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Category Archives: Environment

False Transitions and Global Stocktakes: The Failure of COP28

The time has come to treat the sequence of UN Climate Change Conferences, the latest concluding in Dubai, as a series of the failed and the abysmally rotten. It shows how a worthless activity, caked (oiled?) with appropriately chosen words, can actually provide assurance that something worthwhile was done. Along the way, there are always the same beneficiaries: fossil fuel magnates and satirists.

COP28, which featured 97,000 participants, including the weighty presence of 2,456 fossil fuel lobbyists, was even more of a shambles than its predecessor. Its location – in an oil rich state – was head scratching. Its chairman Sultan Al Jaber, taking advantage of the various parties who would attend, had sought to cultivate some side business for the United Arab Emirates, notably for the state oil company ADNOC.

This did not deter UN climate change bureaucrats and negotiators, who seemed to equate climate change policy with an account of goods held by a business. Consider the wording of the COP Agreement released on December 13: “The global stocktake is considered the central outcome of COP28 – as it contains every element that was under negotiation and can now be used by countries to develop stronger climate action plans due by 2025.” It was a “global stocktake” supposedly signalling the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era, to be facilitated by “laying the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emission cuts and scaled-up finance.”

These words have been treated as sacerdotal by many of its participants, the be all and end all, the event’s great culmination. But long hours of deliberation can confuse effort with achievement, and this proved to be no exception. Tinkering with meaning can be taken as a triumph. Recognising words such as “fossil fuels” and “science” can make delegates weak at the knees. Promises to set targets for a Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) make others swoon.

It was such tinkering that led to the call for a “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly, and equitable way with developed countries continuing to take the lead.” The emphasis here is on a “transition away” from their use, not their “phase out”, which is what 130 of the 198 participating parties were willing to accept.

The term “phase-down” was used regarding “unabated coal power” while “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” would be phased out, presumably leaving the question open as to what, exactly, efficient subsidies might look like. Parties were also “encouraged to come forward with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories and aligned with the 1.5°C in their next round of climate action plans (known as nationally determined contributions) by 2025.”

Jaber was in a gleeful mood at the outcome. The naysayers’ warning that the summit would be an unmitigated failure had been disproved. “Together, we have confronted realities and we have set the world in the right direction. We have given it a robust action plan to keep 1.5°C within reach. It is a plan that is led by the science.”

US climate change envoy John Kerry thought the document convincing: it sent “very strong messages to the world” providing a much firmer statement on preventing global warming from exceeding the 1.5°C limit. Danish Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen seemed to angle for praise in noting that his country, being “an oil rich country surrounded by oil countries that are now signing a piece of paper saying we need to move away from oil” was “historic”.

The agreement had an eager audience desperate to identify signs of progress. Prof. Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization called the COP28 agreement “historic in that – for the first time – it recognizes the need to transition away from fossil fuels for the first time.” Even the Scientific American made the observation that none of the previous 27 climate change conferences had even mentioned fossil fuels and its link to a rise in global temperatures.

A good gaggle of climatologists and geophysicists were less enthused. “The lack of an agreement to phase out fossil fuels,” opined Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania, “was devastating.” To use such an expression as “‘transition away from fossil fuels’ was weak tea at best. It’s like promising your doctor that you will ‘transition away from doughnuts’ after being diagnosed with diabetes.”

An editorial in Nature was also steely in rejecting the way science had been manipulated at the summit, noting Jaber’s own declaration on November 21 that there was no scientific basis that would necessitate phasing out fossil fuels to restrict global warming to the agreed limit. While the editorial had gone to press before the release of the final agreement, the journal was correct in assuming that it “would not include language on phasing out fossil fuels. That is more than a missed opportunity. It is dangerous.”

The dangers are considerable, given the number of transitioning states. They include, for instance, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who seeks the expansion of renewable energy while building coal-burning power plants, and the current US administration, whose Bureau of Land Management approved more oil and gas leases on federal lands in the first two years and seven months than the previous Trump administration did over the equivalent period. In the usual doublespeak of the Biden administration, such a policy could comfortably exist alongside its overall green strategy.

As weak tea as the document is, it’s not even binding. Countries can still pursue fossil fuel projects, at the behest of strong coal, gas and oil lobbies, even as they claim to be pursuing abating technologies that supposedly minimise emissions. In Australia, opposition spokesman for climate change and energy Ted O’Brien provided something of an exemplar of this. “While the final communique names fossil fuels, it also promotes carbon, capture and storage as abating technology for such fuels along with nuclear energy which can be a zero-emission substitute.”

The record of actions taken to such agreements is not promising. For one, COP28 seemed riddled with pledges and gestures, a matter of theatre. The heralded “loss and damage fund” received commitments to the total of US$700 million, but this is wretchedly meagre when compared to the annual US$200 to US$400 billion required by Africa alone, let alone the US$400 billion a year for climate change adaptation.

Debates of herculean obstinacy over word changes in a text can spell the doom of its object. In future experiments in hot air summitry of the sort witnessed at Dubai, the powerful and wealthy will have room to stretch and delay meaningful change, adopting that famous plea by St. Augustine: “Please God, make me good, but not just yet.”

 

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QLD steps up their ERT game: New Queensland Premier Steven Miles announces higher emission reduction targets and regional investment plan

Climate Media Centre: Media Release

After being sworn in as Queensland’s 40th Premiere, Steven Miles uses his first speech to announce his government’s priorities, which included ramping up the state’s previously inadequate emissions reduction targets (ERT), bringing Queensland targets more in line with the ERTs needed to avoid catastrophic climate harm.

Leading Queensland environment groups had called for a target of at least 90% emissions reductions by 2035, and while the new ERT falls short of this amount, 75%, it sets a floor on federal ambition, as it brings the sunshine state more in line with the ERT’s of NSW and the ACT.

To bridge the gap between regional Queensland and urban centres in the south, Steven Miles has focussed his announcement on job creation and assisting industries to transition away from heavily polluting products and to create growth in green manufacturing and renewable energy production.

As the climate warms, Queensland is home to the front-line communities who are most at risk from the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events, like bushfires, droughts, floods, heatwaves and cyclones.

While environmental groups see this announcement as a positive step in the right direction, they want it to be backed up with rapid action and future increases to the state’s ERT’s.

The following experts and members of local Queensland environment groups are available for interviews, otherwise, find their quotes below:

Dr Jennifer Rayner, Head of Advocacy for the Climate Council said “Queensland is stepping up its game to cut carbon pollution under new Premier Steven Miles. This is another welcome sign that Australia’s states are building on the momentum that’s well underway to cut harmful carbon pollution. This is the kind of race to the top on climate action we need.

“Queensland has so many opportunities to seize the benefits of renewable energy and clean industry, and we look forward to seeing how the Miles Government will back this target in with new policy that builds on the Energy and Jobs Plan.

“With Australia’s three biggest states now all having emissions reduction targets between 70 and 80 percent, this sets a clear bar for the Federal Government in stepping up action this decade and setting our next national target in the new year.”

Location: Canberra, ACT

ENVIRONMENT GROUPS

Dave Copeman – Director of Queensland Conservation Council said “Today’s announcement by the new Premier is a strong step forward for Queensland and a clear acknowledgment of the urgent need for greater climate action across the state.

“The commitment to 75% emissions reduction by 2035 will serve as an important catalyst for greater momentum and commitment to addressing climate change on a state level.

“Action on climate change is pivotal if we’re going to protect Queensland’s unique natural environment and way of life. Queenslanders are already seeing firsthand that more frequent and extreme weather events leave lasting damage for communities and drive up the cost of living.

“While we welcome and celebrate this positive move, setting a target is only the beginning. If we are to keep Queenslanders safe, we need growing momentum in the transition to low emissions. The state must now ratchet up its climate ambitions across the board, implementing comprehensive policies and initiatives to ensure we meet and beat this target.

“This is a pivotal moment for Queensland, and by working together, we can set an example for the rest of the nation in addressing climate change and the impact it’s already having on our communities.”

Location: Brisbane, QLD

Dr Lissa Schindler – Great Barrier Reef Campaign Manager for the Australian Marine Conservation Society said “New Queensland Premier Steven Miles has made a significant commitment to tackling climate change and protecting the Great Barrier Reef. This is a big step towards limiting warming to 1.5°C especially for a heavily industrial state such as Queensland.”

“We are already feeling the impacts of climate change and have seen the devastating impacts of warming waters in Florida, where whole reefs were wiped out. Climate change has been the driver of four mass bleaching events in the past seven years in the Great Barrier Reef, with concern for a fifth one during this El Nino period. El Ninos brings more marine heatwaves, putting corals under immense heat stress.”

“The Queensland Government must fast-track emission cuts this decade and keep working towards a higher emissions reduction target that is in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C – a critical temperature threshold for coral reefs.

“Climate change is the greatest threat to the Great Barrier Reef, and its very existence is at stake. The Reef is our greatest natural asset and supports a $6 billion tourism industry and 64,000 jobs.

“We urge the Queensland Liberal National Party to commit to bipartisan support for both the renewable energy and emissions reduction targets, to help protect Queensland’s exceptional coasts and oceans, support jobs that rely on healthy environments, and provide certainty for businesses and Queenslanders.

“This is the critical decade for the Great Barrier Reef. We need both major parties committing to strong climate action to protect our Reef and the thousands of regional jobs it supports.”

Location: Brisbane, QLD

The Australian Conservation Foundation’s climate and energy program manager Gavan McFadzean said: “This is a very good and timely announcement given the recent deadly Queensland bushfires and an expected brutal summer still to unfold.

“This target should be legislated to give business certainty and Queenslanders confidence.

“We call on Queensland’s opposition leader David Crisafulli to match this target to lock in a bipartisan approach and boost the LNP’s credibility on climate heading into an election year.

“The Albanese government is considering what its 2035 target will be. Queensland’s new target sets a floor for the federal target.

“Queensland’s spectacular natural environment and the lives of Queenslanders are under intense pressure from climate change, fuelled by burning coal and gas.

“New research by Ipsos shows 36% of Australians believe it’s likely that, within the next 25 years, they will be displaced from their home due to the effects of climate change.

“Queensland’s economy – reliant on resource extraction, nature-based tourism and agriculture – is highly vulnerable to climate change. Queensland is paying more than any other state for extreme weather.

“This 2035 target will help Queensland attract the capital and jobs that come with the clean energy transformation.”
Location: Melbourne, VIC

Rachel Lowry, Acting CEO of WWF-Australia said “Increasing temperatures will challenge Queensland’s way of life and threaten the existence of our amazing natural wonders like the Great Barrier Reef.

“But a strong emissions target will help protect our natural treasures and way of life, lower climate-related costs, and give a fighting chance to efforts to Regenerate Nature by 2030.

“It’s major progress for Queensland and a step towards helping Australia fulfill our legal obligations to hold warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius under the Paris Agreement and the World Heritage Convention.

“But 75% must be a floor, not a ceiling. It must be legislated, with a ratchet-up mechanism to increase it over this decade as new opportunities to decarbonise faster are unlocked.

“WWF is calling on all Queenslanders, and all sides of politics, to support this new 2035 target as a good starting point, and call for more ambition, to protect our way of life.

“The target is below what the climate science shows is necessary. Australia and all States and Territories should be aiming for 90% below 2005 by 2035 as the absolute minimum, and ideally net zero by 2035.

“This is achievable with our amazing sunshine and wind resources, creating clean jobs, supporting new clean industries, and protecting the places we love including the Great Barrier Reef,” Ms Lowry said.

ECONOMY

Dr Heidi Edmonds, Senior Project Manager for Queensland Projects for Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE) said “This commitment from Queensland Premier Steven Miles to a more ambitious emissions reduction target gives industry and investors the certainty they need to ensure the benefits of renewable energy to Queensland’s communities.

“Increased investment in renewable energy for industry and community in Queensland now is key to bringing online low cost renewables to repowering manufacturing and easing cost of living pressures. We congratulate the Premier on his leadership, investing in renewable energy industries will create jobs and grow Queensland’s economic opportunities in the green economy.

“It’s essential that this work happens with ongoing community input and shared understanding of overlapping land use needs. BZE encourages the Government to grow its support for diverse stakeholder engagement so that regional communities remain central to the vision for the renewable energy future. The land use planning work BZE is currently undertaking in Central Queensland can help accelerate this understanding.”
Location: Brisbane, QLD

INDUSTRY

Vincent Dwyer, co-founder and CEO of Energy Estate and Director of Central Queensland Power said “The announcement of the Premier is timely, coming quickly on the back of the conclusion of COP28 in Dubai and the commitment by more than 100 countries, amongst other things, to the tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030.”

“Importantly for Regional Queensland, these enhanced emissions reduction targets help to underpin investment certainty, supporting the growth of the renewable energy sector. That is good news across Queensland.”

“Building on the existing Energy and Jobs Plan, investors can now confidently focus on the long-term opportunities in the State, building the supply chain, underpinning local manufacturing and, importantly, providing an important basis for bringing through new, well paid jobs in the regions.”

“And in addition to the opportunities locally, the building of local skills, supply chains and infrastructure can also ensure the long-term export of renewable energy, through “green hydrogen” and its derivative products, to our key trading partners in the Indo-Pacific.” “Queensland can remain a key exporter of energy, attracting significant and ongoing investment into the State.”

Location: Gladstone, QLD

 

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East Africa’s floods decimate almost entire rainy season harvest leaving over four million people with no food or income

Oxfam Australia Media Release

As COP28 comes to a close, rich polluting nations must accelerate loss and damage compensation for countries hit hardest by climate change.

Six months after a historic five-season drought, massive floods have inundated vast swaths of farmland across Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia, right in the middle of the harvest season. Over four million impacted people in dire need of humanitarian assistance, warned Oxfam today.

The torrential rains which began in October, have killed hundreds of people, washed away thousands of homes and destroyed thousands of hectares of farmers’ crops in the three countries. Nearly two million people across the three countries have also been forced to flee their homes and farms.

In Somalia alone, the heavy Deyr (October-December) rains have killed over 100 people and devastated one-fifth of the harvest in South Central Somalia including 1,400 metric tonnes of sorghum in Juba and Shabelle have wilted. It is expected that 1.5 million hectares of farmland in Somalia will be adversely affected by the floods.

“The worsening climate crisis is a harsh reality for those already suffering hunger and destitution in East Africa. Today, millions of people are pummelled by consecutive weather extremes they are hardly responsible for, with absolutely nothing to shield them or help them rebuild their lives.” said Oxfam in Africa Director Fati N’zi-Hassane.

Adan Hassan, a farmer from Bardhere, one of the worst affected regions in Somalia told Oxfam:

“We have lost all our crops. All the tomatoes, watermelons, beans, and carrots that we would have harvested within months were all swept away. More than 80% of the bananas, lemons, and sorghum have also been destroyed. We had just started recovering and the rains have taken everything we have built in the past few months.”

In neighbouring Kenya, the unrelenting floods have displaced over 500,000 people after washing away thousands of their homes, devastating over 21,000 acres of their farmland, and killing 13,500 of their livestock.

Similarly, in Ethiopia’s Somali region, hundreds of thousands have been displaced. The destruction of several roads has hampered transportation and caused prices of food and basic commodities to soar.

Even before this flooding, consecutive and prolonged droughts and ongoing conflict have already caused severe food shortages and massive loss of livestock, leaving 27.4 million people across the three countries in crisis or worse levels of hunger.

“The scale and frequency of climate destruction in East Africa paints a stark picture of the abhorrent climate injustice against disadvantaged countries and communities facing climate extremes,” said Oxfam in Africa Director Fati N’zi-Hassane.

“At this year’s COP28, rich polluting nations – largely responsible for the climate crisis – must honour their obligation to provide climate finance for adaptation and loss and damage, so that East African countries can free up resources to support impacted communities adapt, recover and rebuild their lives,” added N’zi-Hassane.

 

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Blending the school curriculum to create eco warriors

University of South Australia Media Release

They’re among our youngest citizens, but when children learn about sustainability in their own backyard, they’re more likely to protect the environment, say University of South Australia researchers.

In a citizen science project, UniSA researchers found that when students investigate local sustainability issues, they engage deeply with learning and develop meaningful connections to the environment.

It’s a vital skill for the next generation, particularly as the world deals with the negative impacts of climate change, waste, and scarcity of resources.

Now, a new research project, ‘Being Heard: Remixing Critical Literacy for Active Citizenship’, is introducing Year 5 and 6 students to a variety of climate issues through the Climate Ready Schools initiative.

Conducted at Burton Primary School, the transdisciplinary nature of the project enabled teachers to embed core competencies from the school curriculum, ensuring students achieved required academic outcomes while concurrently developing skills as an environmentally and socially responsible citizen.

UniSA researchers and Burton Primary School teachers, Bernadette Haggerty and Michelle Miller, say connecting students with local issues is key to building students’ motivation and learning.

“By working on projects that are close to the students – both physically and emotionally – they’re better able to grasp what the issues are and develop solutions,” Haggerty says.

“The breadth of projects was amazing – we had students working on beeswax lunch wraps to replace single use plastic, no waste cooking classes to stop food landfill, climate change mitigation by expanding local tree canopy, and even a machine to help plants and animals survive in the desert.

“Learning about climate change is important for everyone. When we explore sustainability issues in a school setting, we engage the young brain to investigate and find solutions to bigger problems.

“Students are scaffolded to understand the origins of some of our major disasters like ocean pollution, food waste, plastic pollution. The realisation that pollution starts in their own community, inspires them to take action at the grass roots – at home and the school community.”

The Burton Primary School project is part of a literacy initiative from UniSA’s Associate Professor Joel Windle, Dr Melanie Baak and Dr David Caldwell, with the Primary Education Teaching Association Australia.

“Our project encourages student voice and active citizenship. But by tapping into literacy skills from the English curriculum, students concurrently learn multiple skills,” Miller says.

“It’s all part of creating a transdisciplinary unit of work that enables students to develop knowledge from multiple perspectives. For example, using maths to construct maps, biology to understand the relationship between plants and animals, technology to design solutions, art for sketching, and English for reporting.

“In this project, students communicated their ideas using literacy skills such as slam poetry, podcasts and YouTube clips. By experimenting with news media, poetry, and film, they learnt different language techniques, skills, and communication approaches.

“At the same time, they learn how to communicate powerful messages to reduce their ecological footprint, and how to present positive messages to the community.

“Students have learnt to notice nature, investigate the science, and engineer solutions. They know they can make changes to the world through positive action.”

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New CSIRO-Pacific Partnership to tackle region’s environmental challenges

CSIRO News Release

A new scientific cooperation agreement for the Pacific will boost climate change risk and adaptation management, environmental protection and sustainable development for current and future generations across the region.

The five-year Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed at COP28 in Dubai by the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Program (SPREP) and CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency.

The agreement builds on a partnership, established in 2016, which has yielded programs like the Vanuatu Climate Futures Portal, recently launched in Port Vila. The Portal is providing climate information, projections and decision-support tools in easy-to-understand formats to help adaptation and decision-making across agricultural, infrastructure, fisheries, tourism and water sectors.

The partnership emphasises co-design and co-delivery of Pacific research programs across SPREP’s core business of climate change resilience; island and ocean ecosystems; environmental monitoring; governance and waste management and pollution control.

The jointly designed and delivered programs will support evidence-based science for risk management and broader decision-making for Pacific countries across environmental science domains, including:

  • Climate change science and services;
  • Integrated climate impact, vulnerability and risk assessments;
  • fisheries and marine coastal resources and ecosystems; and
  • Ocean scale physical systems monitoring, modelling and assessment.

The MOU also encompasses:

  • Food systems modelling, analysis and assessment planning;
  • Plastics and other waste modelling, assessment and management;
  • Water security assessments and modelling; and
  • Energy transition modelling, assessment and planning.

SPREP Director General, Mr Sefanaia Nawadra, said SPREP was honoured to continue their partnership with CSIRO.

“Our partnership with CSIRO has yielded country-focussed climate change science research and information which is already being used by our operational agencies,” SPREP Director General, Mr Nawadra said.

“SPREP brings a convening capacity to enable the translation of science into tangible actions. We are very excited to continue this collaboration, which will undoubtedly yield more benefits in policy and steps taken to address climate change.”

CSIRO’s Director of the Climate Science Centre, Dr Jaci Brown, said the agreement allows both parties to build on the synergies, successes and lessons learnt to date — applying them to a broader range of environmental issues across the region while drawing on a broader scope of technical capability from across CSIRO.

“The co-design approach developed in our work to date has produced something quite special: up-to-date climate information, projections and tools provided in formats relevant to those who need it most – those planners, decision-makers and communities already grappling with the challenges of climate change and planning for their futures,” Dr Brown said.

“The risks associated with climate change are a reality across the Pacific region. Climate change is also exacerbating food security, biodiversity, energy systems and waste management challenges. We want to continue to build on the knowledge sharing between CSIRO scientists and Pacific islanders to tackle a broader range of issues faced across the region.”

The 28th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC COP28) is being held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from 30 November to 12 December 2023.

Top photo: The five-year MoU was signed by SPREP Director General, Sefanaia Nawadra, Australian Assistant Minister for Climate Change and Energy Jenny McAllister, and CSIRO Climate Science Centre lead Jaci Brown (left to right)

 

About SPREP

The Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) is the lead regional organisation for the protection and sustainable development of Pacific island environments.

With headquarters in Apia, Samoa, SPREP works closely with its 26 Member countries and territories – along with partners, donors and local communities – to deliver on environmental management and sustainable development in the region in four priority areas: Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Waste Management and Pollution Control, Climate Change Resilience and Environmental Monitoring and Governance.

About CSIRO

CSIRO is Australia’s national science agency and innovation catalyst. We solve the greatest challenges through innovative science and technology. Our collaborative research turns science into solutions for food security and quality; clean energy and resources; health and wellbeing; resilient and valuable environments; innovative industries; and a secure Australia and region.

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Carbon emissions at a record high, new report finds

CSIRO News Release

Total fossil carbon dioxide emissions are projected to be at a record high of 36.8 billion tonnes in 2023, as outlined in the annual Global Carbon Budget released at the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP28) in Dubai.

While many countries are succeeding in reducing or slowing carbon dioxide emissions, recent progress is not fast enough or widespread enough to put global emissions on a downward trajectory towards net zero, the international report found.

Dr Pep Canadell, Executive Director of the Global Carbon Project and a Chief Research Scientist at Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, is an author of the Global Carbon Budget.

He said the annual analysis indicated that if current global carbon dioxide emission levels persist, there was a one-in-two chance the Earth’s climate system would reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in about seven years.

The Paris Agreement commits to pursuing efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

“The latest Global Carbon Budget shows progress in an increasing number of countries but faster, larger, and sustained efforts are needed to avoid significant negative impacts of climate change on human health, the economy, and the environment,” Dr Canadell said.

“If the temperature targets of the Paris Agreement are crossed, the global effort to reach net zero emissions will require a massive, and perhaps unachievable, scale-up of deliberate carbon dioxide removal to bring down global temperatures.”

Global emissions from fossil fuel use are projected to rise 1.1 per cent in 2023, reaching 36.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Emissions from all fossil sources (coal, oil, gas) are projected to increase, with the highest growth from oil, projected to rise 1.5 per cent. The growth in oil emissions is largely due to resumption of ground transport and aviation following the shutdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Coal emissions, which represent 41 per cent of global emissions, are projected to increase 1.1 per cent.

Emissions from permanent forest loss through deforestation remain too high to be offset by current CO₂ removals from reforestation or afforestation.

What’s new in the 2023 Global Carbon Budget?

  • The extreme fire season in the northern hemisphere has led to carbon dioxide emissions from wildfires being presented in the budget for the first time. The extreme fire season in the northern hemisphere, particularly fires in Canada, counteracted an observed decline in emissions from fires in tropical regions and drove carbon dioxide emissions higher than the global average since satellite records began in 2003. Global emissions from fires for January-October 2023 were 10-28 per cent above the 2003-2022 average.
  • The 2023-24 El Niño event will further increase carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. An El Niño event brings hotter, drier weather. The Global Carbon Project anticipates that El Niño event will mean terrestrial natural carbon sinks are less effective in taking up of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and leading to higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and warming. Hotter and drier conditions in most of the tropics lead to a decline in their carbon sink strength. The ocean sink usually increases during El Niño years but does not completely offset the decline in the land sinks.
  • Carbon dioxide removal, while small, is accounted for the first time in the budget. Carbon dioxide removal is where deliberate, human activity takes carbon out of the atmosphere. The budget says carbon dioxide removal from afforestation and reforestation accounted for 1.9 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, equivalent to about 5% of fossil emissions. Carbon removal not based on vegetation (industrial removal and the use of certain minerals) was responsible for offsetting only several thousand tonnes in 2023.

What is the Global Carbon Budget?

The Global Carbon Budget provides detailed information about the natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks of carbon dioxide worldwide and is produced through peer-reviewed scientific papers.

 

Annual fossil CO2 emissions – global

 

The Global Carbon Budget was first produced in 2006 to establish a common and mutually agreed knowledge base on greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It is an international research project within the Future Earth research initiative on global sustainability and a research partner of the World Climate Research Programme.

The Global Carbon Budget has contributed to the first Global Stocktake to be released at COP28.

The analysis is also an important input to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which reports on climate change caused by human activities.

Key concepts in the Global Carbon Budget

Carbon dioxide is the most significant greenhouse gas contributing to human-induced global warming, followed by methane and nitrous oxide.

Anthropogenic or human-induced carbon dioxide emissions are carbon dioxide emissions created or exacerbated as a result of human activity. For example, burning fossil fuels emits carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, while deforestation removes trees that would absorb carbon dioxide.

Global carbon cycle: The natural geological, biological and physical process in the Earth that has occurred for millions of years, where carbon naturally flows in and out of the land, ocean, and atmosphere; now altered by human activities.

Net zero emissions: Human society will have reached net zero emissions when any carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere is balanced by an equivalent amount being removed. It is a condition to stop global warming.

Net-Negative emissions: After net zero is reached, more greenhouse gases are removed than added to the atmosphere globally, which would allow humanity to cool the planet and begin restoring the atmosphere.

Fossil CO₂ emissions are created through burning and use of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. Carbon dioxide emissions from cement production are also included in this category.

Net CO₂ emissions from land-use change refers to emissions from land-use, land-use change and forestry, such as deforestation, minus the carbon dioxide removals from e.g., re/afforestation, and forest management.

Total CO₂ emissions combine fossil carbon dioxide emissions and land-use change emissions.

The crossover, also called the overshoot, refers to missing a given temperature target, such as the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target.

Natural carbon sinks: The land and ocean take up anthropogenic carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere, called carbon dioxide sinks. The land and ocean take up around half of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere as a result of human activity.

Carbon dioxide removal is where historic and ongoing contributions of carbon dioxide are actively removed from the atmosphere.

Afforestation: Planting trees where there previously haven’t been trees or forests.

Reforestation: Replanting trees and forests that have previously been removed.

View the full report and media release from the Global Carbon Project.

 

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Rapid decarbonisation can steer Australia to Net Zero before 2050

CSIRO News Release

A new report by CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, shows existing technologies will enable Australia to halve emissions by 2030 from 2020 levels, under a rapid decarbonisation scenario led by a renewable electricity sector.

The report, Pathways to Net Zero Emissions – An Australian Perspective on Rapid Decarbonisation, emphasises that an accelerated transition is needed across the economy if we are to meet the goal of net zero before 2050 and limit global warming to 1.5°C. CSIRO’s Rapid Decarbonisation scenario projects key milestones in 10-year timesteps that would set Australia on a path to net zero by 2050.

Using existing technologies, Australia can reduce emissions by 52 per cent from 2020 levels by 2030. Beyond that, however, technologies currently in early development would need to be in widespread commercial use into the 2030s and 2040s, particularly to address hard-to-abate sectors.

The investment costs will be substantial, and the role of the finance sector will be critical.

CSIRO’s Executive Director – Environment, Energy and Resources Dr Peter Mayfield said there were immense opportunities for Australia to grow new and existing industries and provide essential innovation to decarbonise the world.

“Pressure is mounting for business to speed up its efforts towards net zero and lead the way for the rest of the country. How to move faster to deliver a cleaner, sustainable and strong economy is the question on every business leader’s mind,” he said.

“This work will help business find a rapid and achievable pathway to net zero appropriate to their sector – guiding investment to mitigate climate change, reinventing industries of old, and creating new jobs in emerging industries.”

CSIRO researchers applied to an Australian context the International Energy Agency’s global analysis of the technology, energy and investment needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

It’s the first time that IEA’s detailed international modelling has been coupled with CSIRO’s detailed knowledge of Australian industry to inform decarbonisation projections of the economy in this way.

Modelling focused on the high emissions sectors of the economy to develop transition pathways across energy, transport, building and heavy industry, including steel, cement and aluminium; alongside agriculture, the largest energy emitters in the economy.

The report’s Rapid Decarbonisation scenario projects the national effort will be led by a renewable electricity sector:

  • Renewable sources would need to triple by 2030 to reach 90 per cent of the electricity generation mix. To achieve this, almost all new capacity installed in the next decade would need to come from wind, solar and hydropower supported by increased storage capacity.
  • Rapid electricity sector decarbonisation is projected to drive down emissions from energy use in housing and commercial buildings, followed by electrification in mining, and later in transport. This highlights the need for more renewable electricity sooner.
  • By 2040, 73% of cars and light commercial vehicles on the road are electric powered. Decarbonisation of long distance and heavy transport accelerates through 2030-2040.

To lag behind international decarbonisation would be a competitive disadvantage for Australia as other nations increasingly adopt low emissions technologies and trade barriers towards high emitting nations.

Funded by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the report will support evidence-based decision making for CBA, its clients and the banking and business sectors more broadly.

Download the Pathways to Net Zero Emissions – An Australian Perspective on Rapid Decarbonisation report.

See fact sheets below for a sector-by-sector summary of report findings.

 

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Sustainability-linked loan to deliver benefits to Indigenous communities

La Trobe University Media Release

In an innovative application of sustainable finance, La Trobe University has committed to reinvesting savings earned by achieving targets set in the University’s inaugural $195m Sustainability-Linked Loan (SLL) into its Indigenous Accommodation Scholarship Fund and other Indigenous welfare matters.

La Trobe has become one of the first universities in Australia to establish a SLL, with Bendigo Bank and National Australia Bank (NAB), as part of refinancing existing bank facilities.

La Trobe’s Chief Financial Officer, Jodie Banfield, said the inaugural SLL was an important step in La Trobe’s social and environmental journey, while also strengthening the University’s commitment to supporting its Indigenous communities.

“La Trobe’s inaugural Sustainability-Linked Loan demonstrates our deep commitment to both social and environmental sustainability and to our Indigenous students, staff and communities,” Jodie Banfield said.

La Trobe’s Indigenous Accommodation Scholarship Fund helps provide for Indigenous students to meet living expenses while studying.

SLLs incentivise sustainability performance through tying financing costs to performance against pre-agreed social and environmental Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). La Trobe’s KPIs include:

  • Emissions reduction, renewable generation and carbon neutrality initiatives;
  • Sustainable transport initiatives involving the conversion of vehicle fleet to electric vehicles;
  • Green Building Council of Australia’s Green Star Communities certification including employment, water and waste initiatives; and
  • Gender equity initiatives involving improving gender equity, diversity and inclusion in Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics and Medicine (STEMM) research and higher education. La Trobe is undertaking significant investment towards the Science in Australia Gender Equality (SAGE) Silver Accreditation, which is based on the internationally recognised Athena Swan charter and framework (an impact focussed accreditation program).

NAB acted as Sustainability Coordinator on both the La Trobe University inaugural Green Bond issuance (July 2023) and this SLL transaction, which aligns to the Asia-Pacific Loan Market Association’s updated 2023 Sustainability-Linked Loan Principles, as confirmed by a Second Party Opinion (SPO) from DNV (Green Bond and SLL).

Cathryn Carver, NAB Executive, Client Coverage, said, “NAB is delighted to strengthen our partnership with La Trobe and support the University’s expanding sustainable finance facilities and ESG ambitions. It’s wonderful to see the University maximising the value of its 5-year $195m Sustainability-Linked Loan by rethinking how they can spend the earned savings to create an even greater social impact.”

Sam Miller, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank’s Head of Investor Relations and ESG said, “This Sustainability-Linked loan aligns to Bendigo Bank’s goal to drive action towards a resilient and sustainable future to grow the prosperity of our customers, communities, shareholders and our people.”

Read more about La Trobe University’s commitment to environmental sustainability. You can also read more about La Trobe’s commitment to sustainable finance in the University’s Sustainable Finance Framework.

Read more about La Trobe University’s Indigenous Strategy.

 

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Extreme weather is leading to more injury hospitalisations, with heat being the main cause

Australian Institue of Health and Welfare Media Release

The number of hospital admissions for injuries associated with extreme weather – such as heatwaves, bushfires and storms – has increased over the past decade, according to a new report by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

The report, Let’s talk about the weather: injuries related to extreme weather, shows that in the 10 years from 2012 to 2022, extreme heat was responsible for most weather-related injuries and that bushfire-related injuries increased during El Niño years.

Extreme weather-related hospitalisations spiked at over 1,000 cases every 3 years, with the spikes becoming progressively higher. There were 1,027 injury hospitalisations in 2013–14, 1,033 in 2016–17 and 1,108 in 2019–20. In each of these 3 years, extreme heat had the biggest impact on hospitalisations and deaths. Extreme heat accounted for 7,104 injury hospitalisations and 293 deaths in the 10-year period analysed.

‘Evidence has shown that over the past 3 decades, there has been an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as extreme heat, bushfires, extreme cold, rain and storm-related events (including high rainfall, floods and cyclones). We are seeing this reflected in hospitalisations and deaths,’ said AIHW spokesperson Dr Heather Swanston (PhD).

‘In the 10 years from 2012 to 2022, there were 9,119 hospitalisations for injury in Australia directly attributeable to extreme weather. Over a similar period, from 2011 to 2021, there were 677 deaths due to extreme weather-related injury.’

With the exception of Tasmania, exposure to excessive natural heat was the most common cause leading to injury hospitalisation for all states and territories. From 2019 to 2022, there were 2,143 hospital admissions related to extreme heat, including 717 patients from Queensland, 410 from Victoria, 348 from NSW, 266 from South Australia, 267 from Western Australia, 73 from the Northern Territory, 23 from the ACT and 19 from Tasmania. The report also includes state and territory data on hospitalisations related to extreme cold, bushfires and storms.

During the 10-year period analysed, there were 773 injury hospitalisations and 242 deaths related to extreme cold. Extreme rain or storms accounted for 348 injury hospitalisations and 77 deaths. The number of injuries related to bushfires was higher in El Niño years.

The data doesn’t include injuries where patients were treated in hospital emergency departments and didn’t require admission to the hospital.

This report includes injuries that were directly attributable to weather-related events but does not include injuries that were indirectly related. For example, it doesn’t include injuries from road traffic accidents that occur due to wet weather since the primary cause of injury would be recorded as ‘transport’.

Hospital admissions for injuries associated with extreme weather make up a small proportion of all hospitalised injuries, but these data provide a starting point for counting extreme weather-related injuries.

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared an El Niño is underway and is likely to continue until at least the end of February 2024, which in Australia includes a period of reduced rainfall, higher temperatures and increased bushfire danger.

The report suggests opportunities to develop weather-related injury surveillance systems.

 

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Critically Endangered Reptile Gets Colossal Helping Hand

Media Release

USA breakthrough genetic engineering and de-extinction company Colossal Biosciences is lending its support to the recovery of the recently rediscovered Victorian Grassland Earless Dragon. An interim insurance and conservation breeding program is being established at Melbourne Zoo for the Victorian Grassland Earless Dragon (Tympanocryptis pinguicolla), a critically endangered reptile many considered likely extinct, and not seen since 1969 until a chance rediscovery earlier this year.

This project forms part of a partnership development between Colossal and Zoos Victoria to fight extinction for a range of species, and includes initial funding for the fit out of interim quarantine housing and care for the dragons, and in collaboration with other partners such as Museums Victoria Research Institute sequencing the genome of the “lost” dragons and mapping the genetic relatedness of individuals to inform conservation breeding.

Led by Colossal’s Chief Animal Officer, Matt James, and Zoos Victoria’s General Manager of Threatened Species, Garry Peterson, the partnership aims to support the broader recovery work by the Victorian Grassland Earless Dragon Recovery Team, comprising expertise from the Australian Government’s Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Victorian Government’s Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action, Museums Victoria Research Institute, Wildlife Profiles Pty Ltd and Zoos Victoria. The team is working on conserving and growing the dragon’s remaining population and protecting and restoring other areas of its wild habitat ahead of future reintroductions.

Colossal CEO and co-founder Ben Lamm said saving critically endangered species is at the core of their mission.

“Our focus includes the de-extinction of select lost species, the preservation of endangered species, and the restoration of ecosystems and biodiversity,” Mr Lamm said. “We are really excited about helping to establish the means to create an insurance and conservation breeding program, for the once-feared lost earless dragon.

Zoos Victoria CEO Dr Jenny Gray said Zoos Victoria is committed to supporting this iconic species and securing its long-term future.

“Our partnership with Colossal has great potential to explore and apply more novel genetic techniques for a range of species in need. It’s a great example of how different organizations can collaborate to address the urgent need for species preservation and ecosystem restoration.”

About Zoos Victoria

Zoos Victoria is a zoo-based conservation organisation, dedicated to fighting wildlife extinction. Our four zoos are Healesville Sanctuary, Kyabram Fauna Park, Melbourne Zoo and Werribee Open Range Zoo. Each zoo provides a unique and immersive experience that attracts visitors from around the world. Our zoos inspire future conservationists of all ages. By strengthening the connection between people and wildlife, we hope to protect the future of animals and their homes. Our important work includes breeding and recovery programs; we’ve built partnerships with local communities, fellow conservationists, and like-minded organisations – close to home and in far-flung corners of the world.

About Colossal

Colossal was founded by emerging technology and software entrepreneur Ben Lamm and world-renowned geneticist and serial biotech entrepreneur George Church, Ph.D., and is the first to apply CRISPR technology for the purposes of species de-extinction. Colossal creates innovative technologies for species restoration, critically endangered species protection and the repopulation of critical ecosystems that support the continuation of life on Earth. Colossal is accepting humanity’s duty to restore Earth to a healthier state, while also solving for the future economies and biological necessities of the human condition through cutting-edge science and technologies.

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River Country community day explores Australia’s remarkable river and wetland communities

Media Release

Living on the Edge project launches at the National Museum of Australia with a vibrant community day

Experience a stimulating array of art, performance, story-telling and conversations exploring Australia’s remarkable river and wetland communities at the River Country Community Day on Sunday 15 October at the National Museum of Australia in Canberra.

The River Country Community Day will be a free event exploring the Murray–Darling’s unique river and wetland communities, why these places matter and how we can act to protect and regenerate them. The day will feature thought-provoking talks, inspirational walks, performances and creative activities suited to all ages.

The day will also act as the official launch of Living on the Edge: Caring for Australia’s Threatened Places – a multi-year project sharing the stories of eight ecological communities from across Australia, each a vibrant but also deeply threatened network of land, water, plants, animals and people.

The project will ask how Australians can come together to better appreciate and care for these precious places at a time of devastating environmental decline.

Dr Mathew Trinca, Director of the National Museum of Australia said the Museum is thrilled to be highlighting some of Australia’s most stunning waterways.

“The Museum is looking forward to celebrating Australia’s distinct and beautiful river communities during the day of festivities. We have been working with diverse communities to create a day of lively performances, thought-provoking conversations and hands-on activities for the whole family,” said Dr Trinca.

The National Museum’s James O Fairfax Senior Fellow in Culture and Environment, Dr Kirsten Wehner, said that the Museum is delighted to be partnering with the Sydney Environment Institute on the Living on the Edge project and the River Country Community Day.

River Country Community Day is a wonderful opportunity for people to explore and celebrate all the different ways that our lives are intertwined with the beautiful and threatened Murray–Darling rivers and wetlands.

 

Barkindji custodian David Doyle smokes the Barka (Darling River)
during the Pangala: Returning Home performance, Menindee,
NSW, June 2023.
Image © Jaqueline Cooper, National Museum of Australia

 

We often hear how the Murray–Darling system enables Australia’s agriculture, energy production and other industries. But it is also about river flows, shaded banks and wetlands, places that are home to hundreds of unique plants and animals and that are important culturally, socially and spiritually to the people who live with them.

Living on the Edge and the River Country Community Day bring people together to share how these places matter to them and why we need to make sure they flourish into the future. We all have a river story to share,” Dr Wehner said.

Living on the Edge is developed by the National Museum of Australia, through the James O Fairfax Senior Fellow in Culture and Environment Program, and the Sydney Environment Institute at the University of Sydney.

Bringing together the Institute and the Museum, with the support of the James Fairfax Foundation, combines scholarly research and public engagement to create a new kind of conversation about what it means for so many of our Australian plants and animals to be on the edge of extinction.

Associate Professor Thom Van Dooren, Deputy Director of the Sydney Environment Institute at the University of Sydney, said that Living on the Edge is an effort to foster a rich public dialogue about our growing biodiversity crisis.

“Through this partnership between the National Museum of Australia and the Sydney Environment Institute, we are working to gather stories from around the country about threatened species and places, what they mean to communities and why they matter so much. And then to share those stories with diverse audiences, from school children and families to scientists and policy makers, so that we might enrich and energise much-needed possibilities for change,” said Assoc Prof Van Dooren.

Visitors will have opportunities to learn about Molonglo Country while walking the Acton Peninsula, meet First Nations custodians protecting the ancient Gwydir wetlands, or enjoy poetry performances in the Great Southern Land gallery.

The National Museum’s Gandel Atrium will be transformed by a specially commissioned River Country art installation created by Canberra artist SA Adair in collaboration with Kirsten Wehner and artists from across the Murray–Darling system. Visitors will be invited to grow this ‘wetland’ by contributing their own river stories, memories and hopes.

During the day, visitors will be able to hear from artists responding to the sounds of swamps, join a drawing workshop, create a cyanotype platypus world, enjoy music and dance performances or simply relax with a picnic and great lakeside views in the Museum’s Amphitheatre.

The day will conclude with the premiere screening of an important new film, More than a Fish Kill, followed by a provocative Q&A session. This documentary explores how a collective of artists, fishery managers and First Nations custodians helped their communities respond to the devastating Menindee fish kills along the Baaka (Darling River), encouraging ecological and cultural renewal.

 

Silver perch await release into the Barka (Darling River) during
the Pangala: Returning Home performance, Menindee, NSW, June
2023
Image © Jaqueline Cooper, National Museum of Australia.

 

The Museum’s Tim and Gina Fairfax Discovery Centre, an immersive play and learn space for children of all abilities from birth to 6 years will also be free for the day, offering stories and activities for young children.

Living on the Edge brings together cultural researchers, writers, curators, traditional custodians and artists, as well as policymakers, scientists and community conservationists, to share knowledge and explore ideas about how to understand, protect and regenerate threatened ecological communities. The multi-year project will produce an online exhibition, events, creative commissions and education resources.

The event will be held across the Museum site on Sunday 15 October 2023 from 11am – 4:30pm.

 

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Crash and Burn

This is both optimistic and troubling.

Fairfax media reports that “China has put the world’s oil cartel into a death spiral“.

On the one hand we need oil to die. Like, yesterday. Anyone who’s paying any attention to the state of the world’s climate must understand this by now. We’re not just talking about sea level rise and the possible loss of some beachfront property. Climate change isn’t just about bushfires and floods and cyclones, although all of these things are important and traumatic for the people who live through them, the insurance companies that end up paying for them, and everyone else when the insurance companies stop covering them. More important than all of this is the loss of biodiversity, the loss of a predictable climate, the loss of regular seasons and thus the loss of a large proportion of our global food supply. Not to mention the collapse of the logistics channels that takes that rice, should we happen to be successful in growing it, from its paddies in Indonesia to the kitchen table in Melbourne. Climate change isn’t just going to make life uncomfortable for us all. Unchecked, it will lead to the deaths of a large percentage of the current eight billion humans on the planet.

The burning of fossil fuels is the primary contributor to the imbalance in the planet’s energy equation. It just is. If you’re going to comment that the climate has always changed or that humans are inconsequential or something something sunspots, please go elsewhere. This blog respects the science.

It follows that a big part of stopping climate change – if that’s still even possible – is the immediate and complete cessation of the burning of fossil fuels. So you would think that any news of a “death spiral” in oil extraction would be a good thing. But it’s not. Because oil is vital for a lot more than just turning into petrol (gas).

Obviously the biggest use of oil is turning it into petrol and other refined fuels. “We’re still reliant on fossil fuels for about 80 per cent of all of our total primary energy.” The world is working on reducing this. Too slowly, of course, but we’re building solar farms and hydroelectric generators and fleets of electric cars. And now, apparently, a burgeoning electric car industry in China is going to put OPEC and oil producers into a “death spiral”.

To understand this we need to understand the concept of EROEI.

Energy Returned on Energy Invested

"It takes energy to get energy, and the ratio of energy returned versus energy spent (energy return on investment, or EROI) has historically been extremely high for fossil fuels, as compared to previous energy sources." (resilience.org)

Or, to put it another way, it’s becoming harder, and thus more expensive, to pump a barrel of oil. For countries and companies whose existence relies on selling that oil for more than they spend to extract it, and in fact who require that excess to be continually growing, this means oil prices need to be kept high. Any forces that might reduce the demand for oil, and thus lower its price, run counter to that requirement. This is why we see OPEC (and, separately, both Russia and Saudi Arabia) deliberately reducing their oil output to force the price to remain higher.

"US industry executives are now openly acknowledging that US oil production is likely to peak within the next five or six years, or perhaps in 2030. But there is mounting evidence that the peak will come much earlier, with some industry observers pinpointing its arrival as early as within the next one or two years." (resilience.org )

OPEC and the oil-producing nations need oil to be expensive if they’re going to continue to make profit on extracting and refining it. Expensive oil means people look for alternatives. For a time, those alternatives included fracking in the US, but that bolster to oil supply is drying up.

Many observers of the past 15 years of fracking frenzy have pointed out that the industry’s ability to increase levels of oil production has depended on low interest rates, which enabled companies to produce oil now and pay the bills later. Now central banks are raising interest rates in an effort to fight inflation, which is largely the result of higher oil and gas prices. But hiking interest rates will only discourage oil companies from drilling. This could potentially trigger a self-reinforcing feedback loop of crashing production, soaring energy prices, higher interest rates, and debt defaults, which would likely cease only with a major economic crash. ” (resilience.org)

As the demand for oil goes down the price to generate a barrel of oil goes up, due to peak oil and the exhaustion of good/easy sources. Decreasing demand and increasing price can only lead to the collapse of the market. As oil prices rise, the profitability of renewable alternatives continues to improve. This will only hasten the transition to solar power and renewables across all of society. As the cost of petrol inexorably increases, consumers will prefer to buy the ever-cheaper and ever improving electric cars. This will further reduce the demand for oil and require oil producers to lift the per-barrel cost even higher to preserve their profits.

"In the late 2020s, then, we will likely see oil demand begin to peak. This will be exacerbated by the fact that the global oil industry is going to become economically unsustainable by around 2030, when it will begin consuming a quarter of its own energy just to keep pumping out more oil." (resilience.org)

Sooner or later this system has to break.

What about everything else?

Because of a combination of greed and circumstances, we’ve brought ourselves to a situation where oil is no longer profitable to extract. But we still need it for things other than burning for electricity and for powering our vehicles.

"Major sectors like agriculture could see a steep decline, due to the scarcity of oil-based fertilizers and fuel. The ripple effect could continue to shipping, transportation, and even the food and manufacturing industries. In a worst-case scenario, large areas of the world could experience famine because of higher food prices." (investopedia.org)

We use oil and its derivatives to create building materials. Large scale fertilisers, herbicides and insecticides that support our industrialised food industry. Plastics, which are the foundation of modern society. Medicines. Soap. A larger proportion of our oil, coal and gas is used in energy generation and fuels, but our society as we know it can’t work without oil.

So. Oil is hard and expensive to extract and refine. The only reason we continue to do so is that the world demand for petrol is so high. But that demand is going to collapse. We have alternatives to fossil fuels for energy generation, and these alternatives are increasingly cheaper and better than oil.

What happens to our plastics industry, our medicines, our agriculture sector, our soap, when it’s no longer economically viable to pump oil? We don’t have alternatives for plastic.

We’re not prepared for this transition. Governments continue to support the fossil fuel industries as if they can never be allowed to collapse. But economic forces are going to overwhelm such efforts – probably soon.

There will still be a market for oil. Even when we’re not burning it for energy, we will continue to need it. It’s just going to cost an enormous amount more than it does now.

What it likely means is that the cost of everything will skyrocket. When our cheapest sources of oil include high-cost investments such as mining landfill to reclaim billions of plastic bags to convert them back into oil, plastic will no longer be cheap and ubiquitous. Food won’t be plentiful. Millions will starve – not because we can’t practically feed them, but because we won’t be able to afford the fertiliser.

The longer the burning of fossil fuels goes on, the worse the problem will become. The cost of extracting oil will continue to increase as accessible reserves decrease. When we stop burning oil, all that will be left in the oilfields will be the expensive dregs to extract for making our soap. The sensible approach now would be to encourage the death spiral as quickly as possible. Force the end of fossil fuels for power and preserve as much of our reserves for the rest of society to use. But governments are generally not in the business of forcing huge industries to collapse.

 

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Floating sea farms: an ingenious solution to feed the world and ensure freshwater by 2050

University of South Australia Media Release

The sun and the sea – both abundant and free – are being harnessed in a unique project to create vertical sea farms floating on the ocean that can produce fresh water for drinking and agriculture.

In what is believed to be a world first, University of South Australia researchers have designed a self-sustaining solar-driven system that evaporates seawater and recycles it into freshwater, growing crops without any human involvement.

It could help address looming global shortages of freshwater and food in the decades ahead, with the world’s population expected to reach 10 billion by 2050.

Professor Haolan Xu and Dr Gary Owens from UniSA’s Future Industries Institute have developed the vertical floating sea farm which is made up of two chambers: an upper layer similar to a glasshouse and a lower water harvest chamber.

“The system works much like a wicking bed that household gardeners might be familiar with,” Dr Owen says.

“However, in this case, clean water is supplied by an array of solar evaporators that soak up the seawater, trap the salts in the evaporator body and, under the sun’s rays, release clean water vapour into the air which is then condensed on water belts and transferred to the upper plant growth chamber.”

In a field test, the researchers grew three common vegetable crops – broccoli, lettuce, and pak choi – on seawater surfaces without maintenance or additional clean water irrigation.

The system, which is powered only by solar light, has several advantages over other solar sea farm designs currently being trialled, according to Professor Xu.

“Other designs have installed evaporators inside the growth chamber which takes up valuable space that could otherwise be used for plant growth. Also, these systems are prone to overheating and crop death,” Professor Xu says.

Floating farms, where traditional photovoltaic panels harvest electricity to power conventional desalination units, have also been proposed but these are energy intensive and costly to maintain.

“In our design, the vertical distribution of evaporator and growth chambers decreases the device’s overall footprint, maximising the area for food production. It is fully automated, low cost, and extremely easy to operate, using only solar energy and seawater to produce clean water and grow crops.”

Dr Owens says their design is only proof-of-concept at this stage, but the next step is to scale it up, using a small array of individual devices to increase plant production. Meeting larger food supply needs will mean increasing both the size and number of devices.

“It is not inconceivable that sometime in the future, you might see huge farm biodomes floating on the ocean, or multiple smaller devices deployed over a large sea area.”

Their existing prototype is likely to be modified to produce a greater biomass output, including using low-cost substrate materials such as waste rice straw fibre, to make the device even cheaper to run.

The researchers have shown that the recycled water produced in this way is pure enough to drink and has less salinity than the World Health Guidelines for drinking water.

The United Nations estimates that by 2050, approximately 2.4 billion people are likely to experience water shortages. In the same period, global supply of water for agricultural irrigation is expected to decline by around 19%.

“Freshwater accounts for just 2.5% of the world’s water and most of this is not accessible because it’s trapped in glaciers, ice caps or is deep underground,” Dr Owens says. “It’s not that freshwater is dwindling either, but the small amount that exists is in ever increasing demand due to population growth and climate change.

“The fact that 97.5% of the world’s water is in our oceans – and freely available – it is an obvious solution to harness the sea and sun to address growing global shortages of water, food, and agricultural land. Adopting this technology could improve the health and welfare of billions of people globally.”

The design experiment is published in the Chemical Engineering Journal.

 

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State logging agency VicForests deregistered

Victorian Forest Alliance Media Release

State owned logging company VicForests has been deregistered as a government business according to a government gazette, as of August 5 2023. Conservation groups understand this signals the first step to winding up the state owned business, but it’s unclear what the next steps are to abolish the agency in light of the state government’s plans to end native forest logging by the end of 2023.

“For years VicForests has been a total environmental and economic liability. It’s good news that the state government is taking the first step to wind up the rogue agency,” said Chris Schuringa, Campaign Coordinator for the Victorian Forest Alliance.

VicForests is responsible for two decades of mismanagement of forests, causing destruction of critical habitat for threatened wildlife, and important carbon stores. VicForests has received millions of dollars in subsidies and reported over $50 million in losses just in the last financial year.

“We now need assurance from the government that they will abolish VicForests, and scrap dodgy laws that lock in the pulping of forests, and remove the exemption from complying with federal environment laws. Forests won’t be safe while those laws are in place, even if VicForests is disbanded,” said Chris Schuringa.

“The Government needs to articulate a clear plan about what’s coming next and how these unique forests will be managed into the future.”

In June, lawyers from Environment Justice Australia filed an ACCC complaint on behalf of the Victorian Forest Alliance for false claims of environmental sustainability on VicForests’ website. The complaint alleges VicForests failed to regenerate forests after logging, make spurious claims regarding climate credentials, and falsely assert that they conduct adequate surveys for threatened and endangered species prior to logging, and protect natural values.

In August, following reports VicForests’ used public funds to spy on conservationists speaking out against logging, a damning IBAC investigation concluded that “VicForests conducted unlawful surveillance on several members of the public.” Court cases against the state company have shown VicForests have breached countless environment laws, and have failed to meet their legal obligations to survey for and protect endangered wildlife.

Despite the Victorian state government announcement in May to bring forward the end of native forest logging from 2030, to January 1 2024, logging in Western Victoria under ‘community forestry licences’ could continue beyond the proposed end date until June 2024.

(Ref: Inquiry into the 2023–24 Budget Estimates, p.14)

 

 

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Logging machines leave Newry State Forest prematurely after a month of community pressure

Bellingen Activist Newtwork Media Release

Logging has been stopped in Newry State Forest, with 6 logging machines leaving the forest this morning. Over half the native forest has been left untouched, signalling a huge win for the community.

Community members suspect that a month of community pressure, media and a recently lodged court case against Forestry Corp has all contributed to the machines leaving the forest early. This is a rare occurrence, with huge costs associated with FCNSW leaving a forest before the final dates.

Sandy Greenwood, Gumbaynggirr custodian, shares:

“This is a historic moment for us on Gumbaynggirr country. While indigenous culture is routinely destroyed, it’s rare to get a win along the way. Our grassroots community resistance has worked and we will continue to fight until all Gumbaynggirr lands are protected from Forestry’s operations. We are relieved that the forest will breathe quiet tonight and that my elders can walk back on our country.”

A court case against FCNSW has also been lodged, with an adjournment being sought in the NSW Land & Environment Court today. Al Oshlack, Researcher/Advocate with the Indigenous Justice Advocacy Network, who is the acting lawyer shares:

“Forestry have built an edifice based on fabrication and regulation which has allowed them to carry on forestry operations including alleged criminal and civil breaches of environmental, species and Aboriginal heritage legislation with impunity. This has resulted in a wholesale destruction of threatened animals which in some cases, to the point of extinction particularly Gliders and Koalas.”

“The Newry Court case in particular is highlighting the routine destruction of significant heritage whereas Forestry’s operation plan itself says that
there are no cultural heritage sites in the forest. In fact Newry has become forestry’s own Juukun Gorge. We are celebrating the machines leaving but are hoping to use the court case to get a more permanent outcome for Newry State Forest.”

The community is celebrating today and committed to following FCNSW to the next forest to take action and aim for the same outcome. Bellingen Activist Network is using non-violent direct action and community pressure to push for an end to native forest logging across NSW.

 

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