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Day to Day Politics: Gathered thoughts on an election wake up call.

Saturday July 9 2016

1 So much has been happening that I have neglected to post my thoughts on the many aspects of what can only be called an election wake up call. Whilst Bill Shorten has not yet conceded it seems certain that the Coalition will govern in a minority or with a small majority.

2 In essence it means we will have a Government weakened not only in parliamentary numbers but in public support. The electorate certainly gave them the bashing I said they would get.

The voters are primed to take to someone with weapons of mass destruction. It might as well be the government. Don’t be surprised.

The MSM – especially the Murdoch press – misread the mood of the electorate and got it completely wrong. They expected a more decisive Coalition victory and wrote it up that way.

The Government will find themselves completely compromised with a Senate more difficult than the last. If Turnbull intends to bluff his way through with his existing program then all hell will break loose.

It also finds itself irreconcilably divided on ideology. The hard-right of the Liberal Party together with the National Party deeply despise Turnbull so it’s difficult to see how the Prime Minister can navigate his way through the complex issues facing the nation. Turnbull has been so fundamentally wounded that it is hard to see how he can possibly recover. My guess is that the right will have their way and the PM will be gone within 12 months.

It’s a wonderful word and one that was thrown about so earnestly during the campaign: “stability”. Yes, that was it.

3 The indomitable ‘mouth that roared’ Chrissy Pyne on Friday declared that the Coalition had won. The fact that six seats were still in doubt didn’t deter him.

4 All writers have their sources. I have a couple of people who continuously alert me to things of interest. Here are some from my friend Tim:

A Senator Muir said 80 percent of politics is a game.

B How do people explain that Turnbull suffered a two percent swing against him and Abbott a ten percent swing? Both have what are considered safe liberal seats.

C Millions of people did not vote. Although figures are not final about 11 million have voted. There should be about 16 million people voting.

(Note: 3 Million didn’t vote in 2013).

D is Bernardi’s website. He is either playing a game or is quite serious about starting a conservative party.

Does anyone seriously think that Bernardi’s comments about the Government’s poor performance was anything other than making a point about his pet obsessions like gay marriage, Muslims and the republic?

The fact is that if Turnbull is to be in any way effective he will have to confront the likes of Christianson and Bernardi, headbutt them, and show the electorate he is his own man.

If I were a praying man I would be on my knees now.

E Hanson is going to have a great relationship with the conservatives. Abbott paid for court action that landed her in jail. Turnbull said she was not welcome in Parliament.

F Look at number 49 of the IPA wish list. Privatise Medicare.

4 From another of my sources (unnamed):

Re: this commentary of the ALP running a ‘scare’ campaign on Medicare. It made me think of similar so-called ‘scare’ campaigns conducted over the years: i. Every Australian man, woman and child owes $10,000 each to pay off Australia’s foreign debt (John Howard 1996); ii. Children are being thrown overboard from asylum seeker boats so people can force their way into Australia (John Howard & Peter Reith 2001); iii. Terrorists are smuggling themselves into Australia in asylum seeker boats (Peter Reith 2001); iv the Terrorists are marking their calendars and hoping for a Obama victory in 2008 (John Howard 2007); v. a price on carbon will mean $100 for the price of a leg of lamb (Barnaby Joyce 2012); vi. A carbon tax will wipe out the city of Whyalla (several senior coalition figures 2012) and the list goes on and on and on. Memo to Libs: Remember the message given by right-wing commentator Janet Albrechtson in 2004 to Labor following their election loss on 9 October: ‘Grab the tissues and dry your eyes, princesses…”

As the Foreign Minister explained it on the ABC’s 7.30, the Coalition’s “positive campaign” was resonating with voters until Labor flicked the switch to negative, scared voters witless and changed the course of the election.

If it was a scare campaign it was one with a great deal of historic evidence to support it.

5 By the way the first Essential Poll post-election has the parties 50/50.

6 The wash-up on the election is this: Shorten made himself a large target with policies that were controversial, but well thought through. Turnbull made himself a small target with using slogans rather than policies. The electorate saw through two things. The emptiness of “jobs and growth”, the non-existing plan. In addition they were greatly confused with who the real Malcolm was.

Shorten won the campaign, if not the election.

My thought for the day.

There is no such thing as an original idea because there is always a preceding pathway of thought“.

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57 comments

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  1. Bighead1883

    A fair summary of the tumultuous complicit roar of the MSM beating the LNP drum John

    Many of the Australian version of FOX News,SKY had the Coalition on 80+ in seats and Plibbers was the only invited on pollie to call a hung parliament [which may be the case]

    John,it seems to this reader that Murdoch even with 80%+ of the Aussie MSM has lost the kingmaker edge he has enjoyed for over half a century

    Yet the deliberate protection racket of hiding Turnbull from proper debate still worked on those weak of mind or lonely for intelligence
    The morning programs on television reached the moronic decades ago but now a description for them escapes me other than my new favourite word from this election lead up “discombobulate”

    The Senate make up is where the main game is taking place and Australia needs to,as you say, “pray” that the door is not ajar

  2. Peter F

    I think that, under the circumstances which confront us world wide, and the poor state this ‘government have put us in over the past few years, the election outcome is the best thing for Australia. The coalition is in a situation which they are incapable of controlling, and are unable to negotiate their way through. We need to endure this difficult time where their gross stupidity will be made clear for all who have not yet seen it, before we elect a government capable of creating a united country for all to enjoy the benefits it offers.

  3. cornlegend

    Just a personal opinion, but I would have liked to see the “Independents” act like true Independents and sit on the cross benches and judge Legislation case by case
    There seems to have been a degree of indecent haste in signing up to Turnbulls request for their support on Supply and confidence.
    FFS. they knocked themselves out jumping on the Turnbull bandwagon well before the vote tally is complete.
    To his credit, Bandt has taken a principled decision to stay out of the fray and let the Turnbull government struggle as it may.
    Nick Xenophon is making noises that his crowd will also join Katter, McGown and Wilkie in supply in “confidence and supply” and Xenophon has indicated he is likely to support the ABCC in the Senate.
    In the Gillard negotiation, Oakeshott and Windsor, to the frustration of many took 17 days to come to a decision on support.
    This current lot of ‘alleged Independents’ were in bed with Malcolm, with the sheets pulled over their heads in record time
    It may seem strange coming from me, but good on Greens Adam Bandt for not sharing the feather bed before even the vote could had been finalised and the makeup of the 45th Parliament of Australia determined,
    We had the opportunity of seening Turnbull with a likely majority of one seeking to govern.
    Now with 3, possible 4 bobbleheads sitting in wait, to nod approval, he has some wiggle room to pillage and plunder

  4. Bighead1883

    cornlegend July 9, 2016 at 8:14 am

    Oh dear,shocked and awed I am comrade,not at the ungodly haste the brown noses took the sniff in behind Turnbull [which was all part of the LNP/Greens Senate reform agenda] but at your admiration for Adam Bandt

    We all make mistakes and I will forgive you————————————————————————————–in time

  5. Kaye Lee

    From my understanding, none of the Independents have agreed to support any particular legislation. Their announcements were unnecessary and mean very little – Turnbull would have formed government without any announcement from them. Katter did say he won’t tolerate union bashing.

  6. gee

    the murdoch press was doing exactly what it always does and indeed is its reason for existence, attempting to manufacture consent.

  7. cornlegend

    Kaye Lee
    My point was, the indecent haste they jumped on board.{now it seems not needed anyway}
    He seems he won’t need them {with 77} but they didn’t even wait for the vote count to complete before signing up .
    It must give Malcolm a warm inner glow to know he has them there.
    Imagine if after a Speaker, he was left to govern with one and have a bunch of 5 undeclared sitting on the cross benches.
    They had a chance to add to his heartache, but given 2 are conservate by nature anyhow, no surprises
    AND Kaye Lee, I haven’t heard back from Malcolm in regard to giving George Christensen the Minister for Womens job, but did see he brought Duttton into the leadership team

  8. cornlegend

    Bighead,
    the admiration ended there re Bandt, , I’m now back to my old self

  9. Lindsay Stafford

    @cornlegend

    Just a personal opinion, but I would have liked to see the “Independents” act like true Independents and sit on the cross benches and judge Legislation case by case

    Actually that is exactly what Katter, McGowan and Wilkie have proposed, Katter with the caveat that if Turnbull commences “union bashing, all bets are off”, and McGowan has implied that the same would apply to the ALP in the now unlikely event that they could form government

    .”confidence and supply” are just the minimum requirements for a somewhat stable government. It acts as a sort of warning to the opposition not to buggerise around being obstreperous. Not that that is likely to happen, being obstreperous is a typical right wing attribute.

  10. SGB

    The fact that Katter jumped to support a lame duck (government and pm) did not surprise me but to hear that Xenophon has also indicated support as well, flabergasts me – I thought and I presume his supporters thought – he was a progressive, seems I was wrong!
    It now looks like he is only interested in keeping his seat warm by supporting Turnbull; well I suppose he does ensure at least a few more months in his seat and can, hand on heart, say that he was on the look out for his electerate.
    He also said he was going to be looking out for manufacturing jobs nation wide – bit by supporting an extreme neoliberalist government – its a strange way of going about it!

    SGB

  11. Michael Taylor

    IMHO, support in the Lower House is going to be irrelevant. If the Coaltion have, 75 seats, 100 seats, or 150 seats for that matter, it is still a lame government given its fragile position in the Senate.

  12. Kaye Lee

    The ABC are predicting 76 to 69. One good thing, it might put a brake on overseas junkets. They can’t afford to be swanning around the world. Tim Wilson will be devastated.

  13. Freethinker

    cornlegend, also remember that it is a policy of the ALP to never block supply.
    I do not care much about the position of the independents as long as we have a senate that will keep the draconian government tame.
    As the senate it is now IMO it is better that the Coalition is in government, it will be a chaos.

  14. ozibody

    If I heard correctly, Mr.Katter has secured the promise of a ” Dam ” for his electorate ,plus something else (which eludes me currently) – takes me back to my youth in Q’ld when “Dams” won votes!!

    Further along I think Russ Hinze finessed this ” strategy ” !! ….. 😉 …..

    Mr. K should also heed Mr. T’s remark (warning) about it being O K to change ones mind on ” promises ” !! ……… sort of takes the ” P ” out of Promise ….. 😉 …..

  15. cornlegend

    Michael Taylor
    I don’t disagree on most.
    This Senate should be fun muscle flexing, testosterone .
    I think the Policies on Asylum and Climate are now on hold till 2019

  16. cornlegend

    Kaye Lee
    Yeah, but you still have George 😀

  17. cornlegend

    There are still some rumours and rumblings floating around within ALP circles that a challenge on Bill might arise during the 7 day period.
    I hope not, and I have let all and sundry know my opinion.
    I think Bill has grown into the job, provides the steady hand required and above all, could you imagine the MSM on “disunity”
    The would fall over themselves with joy

  18. brickbob

    This new Senate is going to be a real ” One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest” situation,it will be a lunatic asylum inhabited and run by lunatics,and Turnbull is going to rue the day he called this election because it will be the end of him and his Government.”””””””

  19. Jennifer Meyer-Smith

    Hear, hear Freethinker.

    The LNP are significantly weakened. Parliament will feel less comfortable for the survivors now that the numbers are evening out.

    More reason for everybody on ALL the Opposition benches to keep their focus on exposing the incompetence of the LNP and blocking every attempt of passing regressive legislation through.

  20. cornlegend

    Lindsay Stafford
    The comments made by others her on the “Independents” seems to add weight to my concerns.
    McGowan has previously shown her worth to the LNP cause, supporting 440 Bills and Legislation since 2013 and gave her support to Bronwyn Bishop in the Speaker “no confidence motion”.
    Katters half a lifetime in the LNP tent and Xenophons mutterings already on ABCC just add to my concerns.
    Wilkie I think will play with a straight bat.
    he is the only one to have done so previously

  21. Möbius Ecko

    A carbon tax will wipe out the city of Whyalla…

    Just an aside. It was a union who first made that statement in relation to the carbon price that was taken up by the L-NP.

  22. Freethinker

    I agree with you brickbob, and Malcolm have started by saying that Hanson is not welcome.
    Hanson responded, quote: I’m going to be a thorn in their bloody side.
    I can see that if few years there will be a TV seies about this senate.

  23. Ella

    John, thank you for your comprehensive report.
    I wish I could feel as confident about the Senate as others do.
    It appears that the so called independent senators all have a price tag.
    How easily they are bought will depend on how much “power” there is in the Senate.
    I fear that there will be very few so called independents who can’t be bought.
    Will there be enough?

  24. cornlegend

    Former Independent Rob Oakeshott said he lost this election due to loose #Greens votes going to the The National Party.

  25. jantonius

    Man kicks dog once voted for Greens

  26. cornlegend

    What the are cruel to animals as well?
    Dicky pays slave wages, Greens kick dogs :-{ it’s getting worse
    No wonder they had the worst Senate vote since 2004
    Must be plenty of dog lovers

  27. John Lord

    Thanks for your comments but why isn’t anyone excited.

  28. cartoonmick

    Thanks John, nice précis.

    The Electorate has spoken,,, well, most of it.

    The Senate now is a Pandora’s Box and will be a source of bewilderment and frustration for all who have to deal with it. (Good luck Mister Wizniski).

    The Libs are about to tear themselves apart, with the hard Right determined our nation will be run as they demand, and the rest of Australia not happy with that “mean and soulless” idea.

    There are many political elements to be played out over the next 12 months with winners and losers along the way. Unfortunately, I feel the consistent loser is going to be the average family as they get hit with the “mean and soulless” policies.

    So, who will do what, where and when? Well, check out that speculation in this little YouTube cartoon . . .

    https://youtu.be/MNjZC2QZrUk

    Cheers
    Mick

  29. Lj

    We all know Tunrbull/Turnballs got no guts, no pride, no courage, no conviction, no self worth and he definately has no honor for his own policies and is a yellowbellied coward who lacks strength to lead, he prefers to follow. Look at his gutless decision to review Safeschools just because of 3 conservatives in his party..Bernadi, Christenson and shelton, that say’s it all. Oh the fact he had no leadership skills to get up and tell his own ministers off for making and stating false, misleading, inaccurate and demeaning comments regarding both same sex marriage and safe schools. either publicly or in parliament. He expected us to believe that a plebiscite would be respectable and calm, ( That go blown out of to be a lie because of his own ministers, ) He say’s prior to becoming the prime minister that the liberals are just holding abogus plebiscite, yet continues in that direction after becoming prime minister thenadmits publicly his liberals would have a free vote regardless of the plebiscite result which he said would sail through the parliament if the majority of australians approved it./

    So how does this Turnbull/TUnballs expect us to believe anything that comes out of his damn liberal team or his own mouth, I think he needs a human waste container strapped to his ass and mouth for all the shit he speaks.

  30. cartoonmick

    John Lord
    July 9, 2016 at 3:19 pm
    Thanks for your comments but why isn’t anyone excited

    John, I watched Christopher Pyne on TV last night, he seemed excited.
    Something about an “election machine”.
    I’m not sure if your ride it, listen to it, or put some part of your anatomy in it

    Anyway, it certainly excited him, which didn’t please Malcolm, who hasn’t been pleased since the polls closed last Saturday.
    And I doubt he will be please (or excited) at any stage between now and the next election (or LNP bloodletting).

    Hope that helps.
    Cheers
    Mick

  31. Michael Taylor

    John, I’m excited. The next three years are going to be fun to watch. But it’s a pity – yes, there is a downside – the government will do nothing and the country will go nowhere. The only plan the government will have is some evil plan on how to win the next election.

    It’s all very predictable. The government won’t be able to work with the Senate so the Murdoch media will be going all out the discredit the non-Coalition senators in the hope we elect senators who will be Coalition friendly.

  32. helvityni

    Well John, I know of someone; Mal almost fell when rushing to hug and congratulate Julia Banks (Chisholm). Very un-characteristic for Turnbull all that hugging.

    Maybe he wasn’t happy for Julia, but for himself.

  33. cornlegend

    John Lord
    I’m excited!!
    As cartoonmick pointed out Chrissy Pyne is excited,
    Pauline and Derryn seem pretty chuffed as well,Dutton seems excited about his promotion { I think, he had that dumb smirky look on his dial } ,Sussan Ley seemed less excited, Albo and Tanya seem pretty excited too, putting the pretenders in their place in their respective electorates,and Bill is pretty excited too, waiting to apply the blow torch to the overall less excited Turnbull MPs, Sophie also seemed less excited, but then Mal might put her back to work, on an bloated salary, kick starting submarines, Gina was so excited at Barnabys return she thought about writing another poem, Uhllman and Sales were excited that they got their team home Bolt is semi excited as he sees a gap for Tony to wiggle his way up, Sloppy Joe is excited because he got out and got a fat cheque on top of his fat pension and didn’t have to face the voters
    And I just got doubly excited as the missus has agreed that we should head to Parliament, on resumption and spend a fortnight up there watching the Senate and House of Reps go to it ,
    Now Turnbull has won {which didn’t make me excited} but now , I’m excited and hopeful he can get one more seat and I will have picked their winning margin to the exact nunber of seats, And TommyWaterhousedotcom mightn’t be excited because I had a decent old go an that bet
    We live in exciting times John:-D

  34. cornlegend

    Michael TaylorJuly 9, 2016 at 3:53 pm

    “John, I’m excited. The next three years are going to be fun to watch. ”

    Amen to that brother 😀

  35. Jennifer Meyer-Smith

    … and I’m excited that Labor has 3 more years to kiss and make up with the Greens, so we can give the LNP regime the coup de grace and put them and us out of our misery.

    You know you really want to do it! 😀

  36. cornlegend

    Glenn Lazarus

    Formal Complaint to AEC Lodged Today

    I have today lodged my official complaint with the AEC regarding the conduct of the 2016 Federal Election. Too many people were unable to vote due to a shortage of ballot papers, closure of polling booths, removal of details from the electoral roll and a range of other issues.

  37. Freethinker

    I am not sure if the AL:P and Greens will get together, further more the experience in Tasmania was negative and is can cost them the 3rd senate seat.
    Regarding the 3 years you are optimistic and do not thing that the government will be able to pass this and the next budget policies.
    If it is correct the rumor that the Greens have given preferences in some seats to the National, then they will be better change the leader very soon.

  38. ' george hanson '

    Here’s a thing ! On the first day of the newly sworn-in parliament, EVERY member of parliament has their total super-annuation payment FOR THE NEXT 3 YEARS deposited into their various accounts , on day1….. 36months X monthly super payment …on day ONE .The full amount . Here is the kicker ………if an early election is called ….and those members who retain their seat ………don’t have to pay back the difference .DOUBLE BUBBLE .Gotta love the elites. Game on !

  39. jantonius

    As of the count last Monday:
    Labor polled primary 35%. Their second lowest primary since 1949.
    The Coalition polled 42% – about their vote when Rudd beat them in 2007.

    These results followed perhaps the worst performing Government in Federal history.
    Labor have to lift their primary vote to the high 30s, to gain Government in their own right.
    How are they going to do that?

    Waiting on the Libs to self-destruct might be the setting for disillusion. It may not happen, or not happen to Labor’s sufficient benefit.

    The MSM will remain strongly the Libs strongest ally. The ABC is now in the hands of a former Murdoch apparatchik; which will not improve them.

  40. Jennifer Meyer-Smith

    I find that very hard to believe, Freethinker.

    The only way that might have happened is if the Nats got the 4th preference after Labor at 2nd or 3rd with less inviting candidates such as Rise Up Australia Party coming after the Nats.

  41. cornlegend

    Jennifer Meyer-SmithJuly 9, 2016 at 5:04 pm

    … “and I’m excited that Labor has 3 more years to kiss and make up with the Greens,”
    After last nights little rant about the “f**king ALP ” etc etc .
    Why on earth, with a party like the you cursed to high hell last night , ALP, do you persist with this alliance nonsense

    Don’t tell me it will take 3 more years of telling you IT WON’T HAPPEN.
    Jennifer, start a Party, keep your self busy,

    The ALLiance is dead R.I.P.
    actually, It was stillborn
    No, actually contraception worked !!

  42. Jennifer Meyer-Smith

    I like cornlegend’s idea of paying a visit to parliament to let Malcolm Muck know we’re all watching and waiting for their cracks to get worse.

    The bonus will be to let the Opposition Parties know that we’re here to help.

  43. Freethinker

    This is in USA and looks familiar IMO
    Stein, the leader of the Greens said, quote:
    “It’s a mistake to think the lesser of two evils will fix things. A lot of people are in the target hairs of a neoliberalist nightmare. Wars are bankrupting us morally and financially. At least when Republicans are elected, people fight – when Democrats are elected, people are lulled into complacency and fall asleep.”

    The same case applies here, if the Coalition is elected, people fight, if the ALP are elected people are lulled into complacency and fall asleep.

    Interesting how similar we are……

  44. Jennifer Meyer-Smith

    I agree with Freethinker, 150%.

    Hence the need for The ALLiance so the complacency won’t set in.

  45. Freethinker

    There is one difference Jennifer, Stein is prepared to give the leadership of the Greens and candidate to the p residence to Bernie Sanders, something like if Di Natale will offer the leadership to Albo.

  46. Bacchus

    The primary vote alone is meaningless these days jantonius – Labor will probably never get into the high 30s again. Lots of minors & independents suck the primary vote away from the majors, but importantly, the votes come back to Labor via preferences.

    I’ve done that myself in the past as a form of protest vote – voted for someone other than Labor, knowing there’s no way they’ll be elected, and then preferenced Labor so they still ultimately get my vote…

  47. Jennifer Meyer-Smith

    Freethinker,

    Stein appears to be as equally enlightened as one of my heroes, Bernie Sanders. I can’t say the same for our Australian dinosaur bunch, who are tied to the nipples of neoliberalism.

    Despite that, her example is worthy of replicating here because Australian politics has the advantage of still judging the parties behind the leaders as much as the pathetic leader race.

    If I understand you correctly, Stein would not cling to her leadership rights if Bernie was still there. Alas, that is not the case. I don’t believe Di Natale is so presumptious to demand the leadership. It’s a moot point anyway because they are not the prospects of current Australian climate.

    The ALLiance of proportional representation once in government will suffice for now. The rest can develop incrementally over sensible time.

    More emphasis on the teams behind the leaders is essential in MSM which social media already understands. More emphasis must be on the appartchiks and the character of their supporters.

  48. Jennifer Meyer-Smith

    Excuse me cornlegend,

    if I don’t have a peep at your little mate, Bighead’s meme for a while until I have done more important things. 🙁

  49. Jennifer Meyer-Smith

    Ok, I’ve now had a look at both …

    … and sorry but they both confirm my belief you both need saving from yourselves.

    Go The ALLiance!

  50. Freethinker

    Jennifer, this is what Stein said:
    “I’ve invited Bernie to sit down explore collaboration – everything is on the table,” she said. “If he saw that you can’t have a revolutionary campaign in a counter-revolutionary party, he’d be welcomed to the Green party. He could lead the ticket and build a political movement,”

    If only we will have this kind of determination here to have a fair government for all………….

  51. Jennifer Meyer-Smith

    Yes, Freethinker, I am in full agreement.

  52. wam

    Slogans make lies sound simple. Repeating slogans makes people feel good and truthens the lies.
    Refuting slogans needs complex explanations. QED Slogans are effective in elections
    The pynenut is a fixer, an election winning machine but, surely, no labor person thought
    I like plato science is nothing but perception.
    Were these the result of perception with no prior thought? Slinky, pencillin, microwave
    ps jms and ft
    we have diludbran who often make proposals/decisions like stein that do favour the rupublican/coalition

  53. Jennifer Meyer-Smith

    wam,

    please provide an interpretation service each time you comment, otherwise I will again state you’re automated. Woops!

  54. The AIM Network

    JMS, that’s the way wam comments. I find it entertaining.

  55. Jennifer Meyer-Smith

    Ok, I’ll try to remember wam’s ways.

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