Oodgeroo a Seat to Watch for the Next 4–8 years
By Callen Sorensen Karklis
Almost a year ago I wrote an article about how bayside state areas like Oodgeroo and the federal seat of Bowman, which covers the Redlands City area and could flip towards 3rd options like the Teals or Greens. A lot can happen in the space of a year, yet alone 24 hours in politics! Since that article a TEAL in fact did become Mayor of Redlands in Jos Mitchell, winning a landslide victory against maverick controversial former LNP Bowman MP Andrew Laming on 67% – only securing 33% of the vote from preferences from his conservative aligned running mate Cindy Corrie. This was after I wrote that a TEAL could one day flip votes in Bowman or Oodgeroo. And Labor has begun tanking in the polls.
I still would argue that a third option from the major parties could still do well in seats like Oodgeroo or Bowman one day, long term. There is potential here. Three out of four local representatives are TEAL-like independents on the local Redland City Council. But short term the political reality is that it will be a tough run for a third wave candidate to knock off a candidate from the LNP who has held the seat since 2009, but it’s possible. But the odds are tough are present, though we’ll fight hard on the issues. It was a strong Labor seat for 20 years prior to his when Darryl Briskey (1989-2006) and Phil Weightman (2006–2009) were the MPs. It will be a gradual change to Oodgeroo, which will be a lot of hard work over the long term. It won’t change in the short term due to several factors: Infighting in the ALP has caught up with sitting Cr Tracey Huges who sided against Labor, joining with the LNP voting bloc against Mayor Mitchell on the controversial Birkdale White Water issue.
The sad reality is the ALP will sandbag seats they think they can retain into likely Opposition as polls suggest the LNP winning government on almost 60%. The LNP are likely to retain Oodgeroo, but this might not always be the case. Oodgeroo could one day become a seat that decides the fate of a balance of power in a future hung parliament. Both Teals and Greens have polled better here gradually. The Brisbane bayside always gets written off but its electoral seats and voters just may well decide the fate of a future Queensland’s state election. Not just in Oodgeroo but all bayside seats as I would argue there is no such thing as a safe seat anymore for any major party!
There is certainly potential for an alternative candidate in Oodgeroo, and I am giving it a go as the current Greens candidate in Oodgeroo in October. I believe despite the tough polling it will give voters a democratic alternative! We have a good team of local supporters letterboxing, organizing street signs, and much more.
The Toondah issue has put a lot of people off from voting Labor; if people vote for the Greens, we will ensure to revoke the PDA [Priority Development Application]. We support companies like Sealink proposing to build a simple port upgrade for the ferry and barge services without high rise units in the Ramsar wetlands. Federal Labor deserves some credit under Tanya Plibersek for ruling against the Walker Corporation proposal as Environment Minister to build 3600 units of 10 story buildings in the wetlands.
Some island locals are also upset about the lack of transparency on the Whale Center issue at Pt Lookout on North Stradbroke Island (Minjerribah). Many are also anxious of a post sandmining economy reliant on just eco–tourism after the Pandemic saw numbers reduced for a short time. There is also anxiety over the future of Treaty and Truth Telling in the aftermath of the voice referendum and closing the gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples as the LNP have walked away from Treaty talks. Island residents are concerned about water levels getting lower on the island as well as a lack of transparency on how Native Title is handled. But we can find this balance without the racist dog whistle baiting the LNP always lay bare!
And then there’s Amanda Stoker, a former QLD Senator (2018-2022) and Morrison Assistant Minister (2020-2022) who is one of the most right-wing conservatives to contest the area in living memory for the seat of Oodgeroo, making a political comeback. Stoker is contesting the seat after long term conservative Mark Robinson announced his retirement with only a short stint as Deputy Speaker during the Newman era (2012-2015).
Stoker has a track record of the following controversial policies:
- Opposing tobacco plain packaging; supporting the tobacco industry
- Supports the repeal of section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act
- Supports the nuclear energy industry in Australia
- Blames unions for the casualization of workplaces
- Opposes the minimum wage and penalty rates
- Opposes LGBTIQ rights
- Opposes Abortions
- Opposes voluntary euthanasia.
If Stoker gets in there is a fair chance she’ll become a senior state government minister or even a potential Attorney–General given she was the Assistant Attorney-General in the Morrison Government and her high profile on Sky News. But her controversial conservative right-wing policy stances may come to haunt her long term as the electorate wants moderate approaches. Especially as the aging demographic is replaced by younger generations reaching voting age and younger families moving into the area.
The Oodgeroo and Bowman areas have always had MPs regardless of their party colors who have been flexible enough to delegate sensitive constituent matters. If Stoker takes on a ministerial role this could isolate some in the community, especially if she’s in a government that slashes and cuts essential services (in the event Crisafulli hasn’t learnt from the Newman era (2012-2015) which became a deeply unpopular government after just one term in power.
If Stoker and Crisafulli don’t learn, and Labor don’t become more organized around their candidates a third option may become an inevitable choice in 2028 and 2032 either with the Greens or another candidate like Claire Richardson in the 2020 race. The local area hasn’t had a senior MP in a senior role since both Paul Clauson and John Goleby held roles in Joh Bjelke–Petersen’s National government as Redlands MPs during the 1980s and Con Sciacca in Bowman as in the Hawke/Keating Labor government in the 1980s–1990s. Locals are pretty used to having easy access to their MP and having that flexibility. An MP with ministerial gatekeepers might put many in the community offside.
There are also the issues of the current election:
- Cost of living crisis
- Housing and rental crisis
- The environment
- Public Transport
- Olympics 2032
- Crime and Youth Justice
- Health
Despite some of the good Labor is doing to mitigate the cost-of-living crisis; with 50 cent fares on public transport, the cheaper car registration, or energy bill supplements. It might not be enough to turn the tide as the LNP are polling well enough to win back the Treasury benches. The QLD Greens have a good chance to win back seats like McConnell Greenslopes, and Cooper, but the ALP is hemorrhaging in regional areas and the outer suburbs to the LNP. There is also a possibility of the KAP and PHON also doing well in regionally QLD as well. Where the LNP is capitalizing on the economy being weak under Labor. As the saying goes “It’s the economy stupid!”.
There is a good chance that Labor could also lose the seats of Redlands, Capalaba, and even Lytton if it’s not careful. Lytton lost its local Labor Cr in Sara Whitmee during the 2024 Brisbane City Council election. Labor lost a seat it held for 72 years on a 12.5% swing with Alex Givney (LNP) winning there giving an extra LNP seat to the Schrinner LNP BCC led administration. And Teal Independent Adelia Berridge lost her seat to an LNP-aligned candidate in 2024’s local council races where Labor has failed to win back the once strong area of Division 7 which Murray Elliott held for 23 years since losing it to the LNP since 2020.
The safe seat of Capalaba has been Labor for over 40 years except for Steve Davies (LNP) during the Newman era including Lytton during both the Newman and Joh eras, and when Bill Lamond (Country/National) secured the seat in 1974 for a term until 1977 and Neil Symes in the Newman era. Despite it being solidly Labor for 74 years, the working class vote usually swings towards populists that usually resonate with them even if it works against their own self-interest. Especially when they believe they’re not being listened to either! Case in point, Trumpism in the United States and Brexit in the UK. In Redlands it’s a bellwether seat and traditionally swings towards whatever party wins government on a strong swing apart from several instances of Labor in minority government during the early Beattie and Palaszczuk eras. The area that covers Redlands has been National/LNP for 29 years since 1969 and held by Labor for 26 years.
What’s clear is that voters locally are concerned about the mishandling of the Olympics in 2032 during a cost-of-living crisis. Similar to the Gabba and Raymond Park issues voters are concerned about the Birkdale White Water rafting facility proposed by the LNP bloc in Redland City Council on sensitive heritage listed land. Voters in my area are also concerned about having to pay for fees for car parking for patients and staff at Redlands Hospital causing congestion (which was originally FREE) as well as slow response times for ambulances. Voters are extremely concerned about the future direction of QLD Health no matter which party wins the QLD state election!
Youth Crime?
Another issue unfortunately that the LNP is capitalizing on is the youth crime and justice issue. The LNP are running strong on a policy for adult time for adult crimes similar to how the new NT CLP Finocchario government reducing the criminal age to 10 (which, unsurprisingly, has civil liberty, human rights, youth groups, and experts concerned). As most evidence indicates, the best way to reduce youth crime is prevention through programs investing in sports, arts, and music programs that interest young people and deal with the causes and not the symptoms of the issue. The LNP are running Paul Field as the LNP Capalaba candidate who lost his family to a hit and run incident from a repeat youth offender, where Don Brown MP said that the media was handling the issue as a “media beat up”. Was Don Brown insensitive on this topic? Or does he have a point? Statistical evidence points to youth crime not being as unusual as to what is has always been in recent decades, the issue is its more publicized in the media via the 24/7 news cycle and social media. The LNP does also run the risk of running a candidate passionate about a singular issue with little scope for wide issues that may affect Capalaba beyond the state election. If Field wins, it would be difficult to sustain electorally given Labor’s history here but its not impossible!
My Professional Advice to all Pollies
IF the LNP do win don’t get too comfortable; 24 hours is a long time and anything can change quickly! Despite Campbell Newman’s huge victory in 2012 I bet he didn’t think he’d only be there for one term with Labor being in power for nine years. Don’t take voters for mugs! After two election campaigns as a candidate now since 2020 and assisting on countless elections on all tiers since 2012 I’ve seen a thing or two. Voters want to be heard; they’re sick of people self-serving and not helping them with the issues that matter most to them! LESS RORTS MORE ACTION! Find long-term solutions to complex problems without just finding it as a cheap way to win votes in the short-term! There is no such thing as seats anymore!
Mathematically there are stats that back up the likelihood of better chances for major parties still but don’t take voters for granted; you can still lose your seat over time, even if you hold a “safe seat”. 3rd party options are on the rise! Accept loss and move on! Learn from it! It’s time for less sledging and more robust policy discussions. People hate how personal it has become; it makes most people in politics look like tools and wankers!
We need to be more genuinely honest and spin less or no disinformation. Social media has really made politics become the wild west which could harm the mental health of all of those involved regardless of their political beliefs or affiliations. As my Latvian pop always used to say: NO BULLSHIT! Or voters will punish you for it! In a 24/7 media cycle and more access to information it’s easier for voters to judge our pollies nowadays so be on notice at all times! You serve the public, not the opposite! Be open-minded and less partisan, hold your convictions but willing to be pragmatic. This is arguably why the public responded so well to former leaders like John Howard and Bob Hawke’s approaches to government – love them or hate them. And people like Don Chipp and Bob Brown cut through in the former Democrats “Keeping the Bastards Honest!” and the Greens carrying on the mantle as the third electoral force. In some ways Climate 200 advocating a similar mantra, but time will see if they all maintain this success and messaging. One thing is true though; despite your politics everybody wants more honest pollies and a system that works to provide for them a better tomorrow and planet.
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