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Australia needs to ditch dependence on diesel imports

By Scott Hamilton and Michael Nolan

Amidst the COVID-19 global health and economic shock we have seen Australia’s vulnerable supply chains exposed. As an island country with 98% of our international trade reliant on shipping, we are more at risk than most other nations. Global oil supply markets are shaky and dependence on importing essential vehicle fuels from other countries is a major concern.

As of the end of May 2020, Australia has just over two weeks (18 days) diesel storage supply and we have limited heavy oil reserves (26 days) to produce our own diesel and petrol. Our heavy vehicles such as trucks, tractors and freight rail are dependent on diesel. What would happen if the global supply is unable to reach us due to global conflicts, trade disputes or pandemics?

The truck industry would be hardest hit from a shortage in diesel supply. This risk isn’t the burden of the trucking sector alone. They provide an essential service, especially for food security. Diesel supplies are also critical supplies in mining and manufacturing around the country. Sure, the Minister for Energy has recently purchased crude oil reserves while the prices are low, a strategic petroleum reserve – but they are located on the other side of the world and would take about three weeks to get here. And that’s crude oil – not diesel or petrol!

There would be a real and sustained loss of food at the local supermarket, a real loss of crucial medical supplies in pharmacies – not just a COVID-19 panic buy. There would be limited trade of goods, closure of industries, farms and supply chains. The remaining diesel would be prioritised for ambulance, fire trucks and military. The Australian economy would grind to a halt, probably when it needs to accelerate in response to global conflict or other crises.

Reducing our dependence on diesel and other fuel imports has multiple benefits and can help make Australia a renewable energy exporting superpower rather than a net vehicle fuel importer.

The primary solution is a transition of freight transport (trucks and trains) to locally produced cleaner fuel sources – electric, hydrogen and biodiesel alternatives. This is also an emerging focus globally in the pursuit to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the freight sector which is the only sector projected to increase carbon intensity in the coming decades.

An early opportunity would be to develop a series of low emission heavy and passenger vehicle charging developments along the Hume Highway between Melbourne and Sydney and along the Pacific Highway between Sydney and Brisbane. Re-imagine hydrogen or electric trucks across the Nullabor and 21st century road trains up the centre of Australia. Innovative public private partnerships, creating thousands of jobs and giving Australia fuel security in a post COVID-19 world.

We can learn from elsewhere. COPEL (power company) and the State of Parana in Brazil worked together to maximise transition to electric vehicles by investing in re-fuelling developments that included commercial, residential and government services. COPEL had determined that it could make more money from selling coffee at refuelling stations than it would ever make from selling electricity for vehicles, therefore it made sense to invest in the developments themselves and offer a 10-year guarantee for free electric vehicle re-fuelling.

Our proposal accelerates the purchase of new electric vehicles, boots local manufacturing of electric vehicles, brings forward the hydrogen economy and diversifies the power company’s revenue. The model also allows for government services, accommodation, professional and recreational facilities integrated into the developments up and down Australia’s energy and mobility spines.

Government(s) would need to contribute to by providing a 10-year guarantee of zero (or low) cost power for the refuelling stations and the private sector invests in the trucks and the new commercial developments. This approach would incentivise private investment from the major trucking companies and other financial investors such as superannuation funds to transition their truck fleets off diesel.

The added industry bonus for Australia, is our internationally recognised truck design and development industry can leverage this opportunity to further advance R&D in retrofitting existing trucks, fuel cell and battery technology suited to this global freight transition that is inevitable in the coming decades. Australia is at the cross-roads and we have the chance to secure our energy supplies for the long-haul post COVID-19.

Australia needs to tackle emissions from freight, mining and manufacturing, and when you consider the imperative for food security, transport of goods and the economy – we must ditch our dependence on diesel imports for our island home to have a resilient future.

Michael Nolan and Scott Hamilton are Melbourne based consultants.

 

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Seeking the Post-Corona Sunshine: Time to Consolidate the Australian Social Market?

By Denis Bright

From Deloitte in May 2020: Businesses have halted any plans for investment … Leaving a lasting impact on future productivity.

Throughout Australian history those dire events like the Great Depressions of the 1890s and 1930s, the Pacific War or even the cost of the Great War in lives and government debts have been the great forces for social change with consequences for voting patterns at state and federal elections. There have been fluctuations in commitment to the Australian social market as a result of these upheavals. Sometimes, expected outcomes do not eventuate.

Both the Great War and the Great Depression eroded some of the historical advances in the Australian social market from the Federation era. Cold war politics brought great reverses prior to a more tolerant phase of federal LNP domestic policies after the Credit Squeeze and implementation of the recommendations of the Vernon Report. The way had already been paved for the Rise of Gough Whitlam after he became Opposition Leader in 1967.

The recommendation of the Vernon Report brought federal funding for rail standardization and assistance for Australian Industry Development Corporation (AIDC), Commonwealth Development Bank and expansion of the Commonwealth Serum Laboratories. Both major political parties can indeed achieve consensus on proactive commitments to the expansion and diversification of the Australian economy. Labor’s commitment to consensus-building about the value of the social market has always paid political dividends.

There is a possibility of course that this bipartisanship can be expanded to repair economic disruptions associated with the coronavirus. Insiders in Canberra are surely well aware of the longer-term implications of the current coronavirus crisis. Without JobKeeper and JobSeeker, there would have been unrest across Australia as in previous economic crises. The Australian trade union movement has completely supported such contemporary initiatives and seeks the extension of these programmes beyond September 2020.

Contrast this situation with the social unrest associated with the Great Depression of the 1890s.

The social unrest in the 1890s occurred at trade union hotpots such as the shearing sheds of Central Queensland, the mining fields at Broken Hill and the wharves of large ports. Mass unionism confronted attempts to lower wages and working conditions. Employers justified these actions as business profits were eroded by the serious economic downturns.

At Barcaldine in Central Queensland, the arrival of police squadrons and colonial troops to quell potential unrest is still acknowledged nostalgically each year on the Mayday Weekend (Tree of Knowledge Festival):

The ghost gum, Eucalyptus Papuana, which grew outside the Railway Station, earned its claim to fame as the founding site of the political movement we now know as the Australian Labor Party. In 1891 Barcaldine was the centre for the striking shearers during the “Great Shearers Strike” when they met under its boughs. In May 1891, about 3000 striking shearers marched under the “Eureka” flag to put forward their protests against poor working conditions and low wages. Because the area beneath the Tree of Knowledge was the scene of actions and decisions which had a profound effect on the future of labour and politics in Australia, it has become an icon of the Labor Party and Trade Unions.

The Tree of Knowledge was included in the National Heritage List on 26th January 2006. Sadly, it was poisoned in 2006 and did not recover.

What was once a one day float parade on the Labour Day Monday and known as May Day Parade & Celebrations has grown to a full weekend of community celebration embracing a diverse range of activities including Street Festival, Rev Fest, and Goat Racing now known as the Tree of Knowledge Festival.

Now in Queensland’s safest federal LNP seat of Maranoa, conservative elites have little to tremble about in the voting trends at the Barcaldine Polling Booth in 2019:

 

Preferences from the assortment of minor candidates, built up the One Nation Vote in Barcaldine from 13.04 per cent to 25.60 per cent. Federal LNP Member David Littleproud won this local booth with a 74.40 per cent vote after preferences.

It was a different scenario in 2016 when Labor won the Barcaldine Booth. Back in 2007, Labor won the federal seat of Flynn when Barcaldine was located in that seat. Other Queensland seats of Leichhardt, Dawson and Capricornia were won by Labor. The Labor Heartland will rally to the call if the political communication is exciting and credible enough. If Labor can retain the seat of Eden Monaro on 4 July 2020, some traction will be generated for the 2022 federal election.

At this stage, there is still significant apathy in the Labor Party’s potential heartland support base. Boasts about branch stacking in Victoria are contrary to Labor values and have brought a swift response from National ALP President Wayne Swan and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese.

There have been similar instances in Liberal Party Branches particularly in the electorate of Ryan in Brisbane (ABC News 7 June 2019). The abuse of political office to advance personal over social market goals has become quite systemic.

While discussion of political issues might continue to excite a section of the community on both sides of politics, the vast majority are turned off by discussion of formal politics. For the majority, political involvement is simply a personal choice rather than a core value in Australian democracy.

Evidence of non-participation in formal political processes is not difficult to find.

The AEC’s estimates of electoral non-enrolment exceed 10 per cent of potential voters in 45 federal seats. In four federal seats the non-enrolment rate exceeds 20 per cent. The federal seats most affected are Sydney, Melbourne, Lingiari and Durack. Even a non-enrolment rate of 5 per cent translates into almost a million absent votes in contemporary national elections as noted in Dr Greg Kramer’s doctoral thesis at the Queensland Institute of Technology (2018).

Neglect of Indigenous communities by the federal government extends to the administrative management of electoral rolls by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC). AEC estimates show that 24.4 per cent of indigenous Australians were not enrolled to vote on 30 June 2019. Electoral outcomes could have been affected in the Labor seats of Solomon, Lingiari and Blair as well as the marginal LNP seats of Longman, Leichhardt and Forde in Queensland.

More systematic checks of electoral enrolment are of course not in the interest of the LNP in its most marginal seats. Some voters have never been enrolled to vote and others take advantage of the federal LNP’s EasyPay service to cover the token administrative fines for failure to request a vote.

 

Beyond the administrative challenges of failure to vote or to enrol to vote is the evidence of high rates of informal voting and the appeal of protest votes for populist candidates.

The dire warnings from Deloitte Economics should justify more emphasis on the relevance of the alternative visions for our future within mainstream political parties. Labor should highlight the divide between hard right neoliberal agendas and progressive agendas to advance The Politics of Us.

Dire Short-Term Economic Projections

The prospects of a return to normalcy in the Australian economy are not sustained by forecasts from Deloitte Economics. This makes a farce of the curtailment of the JobSeeker and JobKeeper programmes from September 2020.

Image: Deloitte May 2020

The Reserve Bank (RBA) has responded to the current economic crisis by lowering official interest rates and offers of assurance to financial institutions in a similar vein to commitments made during the GFC. Last week’s reverses on share markets threaten dividends on superannuation assets particularly for self-funded retirees who are means-tested out of the receipt of part-pensions. Recovery will be difficult for at least two quarters if the global battle against COVID-19’s second wave are kept at bay.

The combined effects of the evolving global economic recession and the trade war between the US and China will have a major impact on Australia’s recovery from the current crisis.

The level of net Chinese investment in Australia and related investment through Hong Kong has been greatly exaggerated by senior LNP ministers. Even with the inclusion of investment from Hong Kong, investment from China in Australia is currently running at about 6-7 per cent of all net investment in the year to December 2019 (ABS 5352.0 Released 7 May 2020):

Even before the current COVID-19 Crisis, the contribution of Australia’s investment multiplier was burning like a damp fire as revealed in the latest data on capital expenditure in the March Quarter (ABS 5625.0 Released 28 May 2020):

All sectors recorded negative capital expenditure growth with the exception of mining (+4.2 per cent) and manufacturing (+5.7 per cent).

Another bright spot is the strength of the Australian dollar which hovers in the 65-71 cent exchange range to the US dollar.

With overseas tourism grounded, there may be opportunities to attract more capital flows into Australia, particularly from Asian countries where investors are looking for a safe-haven currency.

Failure of the senate to endorse a lowering of company taxes for all companies, left the Morrison Government awash with revenue prior to the 2019 elections. Largesse was possible for business support, income tax redistribution and even those grants to sporting clubs.

It was the government sectors at both state and federal levels that were already carrying the Australian economy prior to the current COVID-19 crisis when Australia’s GDP was growing at just over 2 per cent for the year to December 2019 (RBA Charts for June 2020):

Crush time will come for the federal LNP well after the Eden-Monaro by-election date when the perceived generosity of JobKeeper and JobSeeker programmes are curtailed. In the short-term, the Sports Bet predicts a close result in Eden Monaro which has not yet been updated since the problems of branch-stacking were identified in the Victorian ALP. This corruption has tainted the image of the Labor Movement nationally at a most critical time for Australian politics during our first recession in almost 30 years.

Initial financial over-commitment level to the cost of JobKeeper is now being followed by the first signs of the austerity measures which will be followed in the future to ease the blow-out in the federal budget deficit by the premature removal of childcare subsidies (ABC News 10 June 2020):

But the COVID-19 smash-up is already looking like the “pink” recession, with women disproportionately affected by the shutdowns.

Think retail, food services and hospitality for a start. Women make up the majority of workers in these low-paid areas of employment, all of which have been hit hard.

“Health crises can exacerbate existing gender inequalities,” the relevant Government agency observed last month.

So why the Federal Government should choose the childcare sector as the first to prematurely lose the JobKeeper wage subsidy is rather perplexing.

Of any sector, it is one of the most female dominated.

“A lot more women have either lost jobs or lost hours than men and I would’ve thought that involvement in early childhood was one of the best things Government could do to protect jobs for women,” Early Childhood Australia chief executive Sam Page told the ABC.

“Both to support women who are relying on childcare to get back to work, but also to support nearly 200,000 who work in this sector, of which 97 per cent are women.”

If the Australian economy was already relying on government expenditure and consumer debt to keep everyone afloat prior to the COVID-19 Crisis, a minimum wage freeze is taking us back to the Fraser years and the onset of the 1981-82 recession. There is no hint that this freeze on the slender incomes of lower income casual workers should be balanced by a deferral of tax concessions to higher income workers and a freeze on executive salaries.

Even Channel Nine News dared to expose the take—home incomes of some of our political and financial elites (8 June 2020):

The chiefs of some of Australia’s top public offices are earning close to $1 million a year as the nation works to attract top talent to its most remunerated jobs.

Publicly available figures from the Australian Government Remunerational Tribunal show wages of full-time offices – which does not include the positions of parliamentary secretaries or CEOs of government-owned businesses – top out at more than $886,750 a year.

The top total remuneration was earnt by Wayne Byres, Chair of the Australia Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) with $886,750.

A three-way tie for second place with a total remuneration of $775,910 was Rod Sims (Chairperson of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission), James Shipton (Chairperson of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission) and Dr. Stephen Donaghue QC (Solicitor-General).

Then comes CEO of Services Australia Rebecca Skinner with $748,210 followed by the Australian Federal Police Commissioner Reece Kershaw with $720,480.

Two other positions on the same remuneration of $720,480 were the Commissioner of the Australian Public Service Peter Woolcott and Director General of the Office of National Intelligence Nick Warner.

Instead of deferring the tax concessions for middle to upper income families, the federal LNP will campaign on the benefits of lower taxes and a return to the normalcy of corporate ideology and the generation of patriotic fervour against the resurgence of China as a global superpower.

Progressive Australia must have some real alternatives to a repeat of the fear strategies which won Scott Morrison another term of government in 2019 and depressed Labor’s heartland vote in electorates like Capricornia and Blair. The federal LNP is adept at the development of communication strategies which torpedo essential initiatives like more equitable access to specialist medical services for the treatment of cancer through fairer bulk-billing incentives as extravagant extras.

The appeal of tax relief by neoliberal parties has worked well internationally in Britain and Germany. Where social democratic parties hold power in places like Spain, Denmark and Sweden, it is usually with the co-operation of minor parties to from workable coalitions. Unless economic conditions really deteriorate, it will be difficult for social democratic parties here and beyond to break out of the bind which is being imposed by the tax weapon used by neoliberal parties to project their credentials. Are there any alternatives to this communication bind?

Prospects for New Australian Progressive Options?

One way out of the current impasse over the risks of higher taxes might be to allow national and state investment funds to take investments from the local and especially the overseas corporate sectors to diversify available funding for essential and potentially income earning essential services.

State investment funds such as the Queensland Investment Corporate (QIC) have routinely managed essential services such as motorways, ports or housing projects. Some of these investment projects were sold off by the state LNP but a balance of portfolios still exist.

Cut-backs in public broadcasting are a real threat to our integrity as a sovereign nation and investment in innovative ABC programming could be a key export of both programmes and technical services internationally.

In NSW, the state LNP is still cautious about public sector investment which potentially creates dividends for local and overseas corporate investors. NSW has sold public electricity networks to assist in funding its NSW Generations Fund (NGF) which can certainly assist with the delivery of essential services and public infrastructure.

Yet the NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet appropriately talks up the value of the Fund without too much attention to its dark past in the sale of public assets to seed the new fund (First Annual Report):

The NSW Government announced the NGF in June 2018, a world-first sovereign wealth fund to guard against intergenerational budgetary pressures and keep debt sustainable in the long-term, while also delivering for communities today.

Seeded with $10 billion in late 2018, $7 billion following the sale of a 51 percent stake in WestConnex and $3 billion from balance sheet reserves, the NGF had a balance of $10.9 billion as at 30 June 2019, outperforming expectations.

The overall vision and purpose of the NGF is to support the State’s Triple-A credit rating over the long-term and ensure the NSW Government can plan for the future by responsibly delivering the essential productive infrastructure for the people of New South Wales without burdening future generations with debt. It is legislated that funds within the NGF can only be used for the purpose of paying down debt, or funding community services and facilities projects.

Perhaps more NSW Public Assets could have been retained under state or corporatized controls if the NGF was opened to voluntary corporate funding. Dividend payments would always be at the discretion of the NGF as with returns on the superannuation contribution of wage-earners. In contrast, NSW T-Bonds are largely long-term options from traditional fixed interest arrangements. NSW Treasury is welcome to clarify the situation.

Perhaps opportunities exist to achieve bipartisan support for unwelcome privatization programmes in the quest for new investment capital when corporate providers both here and overseas are willing to make an investment contribution that delivers wealth generation for the wider community through sustainable programmes such as catchment and coastal management, alternative energy projects, or affordable housing linked to transport oriented developments (TODs) in urban and regional planning.

Similar initiatives should be taken at a federal level to overcome the backlogs in our essential services through the creation of a National Investment Fund either as a separate entity or a complementary financial additive to the Future Fund. There is a possibility that investments in any future Australian Investment and Essential Service Funds might also attract some taxation relief for individual investors and especially for major superannuation firms.

The usual hassles about funding the ABC and other public broadcasting networks could perhaps be eased by corporate investment in creative programmes that inspire domestic audiences and add to export revenue. The technical expertise of public broadcasting is indeed an exportable service for consultancy services to the Asia-Pacific Regions.

The relative strength of the Australian dollar is a great national asset in attracting new investment in state and federal infrastructure and essential service funds.

Being able to invest in sustainable development programmes in Australia would have instant appeal to corporate sectors in countries with more unstable currencies particularly from our Asian and Middle Eastern neighbours. Currency conversation rates are always on the move in a volatile market and all these rates have moved ever so slightly against the Australian dollar in the last week since I accessed the data (Morningstar Currency Converters 8-13 June 2020).

The appeal of a relatively stable Australian hedge-fund currency is an asset which will also strengthen the profile of our own financial sector globally and offer capital flows to our state and federal governments without those nasty election debates about the value of neoliberalism as the best mechanism for sustainable economic development.

From Less Stable Currencies to Australian Hedge Fund Investments?

Alienated constituents across Australia are more likely to respond to the politics of hope based on some daring bipartisan initiatives. Progressive Australia needs to support strategies to promote political involvement even if some degree of risk-taking is involved in challenging cautious assumptions about Normalcy in Australian Democracy. Talking up the value of the social wage offered by Medicare, affordable housing and income support programmes in difficult times must always be a part of that return to Normalcy which the federal LNP so desperately wants to foster to return to business as usual practices. The generation of wealth through a broadened investment multiplier would indeed become a bipartisan priority for sustainable economic and social recovery in the post-coronavirus sunshine which everyone welcomes.

Denis Bright (pictured) is a financial member of the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA). Denis is committed to consensus-building in these difficult times. Your feedback from readers advances the cause of citizens’ journalism. Full names are not required when making comments. However, a valid email must be submitted if you decide to hit the Replies Button.

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People trusted Holden

By 2353NM

In the 1970s and 1980s the slogan was ‘People trust Holden’; and they did. General Motors Holden had spent a lot of time and money over many years marketing Holden vehicles as Australia’s own car and as a result Holden sales were going gangbusters.

While a considerable amount of design, engineering and manufacturing was done here for a long time, it was always General Motors Head Office in Detroit, Michigan that called the shots. The message we got from General Motors in 2013 when they announced they would shut Australian vehicle manufacturing down in 2017 was that Holden was nothing more than a General Motors business unit where return on investment was the key requirement. Admittedly, the Abbott/Hockey 2014 budget didn’t help.

The cars produced across Australia were commodities, as were the staff who did their best to provide a product they were proud of, as were the people in the distribution network and the consumers who bought a Holden. We were reminded how ‘Australian’ Holden was during February this year when GM announced that they would no longer sell Holden badged vehicles (imported from manufacturing plants around the world like lots of other commodities) anywhere as they were concentrating on their ‘home‘ (read USA) market and China.

Those that manage GM believe like all commodities, the Holden vehicles on the road today will outlive their usefulness and be disposed of. Some will mourn the passing, some (inside and outside Australia) will retain and treasure an example of Holden engineering and production, others will gradually forget the commodity ever existed and from General Motors viewpoint, once all the statutory obligations are addressed (to the letter of the law at least), the world will move on.

So much for trust. Trust is a mutual relationship where both sides have an implicit belief that everyone is looking after the interests of all parties to the agreement. Arguably, Holden did deserve our trust in the 1970s and 80s as for the majority of that time they were producing well designed and safe (by the standards and technology of the day) vehicles in Australia and selling them domestically and internationally.

GM aren’t the only body to have forgotten people aren’t commodities. It’s not hard to make the argument the Coalition Government came to power on a promise of trust in 2013 and have been breaking that promise ever since — by treating us all as commodities.

While the current A(bbott), T(urnbull) , M(orrison) Coalition government is not the first in Australia’s history to leverage income support for those that need it for political ends, the use and often threatened widening of the compulsory use of the system that requires 80% of income support to be placed onto a debit card is a new depth in the persecution of those that for some reason have the need for help — not belittlement. It is a scandal that parents cannot pay for school excursions, uniforms and the like with the card because the schools are not ‘approved’ by Indue ,the contractor that manages the ‘Cashless Welfare’ debit card for the ATM Government.

Indue cards can’t be used at cash machines as converting the balance on the card to cash is against the rules and if the communications or EFTPOS systems go down you can’t buy anything either. The stigma is real and ongoing and the whole process seems to be designed in a manner to dehumanise people and treat them as a (unwelcome) commodity. However Indue is certainly cashing in on the system. Reports in 2017 claimed the card system costs the government about $18.9 Million during the trial phase in a few locations, or around $10,000 per card issued, with no evidence to suggest there is any benefit or subsequent cost reduction as the card gets rolled out elsewhere. If it cost the banks that much to issue a debit card we’d all still be filling out withdrawal forms for our passbook accounts and hoping to get to the bank before it closed for the weekend.

Until Australia was affected by COVID-19, the Australian unemployment rate has been bouncing around 5% for quite some time. Some ‘unemployment’ is inevitable, for example on the day of the survey some will have left their previous job and not started their new job, school leavers or new arrivals in the country have yet to find work or companies like GM have determined that a number of employees are no longer required given the strategy worked out in the boardroom usually in some place far removed from the ‘factory floor’.

While ‘assistance’ to find other employment will probably be given by GM as an act of appeasement to public relations, a lot of the soon to be ex-Holden employees would be fearful of under-employment. According to the Government, if you are working at least one hour a week you are considered to be employed and while that is probably correct in a literal sense, the rate of pay would have to be considerable to ensure those employees working one hour a week could live comfortably on their income. The University of New South Wales noted the underemployment — usually those employed casually and for various reasons needing more hours — to be at 8.1% prior to the last Federal Budget — discussing why there needs to be some attention paid to the issue by the ATM Government. Of course there wasn’t, commodities are there to do the bidding of corporations and then thrown on the scrap heap.

As further evidence of the ATM Government treating people as commodities, while the companies such as Paladin who have contracts supplying the ‘guards’ and ‘support staff’ at the ‘detention centres’ are raking in millions while treatment of refugee seekers over the past decade who have been sent to detention centres offshore is nothing short of abysmal. Also consider the underfunding (and even greater underdelivery) of the NDIS, or the second rate NBN delivered by those who should have known better. Minster responsible at the time, Malcolm Turnbull was one of the founding directors [his merchant bank held a 25% share] when Ozemail (one of the first hugely successful ISPs in Australia) was floated on stock exchanges in 1996, and clearly demonstrated little regard for those that have no alternative to NBN technology.

The pre-COVID-19 and (currently) post September 2020 Newstart/JobSeeker payment (the income support for the unemployed or underemployed) is described by the Business Council as one of the elements of ‘entrenched disadvantage’, rather than allowing those who rely on the support payment to live with some dignity, the ATM Government chooses to spend taxpayer money on Community Development Grants that according to The New Daily is a scandal far bigger than ‘sportsrorts’, propping up environmentally damaging industries, and only attacking the Victorian and Queensland (ALP) state premiers that choose to listen to the advice of their health officials, despite the Liberal premiers of Tasmania and South Australia making similar decisions.

Unforgivably and worse than the examples above, when a $60 BILLION error is made in the forecasting of the need for the COVID-19 specific JobKeeper payment, rather than extending the blanket of care and concern to those that were left in the cold the first time around (those in employment for under 12 months, university and local government staff, workers on most visa arrangements, arts workers to name just a few), Morrison and Frydenberg’s initial reaction is to claim that they don’t intend to make ‘massive changes’ to the temporary assistance measure.

Just as people trusted Holden in the 1970s and 1980s and eventually saw the reality of a foreign multinational that really didn’t deserve the trust, Australians have demonstrated time and time again in the past few weeks that they understand and respect those that treat them as individuals such as the national and state medical officers in their COVID-19 briefings. We acknowledged a lot of them this time last week. However, once the world stops talking about COVID-19 (which will inevitably happen), the ATM government will expect us all to be back in the salt mines making money for the entitled few like good economic units always do. Which is exactly what conservative governments have always done.

What do you think?

This article was originally published on The Political Sword

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Anangu Mayatja say “no” to reopen Uluru

By Tjimpuna Ruby, and supported by the Anangu Mayatja Council of Elders

Please refer to the media release from Parks Australia below.

My Grandfather and two aunties were not called into this meeting as decision-makers on the Board for this to be in concrete.

Our entire Western Desert Block is closed as a biosecurity zone and that includes ULURU – KATA TJUTA NATIONAL PARK.

Anangu are not happy with the threats from Tourism NT and Voyages to reopen.

 

Media Release from Parks Australia

Staged re‐opening plans announced for Kakadu and Ulur̲u‐Kata Tjut̲a National Parks

Parks Australia has today announced staged re-opening plans for Kakadu and Ulur̲u-Kata Tjut̲a and National Parks, with both parks to welcome visitors from Friday, 19 June 2020.

Director of National Parks, Dr James Findlay said due to COVID-safe arrangements and infrastructure upgrades, some areas of the national parks will not be open to visitors during the initial re-opening, but there will be plenty of opportunity to seek recreation and relaxation in these much-loved parts of Australia.

“Kakadu National Park will be open for day use only, between 8 am and 5 pm. Most boat ramps will be open, meaning visitors will once again be able to enjoy some of the Top End’s best fishing.

“Mamukala Wetlands, Mangarre Rainforest, Bardedjilidji, Gungural, the Yurmikmik area and the Burrungkuy (Nourlangie) region will also be open, allowing for some stunning walks and access to Kakadu’s wildlife and world-class rock art,” Dr Findlay said.

“Overnight camping will not be permitted in Kakadu during the first stage of re-opening, however there are many accommodation options for visitors at Jabiru, Cooinda and Mary River.

“In order to keep flattening the COVID-19 curve, all tour operators will be required to carry their COVID-19 plan when with visitors.

“Currently, we are continuing to make some urgent infrastructure repairs across the park, including at the Bowali Visitor Centre which will remain closed for several weeks, district ranger stations and staff housing. These are a priority in supporting increased visitation.

“At Ulur̲u-Kata Tjut̲a National Park, walking tracks and sunrise and sunset viewing areas will be open. Visitors can take a walk to Mutitjulu Waterhole, hike around the base of Ulur̲u or explore Kata Tjut̲a’s breathtaking views. There are plenty of opportunities for walking, wildlife watching, photography and other activities.

“The Cultural Centre and associated businesses will remain closed during this first stage of re-opening, as will organised group activities and tours.

“We ask visitors to continue maintaining social distancing. We’ll be conducting additional cleaning of high contact areas and extra hand wash stations will be set up at key high-contact locations throughout the parks. Some paths or areas may be one-directional or have other health and safety restrictions related to COVID-19, so we request visitors please observe arrows and signs,” Dr Findlay said.

 

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Has COVID-19 finally put a nail in the neo-liberal coffin?

By Dr John Töns

Has COVID-19 finally put the nail in the neo-liberal coffin? Morrison is rather self-congratulatory as to how well Australia has handled the crisis. Certainly, compared to other neo-liberal economies we have done rather well. But how do we compare to an economy that is not a neo-liberal economy?

When we compare the way the Marxist government of Kerala responded to COVID-19 to those western democracies committed to some form of neo-liberal agenda one is hard pressed to see merit in the neo-liberal ideology. The facts speak for themselves. Canada and Kerala have approximately the same size population; 37 and 35 million respectively. Canada has a per capita GDP of about $50,000 contrasted to Kerala with a per capita GDP of $2,700. Based on just those figures one would expect that Canada would have more resources to protect its population than Kerala. However, Canada had 97,114 cases resulted in 7,960 deaths whereas Kerala had a total of 2096 cases resulting in 16 deaths.

When we look at what sets Kerala apart, we can see that it was not just a case of responding better to the virus but rather that the country was simply better prepared. In many ways Kerala did much the same as most other countries. It had adopted the WHO protocol of ‘test, trace, isolate and support.’ This is much the same as Canada’s response. Arguably Kerala acted much faster than other polities. But that does not seem to be the full story.

Since 1957 Kerala has initiated land reforms, a robust public health and education system. The infrastructure was in place to enable it to respond quickly and efficiently to a pandemic. That infrastructure is publicly funded. The public sector is designed to respond to what people need, not to what people are willing to buy or can afford. The state identified a risk to the health and well-being of its citizens very early. A rapid response team was in place long before the virus had escaped Wuhan. How could a state with fewer resources than a wealthy country like Canada have fewer cases? Nor is it just an Asian thing – on a per capita basis Kerala outperformed both South Korea and Singapore. Singapore does also provide an interesting point of comparison. Singapore had a ‘second wave’ outbreak.

The world had been busy congratulating Singapore on its ability to contain the virus, but its second wave gave us a better insight into what was happening. The second wave occurred among the many thousands of migrant workers who lived cheek by jowl in cramped conditions. In Kerala 150,000 migrant workers were trapped by the national lockdown. These 150,000 people were well looked after given three meals a day for six weeks whilst they waited for the lockdown to be lifted. They did not add to their COVID-19 infections. Yet migrant workers in Singapore did. Why was there such a marked difference?

Writing on Facebook, Bilahari Kausikan, an ex-diplomat, put it bluntly: “We did drop the ball on [foreign workers] which are invisible to most Singaporeans.” But why would they be invisible? Marx referred to the reification of labour within an advanced capitalist economy. In Singapore and in many other parts of the world some workers are rendered invisible by the role they play in society – they may be employed as cleaners, construction workers and the like but they are not part of society – they are tools that shape the society and as such little attention is paid to them by public officials. As a result, their role in society renders them invisible. Public policy does not deal with the invisible – the invisible do not vote; it is only when the invisible impact on the lives of the visible that they come to our attention. One sees this around the world.

When a major city holds a major event like the Olympics the homeless are quickly rounded up – seeing homeless people sleeping on the streets is not a good look when a city wishes to show case itself. In the lead up to the 2016 games in Rio Catalytic communities launched a programme to bring visibility to the favela community voices in the lead up to the 2016 Rio Olympics. The blog was so successful that ten years later it is still bringing the plight of the invisible people to the world’s attention. Thus, as Tokyo was preparing its bid we find that in order to create a good impression for The International Olympic Evaluation Commission. Tokyo’s Metropolitan Government welcomed the Commission by spending nearly US$5.5 million on the trip. Preparations included two weeks of city sweeps, removing homeless people’s tents and other possessions along the streets where the IOC Evaluation Commission members would pass by on their luxury bus tour.

These largely invisible people also seem to have the highest rate of infections and deaths. They are another denial that black lives matter or perhaps we should refer to it as a denial that invisible lives matter. These people at the bottom of society keep the wheels of the neo-liberal economy grinding along. In a neo-liberal economy, the poor, the disadvantaged do not count. One only has to look at the rapidity with which the Morrison government is dismantling its expenditure on the poor. Not only is the plan to revert the dole to its pre-covid status but job seekers are required to demonstrate that they are busy applying for the non-existent jobs. Childcare funding is being ripped out – again impacting adversely on women and single mothers.

Thus far Labor has been muted in its criticism. It is time Labor made an unambiguous stand and showed that the impact of COVID-19 was as bad as it was because we have a government that is more concerned about the economy than the welfare and the health of all Australians. For a little while we were all in it together. But no longer.

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Listen to the experts

By Ad astra

Are you as impressed as I am with Australia’s response to COVID-19? It is regarded as perhaps the most competent reaction, amongst similar nations, of how to manage an outbreak of a vicious virus.

Why is it so?

In my view, this outcome has resulted because our decision makers at both federal and local levels have listened to the experts, and have followed their advice.

We are fortunate to have such expert advice in abundance: scientific, medical, psychological, nursing, epidemiological, and public health.

This piece names many of these experts. Their images have not been included, as the piece would have taken too long to load on your device. However, photos of most of them have been linked to their names. Should you be unfamiliar with them, click these links and their images will appear. Some experts may have been inadvertently omitted. If so, we apologize. Some images may be copyright.

You will be familiar with the clutch of professors and specialists in medicine, mental health and community health that have appeared in the media countless times: You will remember particularly Brendan Murphy and Paul Kelly who give regular updates, Michael Kidd, AM, who provides us with the general practice viewpoint, Ian Hickey, Pat McGorry, Ruth Vine, Christine Morgan, and Georgie Harman of Beyond Blue, who address the mental health aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and Alison McMillan, Chief Nursing and Midwifery Officer, and Annie Butler, of the Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation, who cover nursing aspects.

Behind the scenes we have our senior sages in medical science: Peter Doherty who heads the Doherty Institute, one of his directors, Sharon Lewin who often provides sound advice to the public, and many other outstanding scientists, and Stephen Duckett of the Grattan Institute.

Dr Norman Swan

Everyone admires the daily updates that Norman Swan gives us on radio and TV. He has become the face of timely, lucid, reliable, and richly informative advice, which all of us value greatly.

You will have admired the lucidity of the several deputies who have explained the evolving status of the COVID-19 pandemic, and what we should do. Often striking young doctors, they have impressed us with their clarity, the depth of their knowledge, and the ease with which they have addressed their audiences. Nick Coatesworth is a classic example. Brett Sutton, Jeanette Young and Jenny Firman of the RAN are three others.

As a medico, I have admired their expertise and communication skills. Our medical schools ought to be proud of these graduates. To me, their straightforwardness, their plausibility, and the absence of political spin make a striking contrast to the spin and deceptiveness with which politicians habitually assail us as they try to make a political point, no matter how distressing the situation is to ordinary folk.

The result of these expert ministrations is a well-planned program of remediation and prevention that federal and state political leaders have implemented, with encouraging results. Australia’s approach is already being hailed internationally as a model for handling pandemics. The spread of the virus has been limited, and in many places controlled, with relatively few new outbreaks occurring, and where they have, they have been assessed rapidly and ameliorated.

We have become familiar with ‘flattening the curve’, and have watched with satisfaction as it steadily did so.

We have noted too the disastrous consequences of leaders ignoring expert advice, and substituting their own inexpert, stupid and dangerous solutions. Donald Trump leads the field, and we can see where that has taken the US: almost 2 million cases and over 112,000 deaths so far!

Even Labor supporters acknowledge the success of our government’s program at both federal and local levels, and support it strongly. They too know that most of the success has been listening to the experts and following their advice, based as it is on science and experience.

What a pity it is that politicians ignore expert advice from scientists working in other fields, notably the study of climate change and environmental protection because it conflicts with their ideological position.

If only they would listen to the experts and use their advice!

This article was originally published on The Political Sword

For Facebook users, The Political Sword has a Facebook page:
Putting politicians and commentators to the verbal sword

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Seeking the Post-Corona Sunshine: Time for More Momentum on Sustainable Environments and Social Justice

By Denis Bright

Nationwide support for Black Lives Matter demonstrates our capacity to over-ride cautions from political elites during the current public health crisis if the demand for protest is urgent enough.

After 70,000 years of human settlement in Australia, the spirit of the Dreamtime is just as relevant as ever in advancing human rights and ecological sustainability.

Mainstream environmental education can be a refocus of Dreamtime Interpretations and extend from environmental education itself to literature and natural sciences.

The appeal of our exotic landscapes has surely been rekindled by the isolation imposed during the COVID-19 era. Australians might largely be prevented from embarking on non-essential overseas travel for the foreseeable future beyond the proposed COVID-safe travel bubble to New Zealand and some adjacent Pacific Islands.

Neo-conservatives will be nostalgic about a rapid return to the perceived normalcy of a corporately driven society. Promoting fear of China will damage our own economic recovery from the current public health crisis.

Fair scrutiny of overseas investment and commercial franchises are always necessary. These controls should not just be directed at one country which now has frosty relationships with the Trump Administration.

It may indeed take decades before there is a return to even-handed Chinese investment in Australia. In the interim corporate investment will always be at the behest of multinational corporate leaders with their penchant for systematic tax evasion through overseas tax havens and dodgy accounting practices (Nassim Khaden in The SMH 20 May 2018):

Fast-food giant McDonald’s has defended its long-standing practice of paying hundreds of millions of dollars of royalties offshore, which reduces its local taxes, as a legitimate business practice.

The American company’s latest financial accounts for the year ending December 31, 2017, show McDonald’s paid its head entity – previously based in Singapore but now based in Britain – a “service fee” amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars. Payment of the fee reduced McDonald’s Australia’s tax bill because it lowered its taxable profit.

McDonald’s Australia reported paying a service fee of $388.8 million to related entity McDonald’s Asia Pacific (up from $374.6 million in 2016). The company confirmed the entire $388.8 million was a royalty fee.

Environmental education should indeed be a focus of school curricula options in the post-corona era in most subject areas in contrast to the negative outcomes generated saturation advertising of junk-foods. This not so remote landscape at Chillagoe, just 250 kms west of Cairns hardly needs the enhancement of fried chicken packs.

Focus on Protecting Species and Ecosystems: Image of the Limestone Cliffs from the Chillagoe Caving Club in N.Q.

Creative focus on environments justifies an introductory focus on just how local environments at Chillagoe fit onto the broader patterns of tropical savanna ecosystems.

As with most overseas educational resources, some fine tuning of the Distribution of the Key Global Biomes is required. The main shortcoming of the global distribution map is surely the category of Mixed and Deciduous Forests which needs more sub-classifications and some fine-tuning of inaccuracies in the colourful mix provided for students.

It is for students and their teachers to clarify the diversity of natural and built environments in each of the ecosystems covered. In this recovery phase from a major public health crisis, environmental awareness is good for morale even if it is simply a local walk or bicycle ride.

Even a quite accurate Geology Map of Metro Brisbane is far-too generalised to cover all the habitat niches in local areas where rock formations present a baffling challenge to students and educators alike. Here past heritages, present realities and future trends interact.

Advancing Earth and Space Science (30 April 2020) has provided some topical anecdotes on the easy access available to the Gold Mine Picnic Area at Mt. Coot-tha in Brisbane which I hope to visit myself for the first time. (Report by Evelyn Mervine):

One of our favourite hikes at Mount Coot-tha is along the Ghost Hole Track, which takes you past some old gold mine workings. At Mount Coot-tha, there is gold mineralization is located in small quartz-rich lenses that are located in meta-sedimentary rocks, specifically in the Bunya Phyllite and the Neranleigh-Fernvale Beds.

The gold mineralization at Mount Coot-tha is not spectacular. However, there was intermittent gold mining on the mountain from the 1890s to the 1950s. Today, no gold prospecting or mining is permitted in the forest, but you can take a walk along an easy hiking trail to see an old gold mining shaft and some remnants of mining infrastructure. You can even have a picnic at the “Gold Mine Picnic Area”.

We really enjoy our little hikes through the former gold mining area. The forest is beautiful, and the remnants of gold mining and associated informational signs are interesting. The hike is perfect if you want an easy, but interesting, hike to go on with a toddler.

Image from blogs.agu.org/

Our international perspectives might also be so different if Australians identified with the Biomes on the North-South Divide between the Arctic and the Antarctic.

This perspective takes us such a long way from the mainstream media perspectives of international affairs with an artificial focus on a Washington DC.

The deafness of the Trump Administration to the problem of climate change in the Indo Pacific Basin is indeed one of the gravest security threats of our times. No amount of militarisation of our region will address the problem in the future.

Contemporary geopolitical boundaries do exist. However, the focus on divisions and perceived strategic threats should not be opportunities for the spread of militarism as welcomed by the federal LNP during the Trump era (The Canberra Times, 24 August 2019):

Defence Minister Linda Reynolds has opened the first phase of the expanded naval base at Lombrum on Manus Island, it has been reported.

Australia has been working with the US and Papua New Guinea to upgrade the strategically significant deep-water port into a key staging point into Asia.

The base will host Australian and US naval ships as part of a deal signed with Papua New Guinea and is seen as a potential counter to China’s rising influence in the contested South China Sea.

Manus Island now has a new wharf, facilities for maritime infrastructure and long-range communications, and troop barracks, News Corp reports.

The Australian Navy and Air Force have also been involved in training PNG forces and overhauling local aircraft, and four patrol boats are set to be gifted to the Pacific nation.

“It has always been a very strategic location in our region, and this is a base the Papua New Guineans have identified that they would like to further develop,” Senator Reynolds told News Corp.

“This is strategically important … in a military context it has always been important and remains so.”

Senator Reynolds said the defence deal with PNG was worth $42 million per year and included training, infrastructure and hardware.

Base commander Peter Tupma claimed the expansion was necessary.

“The world is shifting and there are power plays in our region and we are very blessed to be in partnership with Australia,” he said.

Does Australia indeed speak for a diverse region when it imposes a militaristic future on an island which served as the location of a refugee detention centre and now a high-profile defence base at the expanded Lombrum Naval Base?

Giving Peace a Better Chance in the Post-Corona Era

Australia: Still Girt by Strategic Seas (image from Jane’s Polynesia Home Page Online 2017)

It was the government of Peter O’Neil in PNG which ordered the closure of the Manus Island Detention Centre which was the scene of riots in 2014. Does the anguish of the 2014 riots justify a militaristic future for the island in a bizarre power game about perceived strategic threats from China to our region? (The Guardian 1 June 2020).

Compulsive obedience to great and powerful friends abroad within the US Global Alliance carries too many blind spots which this weekend’s rallies in both Australia and the USA have sought to expose. A renewed focus on Dreamtime values will surely assist in tempering our obedience to great and powerful friends with alternative visions of new military bases and space warfare as future distractions to the Australian Spirit.

Two leaders from the Five Eyes Intelligence network are already offside with the antics of the Trump Administration from New Zealand and Canada. Australian activism can tip the balance in favour of more dissent in the Echelon surveillance network.

Denis Bright (pictured) is a financial member of the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA). Denis is committed to consensus-building in these difficult times. Your feedback from readers advances the cause of citizens’ journalism. Full names are not required when making comments. However, a valid email must be submitted if you decide to hit the Replies Button.

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Unemployment by COVID exploded

By John Haly

Locking down the economy to save lives in a pandemic comes at the cost of unemployment, but how much, is the issue. Measuring that unemployment in Australia has been the focus of much dissent of late, in both social and mainstream media. The variations post-COVID have been extreme and rigour in methodology and measurement primarily abandoned.

Headlines like the ABC’sAlmost a million Australians out of work due to coronavirus; RBA tips economy to take 10pc hit”, are common. The Reserve Bank and Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre asserted similarly, “unemployment rate will rocket from 5.1 per cent past the 1992 high of 11.1 per cent as quickly as August before hitting 12.7 per cent in May 2021.

ABS instability

Meanwhile, the underfunded and understaffed ABS produced statistics on unemployment that needed readjusting between January and May of 2020. Between 5.1% to 5.2% for any given month, raising or dropping unemployment estimates month to month anywhere between 5,500 to 10,900. The month of February shifted from 689.9K (5.1%) on the 19th of March by an additional 10.9K to 709.8K (5.2%), by the 16th of April. The adjacent chart shows the other four adjustments. Data accuracy was problematic under COVID-19.

ABS’s Unemployment website record of changes to unemplyment figures in 2020

Apparently, the ABS had stopped surveying the whole of March during the lockdown. By the 14th of May, the ABS announced that unemployment had only risen from 5.2% (718.8K) in March to 6.2% (823.3K) in April. No trend estimates for April were released, despite being widely perceived as an underestimate. If this is to be considered valid, then this constituted a percentage of drastic unemployment which had previously been unseen, … since September of 2015 – when it was last 6.2%. In the middle of a Pandemic with apparently massive job losses, we were expected to believe it was as “catastrophic” as most of 2014 and 2015. Although if you look back far enough, it was much worse (as unemployment exceeded 6.2%) in the first half of 2003, back as far as the time ABS kept records, using the redesigned sample methodology developed, back in 1992.

6.2%? Really?

To everyone’s surprise, a certain level of healthy scepticism has arisen about the ABS statistics. There were dozens of social media posts that bandied the “one hour a week” rule for defining employment, as a criticism.

Questioning of Sen. Michaelia Cash 19th Sept 2019 at Doorstop Canberra

The idea that anything over one” hour a week constitutes “employment” arose from a question raised by a journalist to Michaelia Cash. The reaction to Cash’s “one hour a week” measure of employment is problematic because neither was, the question well-posed nor the answer, accurate. The problem is the “one hour in a week” rule is a misnomer. Statistically, that is true of what is known as the “reference week”, BUT the ABS also takes regard of the four weeks before the end of the reference week. So “what counts as full-time work” is not measured in any one week, neither do they count your work history for only a week. Besides, no one works for merely one hour a week as Greg Jericho is quick to point out. It is far more likely the minimum is at least a single work shift a week. Although, Greg’s focusing on the “one hour a week”, ignores the other points of exclusion.

You also have to be actively looking for work during those four weeks to be counted as unemployed. Other exclusions include working without pay in either a family business or farm during the reference week. Steve Keen in “The Australian”, of all places:

Herein lies the problem with spin in economic data: sometimes the spin turns your way, sometimes it doesn’t. The ABS uses the internationally sanctioned definition of unemployment, which is similar to Tom Waits’ definition of being drunk: you have to be really, really out of it to qualify. Not only must you not be in employment, but you can’t have done even one hour of paid or unpaid in the four weeks prior to the survey. Nor can you be discouraged by the absence of available jobs either — you must have applied for something in the previous four weeks — and you must be available to start immediately.”

This explains why – for the ABS – unemployment is only 6.2%. The Lockdown by Scott Morrison announced on the 13th of March began on March 16th – after his Church’s Pentecostal conference was over. Closures of pubs, clubs, cafes and restaurants weren’t mandated till the following Monday. Further closures of Auction houses, real estate auctions, eating in shopping centre food courts, amusement parks, play centres, etc., were not decided on, till later that week. Wage subsidy packages were decided on, by the end of March.

So, given people have to be unemployed for four weeks to begin to registering to the ABS as “unemployed”, many former employees, would not have even been designated as “unemployed” in April. Also one needs to factor in, that Jobkeeper “hid” people who were later fired in April or thereafter.

International vs domestic

The ABS unemployment methodology is often criticised for the wrong reasons. What people don’t understand is the methodology championed by ILO that ABS has a context – international comparisons. That is the correct context. The “I” in ILO stands for International not Intra-national.

As a stand-alone domestic measure, it is fundamentally flawed—realised by the concession that there is an element of “hidden unemployment” that is not measured by the ABS methods. There is also a concept of “discouraged job seekers” and “underutilisation”. All these additional descriptions are an admission that the ABS does not wholistically measure Australian unemployment. The ILO standard was never designed to be used to measure the internal or domestic unemployment of any country. Alan Austin often uses ABS statistics to compare nations but continues to demonstrate that, there is more to Australian unemployment than just the 5+% the ABS has been claiming in recent years.

Australian domestic employment

The ABS does not adequately measure real domestic unemployment. The government frequently engages with these measures to deceive the public as to the actual extent of domestic unemployment. This is where the non-internationally comparative Roy Morgan’s statistics should be used. They are a far more accurate measure of real domestic unemployment in Australia. Roy Morgan is quite capable of defending its methodology. Comparing Roy Morgan and the ABS shows that the ABS has become increasingly misaligned.

Roy Morgan vs ABS statistics on unemployment

Charting Roy Morgan’s employment statistics for over a decade and adding the Department of Employment’s IVI statistics for job vacancies reveals several long-standing trends.

  1. Full-time work has been falling as a portion of Employment in Australia, and Part-time has been rising.
  2. The rate of entry into the workforce is not matched by employment growth. Unemployment now at 15.3% from 6.3% in April 13 years ago as illustrated by the gap between workforce and employment.
  3. There have never been enough job vacancies to fill the unemployed’s needs for work.
  4. There was no robustness in the economy for jobs to survive any emergency that might disrupt it.

Workforce, employment and job vacancies in Australia over 13 years

This graph shows a stark drop in full-time employment when pandemic lockdown occurred, but not so for part-time employment. While these are early days to track significant reductions, there is another explanation.

Corporation’s human capital is often hard and expensive to acquire. Expertise that marches out the door from an enterprise can be irreplaceable, especially in high-end jobs. Drilling down into the IVI stats for job vacancies reveals numeric disparities between entry-level jobs and highly skilled positions.

The combination of managers, professionals, technicians, social workers, clericals, etc., represent the largest portion of job vacancies whereas labourers, machinery operators, drivers and low skilled jobs are a much smaller proportion. I’ve outlined these proportions previously via Anglicare’s Jobs Availability Snapshot.

Shifting full-time workers to part-time helps employers retaining critical staff when their business recovers. The ACA promoted this as an option for keeping staff, and the JobKeeper legislation enables that approach.

Australian under and unemployment

Still, where is our recovery going to come from when you consider the figures of this graph on under and unemployment and job vacancies? Consider:

  1. Given the enormity of under and unemployment (24.7%), how can our economy recover?
  2. Given the trend in falling job vacancies to less than half what it was at the beginning of the year, from where is employment going to come?
  3. Given Australia has been in a per-capita recession since late 2018 where is the pre-existing economic robustness for a functional recovery?
  4. Given the previous falls in business & consumer confidence, Wage rates and household saving, and rises in CPI, Utility pricing, through household debt where is the cushion for a soft landing?

Under & unemployment and the poor job vacancy opportunities in Australia

The methodology for unemployment measurements during the great depression of the 1930s was different from how we measure today. Pointing out that unemployment reached a record high of around 30% in 1932, is problematic as we are not using comparable measures. That hasn’t stopped the media from making the comparison, and it is not that far fetched, given the enormity of the problem.

Poor economic indicators for Australia leading into 2020

This article was originally published on Australia Awaken – Ignite your Torches.

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Pete-The-Not-So-Great’s Info Wars

By Jane Salmon

Watching the lush tv series “The Great” on Stan, we are reminded that decadent 18th century European despots like Peter III and the nation’s shadow religious regimes were truly threatened by free thought and speech. The arrival of secular literacy and then printing presses gradually brought political debate and satire to repressed Mother Russia.

Any with a yen for controlling and directing our current political and economic systems are finding free expression on the internet a burden in the same way.

Access to accurate information Is certainly controversial and a two-way street.

The government wants to know accurately when we have been in contact with Coronavirus carriers.

The Federal Government concurrently seeks to staunch some resident’s rights to secrecy and limit certain types of information getting out.

Political transparency is a perennial issue. Major parties eschew a powerful Federal ICAC. Whistleblowers are threatened. Spooks seem to be on steroids over Witness K.

Proposed security and intelligence laws would, if enacted, ensure that computer passwords be given up on threat of prison.

In another swag of laws before Senate, Immigration detainees are to be lumped in with criminals and deprived of mobile phone access. “So what?” some say.

What these laws have in common is Peter Dutton, who heads up the Home Affairs super ministry. Peter is the Not-So-Great Super Tsar seeking to staunch scrutiny in the name of Security.

Governing used not to be quite so hard. 18th Century Tsars certainly found life heaps easier before literacy and printing. Super Minister Dutton is similarly challenged by phones, the internet and facts.

(In fact, “Peter Dutton the musical” might include a glowing phone).

“The Great” tele-series colourfully depicts early PR wars against political commentary in 18th Century Russia. The first lie or narrative circulated (as to how Peter III’s war with Sweden ended) is meant to be the one that sticks. Leaders saw that timing was essential.

Any blurring of national security measures as applied by traditional spooks and the conventions of defence secrecy is no accident. Defence is getting more say in the rules applied.

“On water matters” is a phrase used by the navy in border control. It can mask a multitude of asylum seeker processing events (good and bad) at sea. In other words, slap a naval “D Notice” on anything embarrassing and the public will not know whether you are throwing children overboard Tampa style, running modern prison hulks or turning back fishermen in leaky lifeboats.

Former ABF head Roman Quadvlieg still loves this stuff.

It has also suited Border Force to focus on rotten apples rather than sterling heroes in any immigrant cohort. Labelling refugees a disease-raddled inundation of criminals and terrorists has been convenient onshore.

It backfired offshore. The February 2014 fatal Manus RPC attack, in fact, came from local guards, civilians and militia who felt threatened by the massive impact of regional processing and the introduction of these maligned foreigners (as well, perhaps, as mounting evidence of their ongoing economic subservience to Australia).

Then Immigration Minister Scotty (from Marketing) Morrison immediately asserted that asylum seekers were rioting outside the perimeter of Manus Regional Processing centre compound.

Fortunately witnesses who had internet access and some mobile phones (as did Manus immigration officials, bureaucrats, guards). Morrison’s lies about the death of Reza Berati simply unravelled. Berati was murdered in his room.

Xenophobes continue to blame asylum seekers for everything. Others in the community looked harder. Advocates grasped the value of phones to detainees whose vulnerability offshore tore at their consciences. Shame is a great motivator. Funds were raised In Australia for both phones and credit every month for around 80 months. Empathic pensioners saved the means to buy handsets.

Phones gave ordinary Aussies the opportunity to hear refugee narratives first hand. They could assess character critically for themselves. Luckily, once phone access was established, independent media and social media shared news, privacy issues notwithstanding.

It was clear that phones were a lifeline that could inform independent doctors, call families (often still in war zones), sort essential supplies, disrupt neglect, transmit world news or the soft coo of a child, provide counselling or nurture new hobbies.

Events offshore were seen by friends, journalists and family members in real time. Australian nurses acted as remote birth support for women in labour on Nauru (where the nurse doubled as the cleaner). This is complicated by the prevalence of female genital mutilation among those detained. Mums for Refugees have also acted as birth partners onshore for women they got to meet by phone.

Immigration suddenly gained an $8m PR budget.

Only journalists sympathetic to Immigration narratives had access to Nauru. The lack of an adequate Nauru police response and Chris Kenny‘s intrusions upon the privacy of a pregnant Somali survivor of a vicious rape curdled the blood of Dutton calls “mad fucking witch” back in Australia.

When, according to Behrouz Boochani, Manus men were isolated in a windowless punishment container labelled “Chauka” or abused by guards, detainees conveyed the impacts. When locals shot at them or hit them with iron bars and machetes, there were memorable pictures recorded with shaky hands and quavering voices.

Suicidal children were photographed on Nauru. One searing image is the neat red chunk a machete took out of a man’s arm. (Pic too gory?)

During 13 detention deaths offshore, mobiles were used to inform relatives, mourn, arrange funerals, share news, show conditions or critique an impersonal government approach.

Refugee supporters sat up through the night talking to depressed or confused men in a mixture of languages. It helped that key supporters had counselling, nursing, medical or social work training. (They in turn sometimes needed trauma counselling themselves).

The Geneva Convention, its amendments and international laws to which we are signatories would have it that access to friends, lawyers and family is the right of detainees. Australia has wavered in its commitment to this.

Trips to hospital in Port Moresby, Taiwan or onshore would belatedly occur. Usually main medical issues remained untreated. There is no question that all this was as expensive as it was erratic.

Some less-depressed detainees learned new crafts and skills via their phones. Several doggedly composed and recorded music or shared their paintings. One man crocheted rugs that now grace museums. 3am was when Behrouz Boochani would transmit refined pellets of news via WhatsApp that became his film and his book, lyrically translated by Omid Tofighian.

Robust friendships forged in hardship have survived challenges and changes. Various faiths and cultures have been shared or discarded. Rebadged security firms came and went. The RPC was replaced by “freedom” to venture out during fixed hours.

People were shuffled around and slowly vetted by “safe third countries” such as the US or Canada.

In 2017 Australia’s liability for detention was palmed off to PNG.

For many months of 2019, in Bomana Prison (owned by PNG but funded by Australia), some 50 detainees had no phones. They were starved, bullied, lied to, denied property and some were deported without witnesses. They became more withdrawn. Even treating private Pacific International Hospital (funded by Aus taxpayers) maintained their dreadful isolation.

Families of detainees were frantic for news, while traumatic damage to some held in Bomana has been permanent and is probably irreversible. It took repeated appeals to UNHCR and Red Cross by locals and advocates to secure the release of the sickest.

Pending laws stalled in the Senate, the Migration Amendment (Prohibiting Items in Immigration Detention Facilities) Bill 2020 – Parliament of Australia, the National Justice Project has submitted Federal Court injunctions against the ban on mobile phones in Australian detention several times. This was usually done stealthily near Christmas or Easter … under the mask of managing Covid-19.

In fact the new laws might also be applied to phones outside detention. Does this mean APODs or also activist phones?

The powers Dutton seeks claims in his amendments to the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation Act 1979 aim to force the sharing of data under threat of imprisonment for those who refuse to share phone or computer passwords. Some states already lock up ten year olds.

When Dutton was denied freedom by Aussie courts to mute asylum seekers offshore, he handed those detainees over to PNG which has a different set of political vulnerabilities, values and laws.

My fear is that this is how Dutton would have Australian citizen life run, too. As detainees say, we are one human family. The truism that how governments treat migrants stateless people is how they would treat us all was never more relevant.

We should learn from Manus, Nauru and Bomana. We should learn from the limited access to internet of Priya, Nades and children on Christmas Island.

Ex-copper Peter Dutton seems threatened by the internet and by dissent among such colleagues as Coleman or Quadvlieg. His actions betray resentment of free speech. He avoids independent journalists. He may even dislike vocal citizens having a full set of human rights. Then there is the mire of contractor corruption revealed through internet searches and detainee reports.

Under Sovereign Borders, many refugees who came to Australia for help by boat have been stymied by uncertainty for almost 8 years. They have also been slandered as terrorists, driven mad with despair, bored, bullied, starved, deprived of Vitamin D and weakened by various forms of neglect or excruciatingly slow treatment. Some of them have also been isolated indoors for far, far longer than anyone quarantined for ‘Rona risk.

Onshore there are quiet detainees who have languished for up to 11 years.

The AFP raids on journos illustrate the folly of concentrating political and security power in one “super” ministry. That Labor voted repeatedly to enable Dutton to become the sinister overlord he now is, damns them too.

Dutton also teaches refugees that speak publicly in the “Home to Bilo“ or Medevac campaigns they will be punished by prolonging their detention ordeals.

Secrecy even allows him to give foreign high rollers “special visa concessions”, to visit casinos. Categories of legal worker visas aside, we all know many “invaders” are economic and invited. (The spectre of inundation is applied very selectively).

Ministerial Discretion has been stealthily used some 3000 times by Dutton. But not for the Bilo family parked on Christmas Island. They were too loud.

No-one wants boats to resume. It’s too risky. But we do want to see humanitarian solutions to the global refugee problem. We need to take our fair share.

For detainees who have already suffered for 7 or 11 years, any

PRISON is PRISON: whether in the Preston Mantra without sunlight for 9 months, on Christmas Island without full internet or in a crowded formal Immigration Detention Centre such as MITA, BITA, Villawood or Yongah Hill.

However, detainee ordeals under Peter Ruddock and in Bomana Immigration Transit Centre in Port Moresby show, removal of phones can unleash a whole new level of hell.

During the distraction of COVID-19, our Federal Government seeks to usher in laws that will lose Australia whatever is left of journalistic inquiry plus remove mobile phone access.

The Post-Anzac Australia that school children studied was kind to strangers. We had fought the good fight with all our might. We had boundless plains to share. We had seen prisoners of war emerge from SE Asian chain gangs, camps and prisons after the defeat of the Japanese. We mourned the giants those broken ex-prisoners once were and abhored their abusers. According to myth, we were decent, spontaneous and fair. Larrikins that we were, we did not recategorise harmless people as “dangerous“ just so security contractors could grab more moolah.

In fantasy Australia, we did not use ex-Afghanistan vets and counter-terrorism experts to ensure that a person pole-axed with depression, agonising gall stones plus resignation syndrome was denied a packet of dates or a crisp new t-shirt in hospital at Christmas.

We did not conceal the whereabouts of detainees or migrant hospital patients from friends or loved ones.

We did not deny incarcerated folk a chat with mum or an internet music search.

We did not block grannies trying to comfort the suicidal (24/7 in the absence of hope).

We did not send refugees back to Myanmar during a holocaust.

We let people reach their lawyers at mutually convenient times rather than at the whim of guards or queues for phone cards and landlines.

Our team was not the sort to delay cancer scans or treatment by deadly years. Yet this and do many daily micro aggressions have repeatedly happened.

All this lumps us in with many other human rights abusers: just not the most bloody of them yet. Aussies are no longer moral leaders. To me, no facts and no truth means no real freedom.

The porous nature of Aussie ocean borders was indeed an embarrassment to defence and, more importantly, a terrible mass drowning hazard. Increasing asylum seeker intake and funding regional processing queues seems preferable to indefinite detention. It could hardly be more expensive.

Dutton’s latest security and immigration law changes are not just votes about whether criminals get phone access or whether detainees can push back against lies and cruelty.
They are about whether Aussie citizens will have human rights and freedom of information, too.

They represent a frontier with totalitarianism which we should not cross.

As with climate, many engage out of concern about the future that our children will inherit.

It’s time the rest of us looked up from “reality“ tv’s confected desert island survival contests to see what is happening right in front of us.

Security Tsar Pete’s plans are not so “Great”.

Note: Migration Amendment (Prohibiting Items in Immigration Detention Facilities) Bill 2020 [Provisions]

“On 14 May 2020 the Senate referred the provisions of the Migration Amendment (Prohibiting Items in Immigration Detention Facilities) Bill 2020 to the Legal and Constitutional Affairs Legislation Committee for inquiry and report by 5 August 2020.

The deadline for submissions to the inquiry is 11 June 2020.”

Your participation is encouraged.

Manus, the secretly filmed documentary

Manus: “Remember one thing, we are human beings”

 

Jane Salmon once bought a mobile phone for a bloke offshore called Behrouz Boochani.

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Is China a bully?

By Ad astra

Is China a bully? If you stopped the average person in the street and asked this question, the answer would probably be a resounding ‘YES’.

Why?

A bully is defined as: Someone who habitually seeks to harm or intimidate those whom they perceive as vulnerable.

So how could China be a bully? ‘China’ is the name of a country, a landmass in Asia, even a collection of people, mainly Chinese in ethnicity. How could any of these entities be a bully?

Yet the perception that China is a bully is widespread. Why?

The average person would recall that very recently China threatened Australia with retaliation over its public push to have an inquiry into the origin, progress and management of the coronavirus pandemic, COVID-19, which China’s leaders interpreted as Australia pointing the finger of blame at China for this disaster and how it handled it. Now that there is world wide consensus about the need for such an inquiry, the threats have quietened, and China’s ruling class have endorsed it.

Some would quote the words of representatives of China: ambassadors and trade officials, who have made angry threats of trade retaliation against our government because it had sought an inquiry. China’s ambassador to Australia was particularly strident and nasty in his condemnation and his unconcealed threats of retaliation.

Others would quote the savage threats of trade sanctions against Australian barley growers, based on the spurious accusation that they were guilty of ‘dumping’ into China’s markets. This is seen for what it is: retaliation for our government’s uncompromising stand on an enquiry, indeed its leading role.

Now China is threatening to limit coal imports from Australian coal exporters. Government authorities in Beijing have directed state-owned power plants to purchase domestic product instead. Analysts fear this could also lead China to delay cargoes of Australia’s most lucrative export, iron ore.

Even as this piece was being written China’s National People’s Congress approved a controversial ‘security’ law that will override Hong Kong’s laws. Pro-democracy activists fear that pushing through the law will mean ‘the end of Hong Kong’ – that is, the effective end of its autonomy and its freedoms. If this is not bullying, what is it?

So there is bullying going on, no matter how you care to define it.

But as we’ve hinted that China as defined above could hardly be labelled a bully, who is it that has created this widely-held perception?

It comes down to the people who control the governing body: ‘The People’s Republic of China’, which operates in a framework of a socialist republic run by a single party.

The top man is the President, Xi Jinping. Elected by the National People’s Congress, he is simultaneously the general secretary of the Communist Party of China, and thereby the top leader in the one party system. He has held this position for seven years. So he is the one who controls the Party and the government of China. His subordinates follow his lead unquestionably.

If anyone is guilty of bullying, it is he, not the Chinese people.

If other evidence of his bullying propensity is needed, take his attitude to the Spratly Islands, located off the coast of the Philippines and Malaysia, claimed by both of these nations as well as Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan. Xi insists that China has sovereignty over these islands and has aggressively taken control of them to build military bases.

To highlight his military capability, Xi has ordered his navy to patrol the South China Sea, which encompass an area of around 3,500,000 square kilometres from the Karimata Strait, situated between Sumatra and Java to the west and Kalimantan to the east and the Strait of Malacca separating Indonesia and Malaysia, to the Strait of Taiwan, and in doing so China’s control over the strategic Zhongsha Islands. It claims all the islands, reefs, and shoals within the South China Sea.

The South China Sea is of great strategic importance; one-third of the world’s shipping passes through it, carrying over $3 trillion in trade each year. It contains lucrative fisheries in Scarborough Shoal, which are crucial for the food security of millions in Southeast Asia. Huge oil and gas reserves are believed to lie beneath its seabed.

The ‘demarcation line’ used by the People’s Republic of China to define its sovereignty over this area is named: ‘the nine-dash line, or the ten-dash line or even the eleven-dash line’. It refers an undefined, vaguely located, but not internationally recognised, inverted U-shaped line that China itself has drawn in the South China Sea, shown as green in this image..

So whichever way you care to spin China’s attitude and approach to sovereignty, it is hard to escape the conclusion that China is indeed a bully, headed by the bully-in-chief, Xi Jinping.

But there is matching bully across the Atlantic. You know who he is. Writing in in The Age, George Megalogenis says: The bully that is supposed to have our back, Washington, is often indistinguishable from the bully who now threatens our economy, Beijing. If the Chinese continue to pick off our second-tier exports to teach us a lesson for speaking out, perhaps Trump might want to open up his economy to Australia to compensate us for our losses? But this is not how Trump sees the world. He’d like Americans to buy local, and to sell their surpluses to the rest of the world. A world where China cuts out Australia, and leaves us to bargain with a protectionist US, is not one that serves our interests. This cartoon says it all.

Make up you own mind who the bullies are.

This article was originally published on The Political Sword

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The killing of America

By Christian Marx

America is teetering on the edge of collapse and possible civil war. How did it come to this?

Every problem the U.S. currently faces can be traced back to capitalism.

America has always been based around a rugged, dog eat dog type of individualism. A Darwinian survival of the fittest mentality. This is the only country in the Western world without socialised healthcare. Tens of millions can`t afford to go to a hospital, and many that do, find themselves bankrupted by hundreds of thousands for major surgery.

The corporate elites run both major parties. Together with their toxic media, they can rule the masses with an iron fist, primarily through disinformation and lies. Confused, frightened and uneducated people cannot vote for their best interests.

The current disclocation engulfing America is the senseless murder of an unarmed black man, George Floyd. Yet another thuggish cop has murdered a person of colour. The anger erupted when NOTHING was done. The cop was only sacked after country wide outrage, and now has been charged with 3rd degree murder. However, there is every chance he will get off scot free, like so many killers before him.

Capitalism is the underlying root of the problem. Firstly, George was arrested on suspicion of a forged $20 bill. This in itself is a symptom of the crippling poverty engulfing much of America.

45 MILLION Americans are living below the poverty line.

This poverty has been systematically increasing since the Reagan years. One of the biggest causes of poverty has been the free trade deals, particularly the North American Free Trade Agreements (NAFTA) which gutted local manufacturing and industry, in favour of offshore jobs at third world labour rates.

Compounding this is the complete decimation of state services, such as food banks, healthcare, education programs, etc.

Poorer areas, especially places with a high black populace are the hardest hit. There is also a systemic attack on blacks and other minorities through the hard-right lens of the media. Narratives are shaped via deceptive and negative stereotypes. The black man is portrayed as a criminal and dangerous individual, even when he has done no wrong, and is merely standing up against injustice.

Compare the vastly different narratives to the white libertarians who invaded congress with semi automatic guns, versus the black protests against police brutality. The white libertarian militias were largely praised in the media for standing up to “state oppression,” while the black protesters were scorned and mocked as “dangerous thugs.” More reading here.

There is an underlying media bias of whites being “good” and blacks “bad.” This of course ties into the division needed in order for capitalism to continue to benefit the primarily wealthy white establishment and to neglect the needs and rights of black people and other marginalised minorities.

Sure, there has been a black president, but as Dr Cornel West explained:

“We tried blacks in high places. Too often our black politicians, professional class…become too accommodated to the capitalist economy, and too accommodated to celebrity, status, power and all that superficial stuff.”

In other words, capitalism does not just corrupt rich white people, it can drive a wedge between different classes of black people. Those that are permitted into the club of politicians and wealthy donors, themselves become corrupted and turn their backs on their poorer brothers and sisters. Sadly, capitalist greed transcends colour, creed and cultural backgrounds, which makes it incredibly insidious.

Compounding this is the constant censorship and omission of scientists and legitimate sociologists, linguists, and other intellectuals from the progressive sphere. They just don`t get a platform. If one dares to challenge the inequalities of capitalism or its multitude of problems, including environmental, sociological, cultural, or geopolitical, one is either completely de-platformed, or in extreme cases attacked and ridiculed, for example Julian Assange, for daring to expose the murderous actions of the U.S government and its imperialist war machine.

In summing up, capitalism has thrust a dagger into the heart of America. Capitalism has essentially eaten itself. Greed has pushed it to achieve greater and greater profits into fewer and fewer hands. This results in huge community dislocation, poverty, neglect, violence, the suffering of millions, and racial scapegoating by the mainstream media.

The more people are affected and left behind by capitalism the greater the resistance against the establishment. Paradoxically, the greater the resistance, the harsher the state brutality will be. The profits of the wealthy will be maintained, no matter how violent. This is what end stage capitalism looks like. Fascism can be defined as the merging of the state and private capital. This is the killing of America.

Christian Marx is a political and social activist interested in making the world a fairer place. He has a Bachelor of Social Science and has a keen interest in sociology, politics and history. He was one of the organisers of the March in March rallies in Melbourne and is the founder of the progressive news and information site: Don`t Look At This Page.

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The Circle of Life …

By Christian Marx

“Let me tell you about my youth,” the farrowed brow of the old man beamed with sweat and the rugged complexion of a life well lived. His eyes were tired, yet there lingered a sparkling intelligence within.

The boy who was no more than 15 sat transfixed. The old man was a regular fixture of the slums of the metropolis once known as ‘Melbourne.’ The old man motioned out towards the ruins of the old city. “I remember a time when every man had a job, and was able to support a family of 4 on a labourer’s wage. Everything was manufactured in this country, there were jobs aplenty, and casual work was unheard of.” The boy’s eyes widened with a mixture of shock and awe. “WOOOOOOOOWWWW,” he let out a long sound, with his mouth agape, resembling a large yawn. “How was that even possible?” The boy murmured in incredulity.

His own father had not ever had a full-time job in his 50 years. In fact, employment was now so scarce that only those connected to the political/media apparatus were employed through connections. 95% of the populace were forced to subsist on food scraps, run down soup kitchens and hunting kangaroos and other large game, which now freely roamed the shuttered decaying buildings in the citadel.

The old man continued: “We once had a group called ‘unions.’ These were workers’ collectives who fought for good wages and conditions, against the rapacious capitalists. Unions were the way we worked together in order to secure our full-time jobs. The capitalists destroyed these unions through their media apparatus. Unfortunately, the majority believed the propaganda from these corrupt media puppets.”

The boy had heard of these unions before, but only from the low flying media drones and their 3D holographs. Unions were to be feared and were the reason the majority were poor, according to these media drones.

Nobody trusted the lies of the ‘nepostists’ anymore. They lived behind a gated community, encircled by a 3 metre high wall. By all accounts they lived in opulent decadence, though their numbers were less than 5,000. They maintained their power through automated muscle. Large silver robots standing approximately 15 feet tall constantly surveilling the terrain beyond the gated community. Sometimes the robots randomly killed the poor for sport, and to serve as a warning to would be agitators against this corporate hegemony.

“Tell me more about the old times,” the boys imagination of a better world engulfed him … the old man continued: “Once we had large organic-like structures called trees. They pumped out oxygen and protected us from the harsh rays of the sun. We had an abundance of water, and were free of disease.” The man continued: “We had health care for everybody … this was financed by a small tax on income, which provided a universal system for all.”

The boys eyes widened. He could not imagine such a time when the sick were treated. The field beyond the ruins was littered with the corpses of the poor. They were left to rot. If it wasn’t for the organised groups from the shanty towns, their flesh would decay and the crows would pick at their bleaching bones…

How did all this come to pass? The boy was close to tears … The old man stared deep into the boys eyes. “Humanity turned against those who tried to warn us. The intelligent, the rebels, the educated, the socialists were all rounded up and executed. It was World War 2 all over again … only this time the rich got their media puppets to turn the less-educated and those with no empathy into brutal killing machines …

When did all this begin? The boy asked. The old man continued: ”The beginning of the holocaust had its first origins in the early 21st century. The bloodletting began soon after the great virus of 2020. It was called the ‘coronavirus,’ and it impacted the profits of the very wealthy. They then decided to unleash a final solution. It was called ‘Neoliberalism.’ I was just a young man when this began.” Tears slowly welled up in the usually stoic man’s eyes. This old man of 75 remembered the dystopia. He quietly said to the boy: Sadly history is destined to repeat. Perhaps this is the circle of life …”

 

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Give us a break

By 2353NM

A week or so ago, we discussed the union bashing disguised as concern for ‘essential workers’ from LNP MPs Andrew Laming and Peter Dutton. Unfortunately, the pitiful behaviours exhibited by these two LNP politicians is not reserved to the outer suburbs of Brisbane.

It is on the record that the Premiers of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria convinced the ‘national cabinet’ to impose tougher social restrictions on the Australian community earlier than others wanted. This followed the experts’ advice that social distancing was the correct method to ensure that our health care system was not overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases. In comparison to a lot of other ‘first world’ countries, the strategy was successful, leading to us now experiencing a gradual relaxation of pandemic restrictions.

On 8 May 2020, Prime Minister Morrison released what he called ‘the roadmap’ to a reduction in social restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Morrison said in the announcement that

Australian governments are taking a measured approach. Our three-step plan provides a pathway for jurisdictions to move towards COVID safe communities in a way that best suits their individual circumstances. States and territories are able to move between the steps on the pathway at different times, in line with their current public health situation and local conditions. [Emphasis added]

When Federal Education Minister Dan Tehan let loose on the ABC’s Insiders on May 3, Queensland schools were open only as a last resort for children of ‘essential workers who couldn’t make other arrangements’ and New South Wales and Victorian schools were closed. However Tehan certainly didn’t let the facts get in the way of a good story

Tehan: So, he said that when those seven national priorities were put out, and they had two very important conditions to them. Now, the question to Dan Andrews, is, sure, take a sledgehammer to defeating the coronavirus. But, why are you taking a sledgehammer, also, to your school system? When Mark McGowan in Western Australia, when Michael Gunner in the Northern Territory, when Steven Marshall in South Australia, have taken a sledgehammer to the coronavirus, but haven’t to their education system.

Speers: But he is receiving this advice from his chief health officer, that I just quoted. Should he ignore that?

Tehan:` That same chief health officer is on the national medical expert panel, and that national medical expert panel says that it’s safe for children to be at school, and it’s safe for teachers to be at school, with the right protocols. So, why don’t we …

The differentiation wouldn’t have anything to do with the New South Wales Premier being a member of the Liberal Party and the Queensland Premier, while a member of the ALP, doesn’t have a large popularity buffer over the LNP contender would it? Before you answer, consider this News.com.au report on a statement by Victorian federal Liberal Party backbencher Tim Wilson

As other states and territories took their first tentative steps into life after the pandemic, Victoria held firm.

The cautious approach has won the Andrews Government more support, but predictably it has also attracted detractors.

Among them is Victorian federal Liberal MP Tim Wilson.

And Wilson is quoted in the same article as saying

“The burden and the responsibility then has to be on Dan Andrews, when other states are allowing people to go and visit their mums on Mother’s Day, why can’t we go and visit in Victoria our mums on Mother’s Day?

“Why can’t we send our kids to school? Why are businesses being unnecessarily punished longer than in other states? And he has to come out and articulate that case and take responsibility for it.

Victorian Premier Andrews is not doing much different to New South Wales Premier Berejiklian or Queensland Premier Palaszczuk — primarily because their states have the majority of COVID-19 cases. And for the record, Victoria was still managing clusters of infection in mid-May, unlike the other states so logically Andrews is being cautious. There is nothing wrong with caution; the Prime Minister — a member of the same political party as Tim Wilson — flagged that different states would take action at different times.

Of course it’s political point scoring. And they don’t just do it to ‘the other mob’, they ‘eat’ their own as well! Recently the ALP MP representing Eden-Monaro, Mike Kelly, retired for health reasons. Before Kelly actually resigned, the media was suggesting that NSW Deputy Premier (and State National Party Leader) John Barilaro would be the conservative candidate for the potential by-election. By 4 May, the story had changed

Mr Barilaro said he had not seen Liberal Party polling, but claimed Nationals research showed he could win the byelection, but he was not prepared to trigger a showdown for the seat against [NSW Transport Minister and Liberal Party member] Mr [Andrew] Constance.

“Andrew and I were never ever going to race or compete against each other. That is something we both honoured,” Mr Barilaro said.

“The polling clearly will show Andrew can win the seat and it clearly shows I can win the seat, but at the end of the day it’s not about winning the seat it’s about what’s right for the people of Eden-Monaro.”

And later on in the same report

“If anyone wants to try and put a wedge through Andrew and I good luck to them, but I know the friendship I have with Andrew.”

Constance did actually announce he would be a candidate for all of about half a day before announcing on a local radio station that he wasn’t going to do it (that’s another story altogether). While Barilaro might get on with Constance, there were clearly other factors in play for Barilaro’s withdrawal.

Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell has obtained an explosive text exchange between the two men in which Mr Barilaro says [Nationals Federal Leader and Deputy Prime Minister] McCormack was “threatened” by his plans to run. “Don’t hide behind the “members will choose the candidate’ rubbish, as you were the only one saying such lines,”

Mr Barilaro wrote in the leaked messages. “Don’t you think my branches would have backed me in? “To feel threatened by me clearly shows you have failed your team and failed as a leader. “You will never be acknowledged by me as our leader. You aren’t. You never will be. “The Nats had a chance to create history, to change momentum, and you had a candidate that was prepared to risk everything to make it happen. “What did you risk? Nothing. “Hope you are proud of yourself.”

You also have to feel sorry for whoever the Coalition does put up as a candidate in Eden-Monaro. Apart from the head start the ALP has on the campaign, why would you vote for a third or subsequent choice candidate representing a party that has a heated public slanging match (the obscene text messages within National Party ranks have deliberately not been linked in this article) over who should be the candidate?

Give us a break — we don’t need the points scoring or the second guessing. What we do need is a demonstration by politicians that they can work together to create benefit for all; without picking over the spoils of victory before the battle has even started and far less ideology for the sake of it.

What do you think?

This article was originally published on The Political Sword

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Not so Covid Safe

By John Haly

The CovidSafe app has triggered innumerable privacy and security concerns amidst the public, who are already deeply suspicious of a government that has eroded public trust. Amongst recent instances of the diminishment of our trust are:

Despite the trust deficit, the Australian Government has spent $1.5m on CovidSafe, including over $700,000 for Amazon to host the data.

But is the issue Trust or Competence?

The lack of trust in this Government’s promotion of this CovidSafe App may be justifiable on their record on privacy and security. Still, you have to keep in mind their frequent displays of incompetence in science and technology. Remember Abbott and Brandis trying to tell the public what metadata was? Remember Malcolm Turnbull trying to come up with a better NBN? Recall both the Australian Census online or the Centrelink portal failures were falsely blamed on convenient DOS attacks? Attacking them on untrustworthiness can be done. Still, it is easier to criticise the App’s lack of suitability both technically and statistically. So I am going to stay away from the privacy and security issue and ask the question, is the CovidSafe App fit for purpose?

The Physics of Radio Signals

My analysis begins with a comment in a recent ABC article concerning the software bugs and issues of the COVIDSafe contact-tracing app:

“ … “Because mobile phone device models are different in Bluetooth strength and how they operate, all contacts within Bluetooth range are noted on the user’s device,” a DTA spokesperson said. …”

Bugs and issues can be fixed (although not in time before lockdown lift begins), but there are limits to what our science can discern about the physics of radio signals, like Bluetooth.

Let me ask you, dear reader, a few questions.

Do you live in the country, city, an apartment or have anyone who lives within 10 metres of you? Do you stand in a social distancing line keeping the required 1.5m while waiting to get into a shop? The answer to the last question ought to be yes, but bear with me. If you are within 10 metres – or in right circumstances, perhaps twice that – then you and a stranger or a known neighbour can be tagged with “associating” because this App uses Bluetooth to detect other phones.

Before you protest that it is supposed to be when you are within 1.5 metres, keep in mind using BlueTooth for localisation is a very well researched field of study. Bluetooth and other narrowband radio systems can only reach an accuracy of several metres at best without accompanying geolocation or triangulation of wifi data (a strategy later IEEE papers raise as attempts to overcome localisation inaccuracies). Naturally adding geolocation data, raises all the apparent privacy and monitoring concerns (which I said I was not going to go into). This App, for now, doesn’t use geolocation except on the Android/Google version of the App in a limited capacity.

 

Bluetooth Ranges by class dependancies

 

Signal strength isn’t a good indicator of distance between two connected BlueTooth devices, because it is too subject to environmental conditions. Is there a person between the devices? How is the owner holding his/her device? What is its proximity to metal plates that impede the signal path? Are there any other radio frequency reflecting surfaces? Is there a wall? Concrete walls will attenuate the radio signal. Using BlueTooth is essentially wholly inaccurate, and it has absolutely no sense of direction. Much like our Government, but I digress. Whereas the virus can’t traverse walls and floors (unless it is brought into enclosed spaces by people), Bluetooth can. Generically for a distance of approximately 10 metres. Although my testing on a five-year-old iPhone 5 running iOS 9 can make a connection from nearly 20 metres through two building walls or doors. So Bluetooth can’t tell when you are 1.5 metres away.

 

Bluetooth Ranges are extending not contracting.

 

Meaning two neighbours sitting alone watching TV in their lounge room – according to their respective phones running the App – have been in close contact for hours if your binge-watching a good series. Let’s not even discuss how long you and your neighbours have spent “sleeping” together, while alone in your adjacent houses or apartments with your phones on the charger by your beds. For all you know, anybody’s phone might be standing in the adjacent store, approximately ten or more metres away but with whom you never interact. The Government App will be rife with false positives without you even knowing who these “contacts” are.

Google Phone providing geolocation permissions

But alternatively, a passing stranger’s viral cough load, can in seconds, infect you. So can contact from a surface contaminated with coronavirus. Someone coughing into your face is undetectable by your mutual phones, unless he spends 15 minutes in your proximity, apologising. At least if that happens, you have plenty of time to ask for name and contact information for the contact tracers, when one of you gets unfortunate news after being tested. Touching an infected surface and forgetting to wash your hands before shovelling food into your mouth, means the time between contact and infection, can be hours, but either the wrong or no phone, might be blamed.

The App can detect none of these scenarios that tell you when another person with the same App, has a phone. None of these things will trigger a 15 minute Bluetooth alert. It is not just false positives that it will generate, but it simply can not detect anything other than another phone. Let me reiterate. It is a Phone detection facility, not a virus detection facility!!

The Lottery Probability

Now let’s discuss some numbers! The ABC reported on the 6th of May, that 5 million phones that had uploaded the App. The Government reported on the same day we had conducted 688K tests Australia-wide for the virus. This lifted our testing stats to 2.6% of the population, presuming not too many people have gone in for repeat tests.

Our consequent testing regime has risen (as of 21st of May) to 1,137,684 tests or 4.4% of the Australian population of 25.695 million. Simultaneously, the upload of CovidSafe has slowed to only 5.87 million by the 19th of May. So 22% of the population (a long way from Morrison’s desire for 40%) with an App that can only potentially detect 4.4% of the population, and a lot of these tests will be negative – for now. Only 0.65% of all those tests have been positive.

 

The Covid infection Status in Australia as of 6th of May

 

So let’s rephrase that.

So 22% of the population – if paired with mutual phones running a working version of the CovidSafe App – can confirm the 0.65% of 4.4% of our population, has coronavirus. To be fair, it might have a remote possibility of identifying someone with an infection, but the probability of my winning the lottery has a better chance. Let’s not forget the only alert the App – in theory – sends, is AFTER someone has been infected and have informed authorities and a tracing team has triggered the alarm, which, if they have infected you, is a little too late. Note I used phrases like, “might have” and “in theory.” Sadly as of writing this, the capacity of the App to do any of this is non-existent.

 

The Covid infection Status in Australia as of 21st of May

Operability

As of the 19th of May, no State in Australia has reported any use of the CovidSafe App data, and the State with the most substantial documented infection rate (NSW) “has had issues integrating it into the existing contact-tracing method.” In addition to the incapacity of States to process the data, many smartphones can’t run the CovidSafe App. The Guardian reports, “there are no plans to make it work on phones operating older software than iOS 10 and Android 6.0.” This is not a recent discovery, as we have known for some time that the tracing capacity is inoperative.

Risk Factors

The most significant risk is the public’s misunderstanding that it will keep them safe. That leads to complacency, which means people may ease their due diligence and not be so cautious about social distancing and washing their hands regularly. That is where it becomes dangerous.

To quote one woman I interacted with recently on social media said, “I have the app because l want to be notified if l have come into contact with a positive person and get tested ASAP.” The App was never even conceived to be a buzzer that alerts you to positive people nearby. Perceptions like that actually make it dangerous! Not only does it not keep you ”safe,” but it also has the potential to increase the risk of infection through complacency. The Government has been negligent in educating the public not only to what it is supposed to do, but what are the limits of the physics of radio waves and statistical probability.

 

People’s misunderstanding of how the App works leads to risk taking.

Alternately?

Instead of focusing on a dysfunctional App, perhaps we should be following the examples of Iceland, South Korea, Germany, or our neighbour New Zealand and upscaling randomised asymptomatic testing or regular testing for critical workers. All the success stories of countries handling the virus have the common thread that testing was crucial.

Conclusion

The App is not a panacea for tracing infection. It is a placebo to placate the masses who are too technically illiterate to understand the nuances and limitations of technology, by an incompetent Government that focuses on misunderstood technology at the expense of more robust asymptomatic testing of Australians.

 

Unfit for purpose? Gov’t or App?

This article was originally published on Australia Awaken – Ignite your Torches.

 

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Seeking the Post-COVID Sunshine: Time to Turn Consensus from the W.H.O. Assembly into a Political Charade?

By Denis Bright

The W.H.O. Assembly reached a remarkable consensus on the need to investigate the spread of COVID-19. Australia co-sponsored the initiatives at the Assembly as part of a team effort by thirty-five other players, including the European Union with its twenty-seven additional states.

Regrettably, this achievement received far less attention than the evolving war of words between Australia and China. Australia was a loyal player in the Trump Administration’s efforts to marginalise Chinese influence across the Indo-Pacific Basin.

Australia’s Defence Connect (20 May 2020) called for even greater loyalty to the US Global Alliance from Australia in this time of crisis over the spread of COVID-19:

“It is Australia’s indispensable relationship, the core of our national security and the key enabler, that has allowed Australia to freely engage and prosper within the post-Second World War order. However, in an era of mounting great power competition and disruption, the US-Australia relationship will become ever more important, explains retired Army officer Jason Thomas.”

Now to earlier reports in Defence Connect (24 April 2020) on Australia’s involvement in joint patrols in the South China Sea with US naval vessels.

“The Royal Australian Navy frigate HMAS Parramatta (FFG 154) began sailing with Ticonderoga Class guided missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill (CG 52) then rendezvoused with amphibious assault ship USS America (LHA 6) and Arleigh-Burke Class guided missile destroyer USS Barry (DDG 52) on 18 April.

Their combined operations started with force integration training and manoeuvring exercises between Parramatta and Bunker Hill.

Captain Kurt Sellerberg, Commanding Officer of the USS Bunker Hill, welcomed the opportunity to operate with the Royal Australian Navy again, saying, “It is great to be operating with the Australians again. Every time I have deployed to this region, and to the Middle East, I have had the good fortune to operate with the Royal Australian Navy.”

Operations with USS America started with a precision manoeuvres that included Barry in the South China Sea.

Rear Admiral Fred Kacher, Commander of the America Expeditionary Strike Group, said, “We look forward to every opportunity we get to work with our stalwart Australian allies at sea.

“To bring this much combat capability together here in the South China Sea truly signals to our allies and partners in the region that we are deeply committed to a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

Operations with Parramatta have included integrated live fire exercises, co-ordinated helicopter operations, small boat force protection drills, command and control integration, and manoeuvring interoperability.”

Only political insiders could explain the apparent contrasts between operations on the high seas and the productive diplomacy at the W.H.O. Assembly. Here are key clauses from the resolution which was carried unanimously and without amendment.

OP9.10 Initiate, at the earliest appropriate moment, and in consultation with Member States, 1 a stepwise process of impartial, independent and comprehensive evaluation, including using existing mechanisms, 2 as appropriate, to review experience gained and lessons learned from the WHO-coordinated international health response to COVID-19, including:

(i) the effectiveness of the mechanisms at WHO’s disposal;

(ii) the functioning of the IHR and the status of implementation of the relevant recommendations of the previous IHR Review Committees;

(iii) WHO’s contribution to United Nations-wide efforts; and (iv) the actions of WHO and their timelines pertaining to the COVID-19 pandemic, and make recommendations to improve global pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response capacity, including through strengthening, as appropriate, WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme;

OP9.11 Report to the Seventy-fourth World Health Assembly, through the 148th session of the Executive Board, on the implementation of this resolution.

OP9.9 Ensure that the Secretariat is adequately resourced to support the Member States granting of regulatory approvals needed to enable timely and adequate COVID-19 countermeasures.

How can Australians understand the gyrations in our defence and foreign policies? Here are two contradictory explanations.

Tentative Explanation 1: Australia wanted to act as an honest independent country in coming to terms with the horrific spread of COVID-19 as the number of cases approaches 5 million with an extra 4,500 deaths each day recently and a total death toll of almost 350,000. It was clearly within Australia’s strategic and commercial interests to cool the war of words between the Trump Administration and China. So much of Australia’s recent prosperity since the election of John Howard in 1996 was indeed due to the rise of China with its positive benefits for Australia from profitable trade in commodities and services with China as well as substantial net investment from China in the Australian economy:

Tentative Explanation 2: Australia was acting as a staunch ally of the Trump Administration to fester the war of words between the USA and China in the longer-term. President Trump would indeed use this war of words to appeal to his support base across the USA to maintain his hold on the votes from the Electoral College on 3 November 2020 as in the previous presidential election in 2016:

The two Tentative Explanations are of course not mutually exclusive. Should President Trump gain his cherished second term, his administration will certainly be on the offensive against a rise in the global strategic influence of China.

Reporters Julian Borger and Alison Rourke in The Guardian (19 May 2019) support this foreboding about our future in such a staunch political, economic and strategic alliance with the USA under current Australia United States Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) protocols which make Australia a virtual 51st state:

“Donald Trump has threatened to cut funding to the World Health Organization permanently and even pull the US out of the global body altogether unless it makes “major substantive improvements” which the president did not explain.

In a four-page letter to the WHO director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Trump claimed the organisation had shown an “alarming lack of independence” from China and accused Tedros of presiding over “repeated missteps … that have been extremely costly for the world”. The letter, he said, followed a US investigation into the WHO’s “failed response to the Covid-19 outbreak”.

Trump’s threat came on the day the WHO member states met for the first day of a two-day virtual assembly. Tedros had invited both Trump and Xi Jinping to speak, in the hope of resolving differences between the two leaders on handling the outbreak, but Trump did not take part.”

Commitment to a Space Warfare Agenda will be a crucial strategic initiative if President Trump is re-elected. This will require a network of ground stations in both global hemispheres including parts of the expanding NATO network across Europe where ties are being strengthened with countries like Georgia, the Ukraine and Poland.

Our own Pine Gap Base near Alice Springs will have a vital role to play in President Trump’s Space Warfare Agendas after 2021.

Sustainable peace across the Southern Hemisphere is still compromised by blind-spots in the UN Treaty arrangements to promote collective peace and security for our Indo-Pacific Basin. Can submarines bearing nuclear weapons transit across the oceans from Atlantic Ports in the USA to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and then move through the stormy waters of the Southern Ocean to cross the Pacific Ocean?

Although most countries have ratified the Outer Space Treaty (OST) of 1967, there are still grey areas in the protective cover available. This permits accurate targeting of military vessels in transit across the various Southern Oceans from surveillance bases like Pine Gap in Australia.

Monitoring of expanded geospatial surveillance is surely consistent with the need to monitor pandemic threats with power to assess new initiatives in surveillance from satellites in an era of renewed great power rivalry.

The Cold Fleet Report from the Royal Navy has been around for four years. There has been little discussion of the cost of Australia’s involvement in military initiatives to support geospatial surveillance of the windswept and dangerous oceans to the south of Australia.

A future federal LNP national government is likely to be highly enthusiastic about Australia’s involvement in US Space Warfare Programmes.

The appeal of a return to our traditional role as the Deputy Sheriff to any Republican Administration in the White House will be almost irresistible to future LNP Governments seeking a higher profile for Australia in the global strategic profile of the USA.

However, the possibilities of a more independent role for Australia in the Indo Pacific Basin should be just as irresistible. The surprising level of consensus-building at the W.H.O. Assembly could be extended to strategic policies. Trillions could be saved in expenditure on future space warfare programmes if nuclear weapons free zones were extended and perhaps the role of the Pine Gap Base transferred to the protection of these new treaty obligations.

Ironically, it is the US which is ready to take advantage of Chinese embargoes on the export of Australian commodities, services and more open Chinese investment (AFR 15 May 2020):

“China is preparing to slap steep tariffs on Australian barley imports after an 18-month anti-dumping investigation. China also this week suspended beef exports from four Australian abattoirs.

“US barley products have similar quality levels to Australian barley which is replaceable. It is a shame that Australia is losing its competitive advantage in beef and barley,” said Lin Guofa, an analyst with consulting firm Bric Agriculture Group.

“The suspension of the four abattoirs is designed to send a strong signal to deter Chinese traders to import beef from Australia. Most buyers will be fearful now about continuing their business with Australia.”

Commodities traders and state media played up the barley announcement, saying it highlighted China was less dependent on Australian agricultural imports than it used to be.

China has indirectly threatened to punish Australia economically after the Morrison government called for an independent inquiry into the origins of coronavirus pandemic.

One trader quoted a Chinese idiom “Kill the chicken to scare the monkey” which means making an example out of someone to threaten others. “With barley and beef, China is now using Australia as an example (to threaten other countries),” he said.”

However, on a positive note in the interests of our commercial and strategic relationships with the USA, there is a possibility that the USA will want to raise the banner of modernism to overcome the excesses of the Trump era. I am too remote from the USA to call the outcomes of the presidential elections on 3 November 2020, still several months before the actual event.

With Bob Dylan’s 79th Birthday approaching on 24 May 2020, Australians need to ask for real paradigm changes that distance our country from the eccentricities of the Trump Administration relating to both global action on COVID-19 and his future strategic plans to involve Australia in future space wars programmes.

The old folk song for more peaceful agendas is even more relevant today than in 1963 when it was recorded before President Kennedy’s assassination and released the following year.

Australia is being hurt commercially by its growing antagonism towards China, our best and most profitable trading partner. What is going on behind the scenes in the corridors of power in Canberra in the halls of the Defence and Foreign Affairs Departments to justify this wanton folly to protect US interests across the Indo-Pacific Basin?

Surely, the Trump Administration with the support of the Department of State and the Pentagon can fight their own battles with China. So, what is the real payoff for Australia in these difficult times? And if the war games in the South China Sea go astray, are Australians instantly at war with China through the chain of command in these joint patrols?

Denis Bright (pictured) is a financial member of the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA). Denis is committed to consensus-building in these difficult times. Your feedback from readers advances the cause of citizens’ journalism. Full names are not required when making comments. However, a valid email must be submitted if you decide to hit the Replies Button.

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