are saying that the two major parties are not producing what they want, so they vote for someone else. They speak of minor parties which “say what I think” or “listen to me” – but when they are asked are unable to articulate what it is the minor party is saying. The voter votes in some blind hope, or just to give the major parties a kick in the backside. But do they really achieve anything at all?.

    So we get people with strange belief in the power of Adani to create jobs for Aboriginal people and whole towns who think Adani would be their saviour. Yet the facts about Adani make a mockery of this apparently entrenched hope. And there do not seem to be any alternative job creation enterprises, even though some people seem to offer suggestions, but the hope is in an enterprise which would only increase the carbon emissions contributed by Australia. Too often, Climate Change is just not part of the conversation.

    All of these matters could be seen on Q&A last night, which was rather too much a talk-fest in which the real issues – what people really want and how to get it – was touched upon only in the vaguest passing mention, if that.

    We have a great deal about how badly Turnbull is doing and the problems with his back bench. We have accusations that Shorten is not making enough loud shouting opposition. And we have some claim that Hanson has failed badly – or not.

    We have Harquebus telling us both major parties are leading us in a hand-basket to hell; goodness knows what he thinks of minor parties. But he has no explanation for how any Oz party could reasonably do what he wants this side of 2050.

    What do these critics really want from our politicians – and why is it, as Joseph Carli has asked – that with all the thinking people we have across the country, all the academics, all the think tanks, all the business lobbyists, all the thinking people across the world, we still don’t know what to do?

    One thougth I have had is that there are so many people who have just one or two things they want done, some hope or speciality, that it is impossible for any one party to achieve it all to the satisfaction of all citizens. So what happens: we get many small parties jockeying for position with deals and alliances, trying to get into power, even with people they disagree with or even seriously oppose. Which is the kind of internal position that Turnbull and his crazy cronies find themselves in. Is that the kind of thing we can expect in the future?

  12. Patagonian

    I can’t agree that Moon Unit Roberts presents well. He presents as exactly as he is – a wild-eyed, unhinged conspiracy theorist who does not understand what the word ’empirical’ means.

  13. jimhaz

    I think people actively WANT TO DISLIKE/HATE. Left, right or moderate we practically all do it. I see it as instinctual derived from the cutthroat business of the survival of the fittest part of evolution. It is not something that can be completely overcome by education, and nor should it be as the leftist utopia is simply a dream – wait and see what happens to racial tensions when the shit hits the fan.

    We are creatures of habit so many people do not like change, unless it is change of the type they think benefits them. One of those changes is immigration levels and the make up of the immigration. Over the last decade 63% of migrants have been from that set of countries that are in the “least like us” group. With immigration numbers now so large this has meant that the last decade of migration “the least like us” group have overtaken the total numbers for the preceding 3 decades.

    The globalisation of labour for big business has gone too far as all human trends would appear to do so. The left thought police are also going way too far nowadays and need to be crushed.

    I also think the world is moving way way too fast. We sleep and dream so that our brains can take stock – but change is so pronounced and generally in the negative that brains we are not being adequately renewed and we become testy. Immigration works best in waves, and historically that is how it has been managed – but of late (15 years) it has become a tsunami instead, partly because of the BAD recession proofing our governments have done.

    Those are couple of factors. There would be dozens more.

  14. Glenn Barry

    Life is about the propagation of the genetic code of each and every organism on the planet – all else is superfluous – when unmitigated destructive human behaviour puts that possibility at risk for all life on the planet, then there will be a mass re-examination of all values.
    Timing is everything…

  15. Peregrine McCauley

    J.I.M.H.A.S . Acronym :
    J , Janiform – having two faces .
    I , Inaniloquent – prone to foolish , empty babbling .
    M , Misology – hatred of reason or knowledge .
    H , Hebetate – to make dull or obtuse .
    A , Ablepsia – blindness .
    S , Sciolism – superficial pretensions to knowledge .
    I hereby rest the Crown’s case m’lud .
    ” After one minutes adjudication on this matter , I hereby find , overwhelmingly , for the Crown. Court costs awarded to the Commonwealth.
    Arise ” !
    I

  16. guest

    jimhas, you think the “leftist utopia is simply a dream” and the rightist utopia of the American Dream is not?

    The neo-liberal notion of gobbling up the world resources for perpetual growth is exactly what is destroying the planet. Climate Change induced by human generated carbon emissions is undeniable and is one reason why we have mass migration.

    In your criticism of migration you have considered only recent migration. You need to consider mass world migration, including the C19th European invasion of “Terra Nullius”, later called Australia.

    As for “bad recession proofing”, what are you talking about? Just weird..

  17. guest

    I see where someone is saying the switch from Tony to Malcolm was a “disaster”. Tony was a disaster already..

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