Wednesday 20 April. -74 Days
1 Predictably the Conservatives have already started blaming Labor for everything. They inherited an enormous debt. We left them with none they say. They are the problem, not us. No mention of the Global Financial Crisis or why they doubled the debt.
In the meantime, now that the ABCC has been voted on, for which Turnbull allowed a fortnight, nobody seems to know what to do with the remainder of the time. There is no substantive business to debate. What will the members do? Stay or go. Perhaps they could adjourn to the bar on the public purse for a fortnight. Wouldn’t even need to take a vote on that one.
By committing to a date for the election he has, as Julia Gillard did, taken away the element of surprise. Naming the date so far in advance didn’t work for Gillard, it is unlikely to work for him.
In question time the Prime Minister said “the election would be about trust”.
I wouldn’t like to be backing that statement up with facts.
“It is an absolute principle of democracy that governments should not and must not say one thing before an election and do the opposite afterwards. Nothing could be more calculated to bring our democracy into disrepute and alienate the citizenry of Australia from their government than if governments were to establish by precedent that they could say one thing before an election and do the opposite afterwards” (Tony Abbott).
2 Sky News presenter Paul Murray has claimed to have seen the script of a TV add he says will be run straight after the budget saying that there are savings measures of $16 billion over four years. If this is true, what does four billion a year tell us? Well it tells us that they are not fairdinkum and unwilling to hurt their constituency. So much for fairness and budget repair. And guess who is paying for the advertisements? Well it’s not the Liberal Party. It’s illegal of course, but they will still do it.
3 The Morgan and Essential Polls on Tuesday came in with the parties on 50/50. Combined with the Ipos 51/49 and Newspoll 50/50 Monday it confirms the trend toward Labor which is of course a strange time to be going to an election. Added to this for the Coalition is the complexity of delivering a popular budget in the midst of a campaign. And of course running on policies of your predecessor rather that your own.
Morgan says that “If a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call and would likely result in a hung Parliament”.
What shouldn’t be overlooked is the fact that Labor needs a uniform swing of 4.3% and 21 seats if it is to win. My view is that on the current figures the Coalition would still win with a reduced majority.
Having said that, the majority of both parties’ policies are yet to be released. There are still 73 days to go.
In the Essential weekly survey 59% were in favour of a Royal Commission into banking with 15% opposed.
4 The power of public opinion. Telstra has decided to re-engage its support for marriage equality or to use their terminology. “Renewing its active position” on the issue. This comes only a few days after it said it no longer “drive further debate” on the subject.
My thought for the day.
“Never be burdened by the negativity of others. Wear positively as if your life depended on it”.
PS Wildcards in the election. Bronnie and her lovechild still have scores to settle.