Saturday July 9 2016
1 So much has been happening that I have neglected to post my thoughts on the many aspects of what can only be called an election wake up call. Whilst Bill Shorten has not yet conceded it seems certain that the Coalition will govern in a minority or with a small majority.
2 In essence it means we will have a Government weakened not only in parliamentary numbers but in public support. The electorate certainly gave them the bashing I said they would get.
The MSM – especially the Murdoch press – misread the mood of the electorate and got it completely wrong. They expected a more decisive Coalition victory and wrote it up that way.
The Government will find themselves completely compromised with a Senate more difficult than the last. If Turnbull intends to bluff his way through with his existing program then all hell will break loose.
It also finds itself irreconcilably divided on ideology. The hard-right of the Liberal Party together with the National Party deeply despise Turnbull so it’s difficult to see how the Prime Minister can navigate his way through the complex issues facing the nation. Turnbull has been so fundamentally wounded that it is hard to see how he can possibly recover. My guess is that the right will have their way and the PM will be gone within 12 months.
It’s a wonderful word and one that was thrown about so earnestly during the campaign: “stability”. Yes, that was it.
3 The indomitable ‘mouth that roared’ Chrissy Pyne on Friday declared that the Coalition had won. The fact that six seats were still in doubt didn’t deter him.
4 All writers have their sources. I have a couple of people who continuously alert me to things of interest. Here are some from my friend Tim:
A Senator Muir said 80 percent of politics is a game.
B How do people explain that Turnbull suffered a two percent swing against him and Abbott a ten percent swing? Both have what are considered safe liberal seats.
C Millions of people did not vote. Although figures are not final about 11 million have voted. There should be about 16 million people voting.
(Note: 3 Million didn’t vote in 2013).
D is Bernardi’s website. He is either playing a game or is quite serious about starting a conservative party.
Does anyone seriously think that Bernardi’s comments about the Government’s poor performance was anything other than making a point about his pet obsessions like gay marriage, Muslims and the republic?
The fact is that if Turnbull is to be in any way effective he will have to confront the likes of Christianson and Bernardi, headbutt them, and show the electorate he is his own man.
If I were a praying man I would be on my knees now.
E Hanson is going to have a great relationship with the conservatives. Abbott paid for court action that landed her in jail. Turnbull said she was not welcome in Parliament.
F Look at number 49 of the IPA wish list. Privatise Medicare.
4 From another of my sources (unnamed):
Re: this commentary of the ALP running a ‘scare’ campaign on Medicare. It made me think of similar so-called ‘scare’ campaigns conducted over the years: i. Every Australian man, woman and child owes $10,000 each to pay off Australia’s foreign debt (John Howard 1996); ii. Children are being thrown overboard from asylum seeker boats so people can force their way into Australia (John Howard & Peter Reith 2001); iii. Terrorists are smuggling themselves into Australia in asylum seeker boats (Peter Reith 2001); iv the Terrorists are marking their calendars and hoping for a Obama victory in 2008 (John Howard 2007); v. a price on carbon will mean $100 for the price of a leg of lamb (Barnaby Joyce 2012); vi. A carbon tax will wipe out the city of Whyalla (several senior coalition figures 2012) and the list goes on and on and on. Memo to Libs: Remember the message given by right-wing commentator Janet Albrechtson in 2004 to Labor following their election loss on 9 October: ‘Grab the tissues and dry your eyes, princesses…”
As the Foreign Minister explained it on the ABC’s 7.30, the Coalition’s “positive campaign” was resonating with voters until Labor flicked the switch to negative, scared voters witless and changed the course of the election.
If it was a scare campaign it was one with a great deal of historic evidence to support it.
5 By the way the first Essential Poll post-election has the parties 50/50.
6 The wash-up on the election is this: Shorten made himself a large target with policies that were controversial, but well thought through. Turnbull made himself a small target with using slogans rather than policies. The electorate saw through two things. The emptiness of “jobs and growth”, the non-existing plan. In addition they were greatly confused with who the real Malcolm was.
Shorten won the campaign, if not the election.
My thought for the day.
“There is no such thing as an original idea because there is always a preceding pathway of thought“.