Update at 8:00 am, 3 July 2016
At 8:00 am on 3 July, there are around nine Decider seats that are too close to call. As shown in my diagram below, the most likely outcome right now – based on votes counted to date, and including seats that are too close to call is:
- LNP with 74 seats (although Peter Dutton’s previously safe seat is now in doubt)
- Labor with 71 seats
- Minors/Independents – 5 seats (Katter, Wilkie, McGowan, Bandt and a Xenophoner)
No matter which way you cut and slice it, the LNP have been thrashed. They may hold onto government, but if they do, it will be by the skin of their teeth and/or in a minority government.
Seats in the Balance
There are around nine seats that are still too close to call – including one where there is literally five votes in it. In addition, Minister for saying “We’ve stopped the boats” – one PDuddy – has caused a previously safe LNP seat to be in doubt. Here’s the latest count details:
- Batman (Vic) – 70.6% of the vote is counted. Currently 51.5% to the ALP and 48.5% to the Greens.
- Capricornia (Qld) – 76.6% of the vote is counted. Currently 50.7% to the ALP and 49.3% to the LNP.
- Chisholm (Vic) – 67.7% of the vote counted. There is literally 5 votes difference in the count. Not 5%. Not 0.5%. Five votes. It’s 50%/50% between the ALP and the LNP.
- Cowan (WA) – 71.8% of the vote counted. Currently 50.1% to the ALP and 49.9% to the LNP.
- Forde (Qld) – 69.6% of the vote counted. Currently 50.7% to the ALP and 49.3% to the LNP.
- Gilmore (NSW) – 80.2% of the vote counted. Currently 50.2% to the LNP and 49.8% to the ALP.
- Hindmarsh (SA) – 74.5% of the vote counted. Currently 50.2% to the ALP and 49.8% to the LNP.
- Melbourne Ports (Vic) – 60.4% of the vote counted. There’s a three way race here between the ALP, the LNP and the Greens. The ALP in the lead in an ALP v LNP contest – but it’s unclear what the count is with the Greens.
- Petrie (Qld) – 71.5% of the vote counted. The LNP are ahead on this one with 51.9% of the vote so far.
According to the AEC, there will be no counting again now until next Tuesday – so no more news until then.
The Deciders rule
As I’ve written previously, while there were technically 150 seats up for grabs in the House of Representatives this election, the reality is that the vast majority of electorates are considered to be ‘safe’ seats – meaning they won’t be changing hands, because, well, they almost never do. This means that the outcome of yesterday’s election will actually be determined by just over a third of electorates – the Deciders. These are typically electorates which either have a high proportion of swinging voters in them (marginal seats and a few fairly safe seats) plus electorates where there is a well-known and well-liked Independent/Minor-party candidate running.
As a result, when you’re looking at the election outcome from last night, it’s really only the outcome in the Decider seats that matters. So I’ve created the following Balance of Power Meter to track how the election outcome is going based primarily on the results in the Decider seats – rather than all seats – as it’s a more accurate proxy of how both parties are tracking. (I am keeping an eye on the safe seats as well and adjust the chart if any of them decide to perform out of character. So far the LNP lost one – Wyatt Roy’s seat – and may possibly lose Peter Dutton’s seat.) I am continuing to update my Balance of Power Meter – so check back in (make sure you refresh the page) for regular updates on progress.
Decider seats
My list of 54 Decider seats shown below is based on the ABC’s Antony Green’s list of Key seats plus I have added:
- Cowper – Rob Oakeshott’s seat – as recent polls suggest he’s in within cooee of an upset in this seat; and
- Warringah – Tony Abbott’s seat – enough said.
I’ve included running totals for each group to show where they end up, which I will update as the night progresses.
a) Decider seats won by the LNP in 2013 – 32 seats
This includes: Banks (NSW): Bass (Tas); Bonner (Qld); Boothby (SA); Braddon (Tas); Brisbane (Qld); Burt (new seat in WA); Capricornia (Qld); Corangamite (Vic); Cowan (WA); Cowper (NSW); Deaken (Vic); Dunkley (Vic); Eden-Monaro (NSW); Forde (Qld); Gilmore (NSW); Herbert (Qld); Hindmarsh (SA); La Trobe (Vic); Lindsay (NSW); Lyons (Tas); Macarthur (NSW); Macquarie (NSW); Mayo (SA); Murray (Vic); New England (NSW); Page (NSW); Petrie (Qld); Reid (NSW); Robertson (NSW); Solomon (NT) and Tony Abbott’s seat – Warringah (NSW).
Outcome in 2016: Latest Number of 2013 LNP Decider Seats won by:
The LNP: 15
The ALP: 10
Other: 01
Unknown: 06
b) Decider seats won by the ALP in 2013 – 18 seats
This includes: Barton (NSW); Batman (Vic); Bendigo (Vic); Bruce (Vic); Chisholm (Vic); Dobell (NSW); Grayndler (NSW); Greenway (NSW); Lilley (Qld); Lingiari (NT); McEwen (Vic); Melbourne Ports (Vic); Moreton (Qld); Parramatta (NSW); Paterson (NSW); Perth (WA); Richmond (NSW); and Wills (Vic).
Outcome in 2016: Latest Number of 2013 ALP Decider Seats won by:
The LNP: 00
The ALP: 15
Other: 00
Unknown: 03
c) Decider seats won by minor parties and independent candidates in 2013 – 4 seats
This includes: Denison (won by independent candidate Andrew Wilkie in Tas); Fairfax (won by Clive Palmer of PUP fame in Qld); Indi (won by independent candidate Cathy McGowan); and Melbourne (won by Andrew Bandt from the Greens in Vic).
Outcome in 2016: Latest Number of 2013 ‘Other’ Decider Seats won by:
The LNP: 01 (from PUP)
The ALP: 00
Other: 03
Unknown: 00
Safe Seats
For a full list of all 150 seats up for election see the AEC’s list. Any seat that I haven’t listed above, is classed as a Safe Seat in my Balance of Power Meter (although the AEC may have classed some of them as ‘Fairly safe’).
Update: The LNP have lost a Safe Seat – Wyatt Roy’s seat – to the ALP. They may also lose Peter Dutton’s seat.
This article was first posted on ProgressiveConversation.
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This is awesome. Thanks Kate.
Antony Green hasn’t called the election yet. He’s usually done that by 6:01.
Leigh Sales is certainly showing her bias though isn’t she!!
Kate – thanks once again.
Have lost any respect (if I ever had any) for Leigh Sales.
Michael – thanks for tip about Antony Green – one very sharp political commentator.
Kate again thanks-I hope Leigh Sales loses her seat!
Updated with some highly Likely – will wait until called.
I’m pleased to note that so far there is a 4.3% swing to Cathy McGowan in Indi. Given that Labor/Greens didn’t have a hope, the idea was to stave off Sophie Mirabella and her underhand dirt machine. Noted that of all the candidates, only the Libs used negative tactics. Bye, bye Mirabella. 🙂
Updated as at 8:30
Linda Burney!
Failing a major twist later today, that’s my final update for tonight.
In a nutshell – the good news is that the LNP have crashed big time The bad news: Labor need a Steven Bradbury moment to win
Some are suggesting we could go back to the polls.
Yes I can imagine Turnbull (re a fresh election) asking his advisors – Are you suggestion that it might get worse? (Only jokin …)
Answer is likely on the lines of – Yes for you – But Tony’s prospects are looking really, really good.
Back to the polls … I voted below the line to ensure the coalition did NOT get one single preference. My vote won’t be changing. I’ve been watching the election on-line – couldn’t bear listening to LNP hypocrisy regarding ALP’s purported “Mediscare” campaign.
At what point is another election called?
We don’t have to go back to the Polls – unless it’s to pick politicians who can actually do their job. These politicians need a lesson in Democracy 101.
Sad result as to Capricornia. Then again, so many weird results and just a few injustices.
Re diannart, the ABC presentation was appalling until you remember that the new ABC boss is a former Murdoch executive.
Not enough people woke up to the fact that the conservative agenda has not change because the leaders were changed.
Just a fractile more on the two party vote could have had three or four more seats leave the Coalition.
Kate M
You mightn’t have your Bradbury moment but when it all boils down Shorten did a bloody good job.
Excellent result for Bill and Labor to claw back so much ground
Not long ago, this was the news
Sep 2015 Turnbull rolls Abbott
October 2015 polls
Mr Turnbull has more than tripled Bill Shorten’s popularity as preferred prime minister at 67 per cent to Mr Shorten’s 21
The October Fairfax-Ipsos poll has found the Coalition has surged ahead of Labor at 53-47
I reckon the little fella deserves a pat on the back Onya Bill
None of the uncounted seats are known yet yes us just have patience and hope for the best result.
Yes Migs.
Even if Turnbull wins he won’t have enough to pass his double dissolution bill so can call another double dissolution election.
On the reason for the DD. Turnbull mentioned it in his post election speech as an imperative to crack down on the CFMEU. One right wing commentator said it’s a bit late now, it should have been at the front of the campaign.
Maybe Turnbull mentioning it prominently in his speech is setting up for another DD. Turnbull is after all desperate.
Just updated the post with the latest numbers. Will add some info shortly about the nine seats still in the balance.
When I started the article, I was expecting it to be an “election night” update – turns out it was more of an election week…
Mobius, ah yes the CFMEU..and the real reason for the DD election was so that Turnbull/Morrison could pass all the nasties still lurking from the 2013 Hockey horror budget, Morrison thinking that once he had installed Mr Popularity as PM all that remained was to take charge of the Senate.
Another DD? Is Turnbull egotistical enough to think that as the Australian public ‘made a horrible mistake’ a la Tony Abbott and his continuous bleats about horrible mistakes and that he, Turnbull will give us another chance to get it right?
Did you hear Leigh Sales say “Oh good!” when told Barnaby Joyce had won his seat?
I certainly heard that.
Just updated with details of the seats that are hanging in the balance.
I haven’t included PDuddy’s seat in that list – but it is also in doubt, although he holds a narrow lead.
Leigh Sales’ colours were showing all night – and as the night went on, she really struggled to hold back showing her intentions.
Lord Turnbull not so loved after all, Australia does not embrace uppity or pompous easily.
Be gone Ms Sales.
The ABC has been a disgrace and the most enjoyable thing about this election was watching all the right wing hacks going from idiot smirking to dummy spits as the night wore on.
Helvi, I bet you have spared a thought for our old mate Bob Ellis. He was remarkably accurate in some of his predictions.
Speaking of Capricornia, I went to bed about midnight and woke up a few hours later to see the change. Very odd election, but I didn’t laugh, just felt grateful.
One unexpected consequence of this election is the return to Canberra of a lying scumbag James Ashby
James is Pauline Hansons Advisor.
i despair at the intelligence of my country. it seems Winston Churchill was 100% correct.
Pauline lost her shit last night when Sam Dastyari offered her a kebab. She has not changed one bit.
Morrison, Abbott and probably Dutton all retaining seats, how disappointing.
And the Human Headline, cornlegend. Can you imagine the disruptions that will go down with these two involved.
When we look at the swing towards Pauline in Qld and in parts of NSW it give us two points to analyse.
1 the racists views of people in that seats
2 Why the Greens will never do well on that seats.and many in the “bush” for that matter.
Yes, Paul, I thought of him often; he would have loved the show. He believed in Bill, when many of us didn’t..
Deanna, I cringe at the stupidity of people and their ‘fear’ of halal food. Actually I’m far more afraid of vegans. 😉
I expect Hanson-ites to immediately stop eating: kebabs, hummus, tabbouleh, halloumi, falafel, kofta and especially baklava..oh good, I’ll have their share.