By Denis Bright

In the populist traditions of the federal LNP, the political ascendancy of Scott Morrison is being steered along by most of the mainstream media as transformative generational change. All this is a good spin on the most dramatic political week in Australia since The Dismissal of 1975.

As the veteran of Operation Sovereign Borders, Prime Minister Scott Morrison now invites community consultation in a renewed Governing for Us Phase. This has been a catch-phrase of most federal LNP governments since 1949.

Let’s revisit some of its key foundations which have been set in concrete since the Menzies Era. Scott Morrison will continue work within this flexible framework in the best traditions of Menzies’ radio address to The Forgotten People on 22 May 1942.

This initial appeal to mainstream Australians to defeat the Labor Party gained little initial political traction in a wartime emergency. Japanese midget submarines caused havoc in Sydney Harbour just a few nights later (NSW Office of Environment and Heritage Online).

Freshly elected in 2013, Prime Minister Abbott would offer a lesson in bad diplomacy by declaring Japan as our “closest friend in Asia”. This was quite an affronting remark to many attendees at the East Asia Summit in Brunei (SMH Online 9 October 2013).

Ongoing Governing for Us Rhetoric

The federal LNP attempts to command the national respect by communicating with a strong rhetorical flourish. It is often populist in style and often directed at the foundations of Labor’s support base.

Despite high levels of market-led economic growth, Labor’s potential support base has been enlarged by a growing income divide.

Coalition government permits both conservative and moderate forces to use a differing style of communication for differently targeted communities. I noticed this in reporting on the differing style of LNP campaigning well-choreographed but unsuccessful campaigns for Braddon and Longman on 28 July 2018.

The moderate LNP wing still eulogises market ideology with varying degrees of liberalism at a personal level.

On one hand, there are new-found rights to sexual and personal identity in a more complex multi-cultural society.

This tolerance co-exists with the cruel liberalism of the workplace in lax labour laws, the drift towards regressive taxation, systematic tax avoidance as well as Scott Morrison’s own tax packages from the 2018 budget favouring corporate giants and elite families.

The conservative wings of the LNP are strong on Australian jingoism in migration policy, militarism and stocking up international tensions through subtle interference in the domestic politics of neighbouring countries such as PNG, Timor-Leste, Indonesia and Melanesia.

The Unifying Appeal of Market Ideology?

Commitment to market ideology remains the core foundation of the federal LNP. The quarterly economic growth rates of the Turnbull Era have been generally impressive.

Over-commitment to market ideology has been accompanied by inevitable social stresses.

Falling real wages for lower income workers co-exists with million-dollar median housing prices and social pressures to make impulsive purchases on credit. The latest smart phone is always so essential even if the good times are interrupted by faulty National Broadband Networks generated by cost-cutting in the delivery of new infrastructure since 2013.

The electorate is not particularly at ease with market ideology which was not the preferred option for federation era leaders. Now the real beneficiaries of discontent are the far-right parties and the conservative wings of both arms of the federal coalition.

As the leadership spill week dawned, the Ipsos Poll showed a 19 per cent primary vote for One Nation and other right-wing parties (Financial Review 20 August 2018).

Time for a Paler Version of Australian Jingoism?

Hopefully, the arrival of Scott Morrison will spare Australia from the worst excesses of a Peter Dutton prime ministership.

Comments from the Chinese Foreign Ministry come as a hopeful sign that some sweeteners are ahead in our productive economic relationships with China:

Beijing is looking forward to developing a good relationship with Australia’s new Prime Minister Scott Morrison, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said.

“We congratulate him on his election,” the spokesman said, answering a question from The Australian.

“China’s policy towards the relationship with Australia has always been consistent and clear”.

“A healthy and stable relationship is not only good for the two countries but also good for the regional and global peace, stability and prosperity.

“We look forward to working together with Australia to further develop the relationship in the right direction.”

The comments come as relations between Australia and China came under new pressure following the federal Government’s decision to effectively ban Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei from supplying equipment for Australia’s 5G network.

China did not comment on the infighting which led to the resignation of Malcolm Turnbull, but the election of Scott Morrison as his successor paves the way for a better relationship with China than if former home affairs minister Peter Dutton had been elected.

China’s Global Times this week called Mr Dutton a “semi Trump” who had been described as a racist.

A Dutton government could have presented new challenges for the relationship given his more conservative stance.

As DFAT staff continue their splendid professional work, criticisms of the excesses of the Trump Administration are completely absent from speeches and press releases of even the more progressive Turnbull era ministers. However, even Scott Morrison had to be more sceptical about President Trump’s trade war strategies with China and Europe when pressed by journalists for impromptu comments.

Ministers from both factions of the federal LNP always eulogise the Trump Administration in public. US and associated allied intelligence services would be aware of their real private opinions. Living Beyond the Pale carries new meaning in an electronic age.

Attending the annual meeting of the policy arm of the Australia United States Ministerial Council (AUSMIN) both Julie Bishop and Marise Payne offered crucial support to the Trump Administration at a door-stop interview in Palo Alto, California:

JULIE BISHOP: Well if you look back over the last 18 months we have a very strong working relationship with the Trump Administration. We have had that from the outset. We are in constant contact with the Trump Administration, with the White House and we’re working very closely with all levels of government and we’re seeing the results of that very close cooperation. The Prime Minister has a good working relationship with President Trump—they speak often. I know Marise speaks often to her counterpart Secretary Mattis, and I’ve developed a very strong friendship with Secretary Pompeo. So we’re continuing to work closely on a whole range of issues. The importance of this Australia-US Ministerial meeting was that we were able to articulate areas of cooperation and collaboration, as Marise said. We have a joint work program that Australia and the United States is working on together to achieve peace and further prosperity in our region. So it’s a very close and deep relationship at the moment.

Minister Payne was keen to deepen strategic relationships with the US Global Alliance at the AUSMIN Forum:

MARISE PAYNE: This has been a very productive couple of days with Secretary Mattis and Secretary Pompeo. Both of them opened their remarks with observations about 100 years of mateship. So that message about the depth, the history and the breadth of the alliance is not lost on any of us in the engagements we’ve had over the past two days. They’ve been very valuable opportunities to talk around cooperation, collaboration, particularly the work that we do together military to military both in the region, here in the United States and more broadly. We’re of course both engaged in key missions in Iraq and in Afghanistan. The United States is very supportive of our engagement in the Philippines, particularly in terms of our counter-terrorism work after the siege of Marawi last year. So the opportunity to consolidate those efforts of cooperation and collaboration, develop further habits of cooperation, as we were reminded is a very important one, and it’s certainly one we’ve taken advantage of in the last two days.

This cosy rhetoric from two of Australia’s key leaders makes the path towards a more independent Australia extremely difficult in the future. What can be done to smooth the path towards a more independent Australia under the just announced ministerial mix?

Barriers to Change Ahead

During a likely honeymoon period of the Morrison Government, political progressives on both sides of the aisles could assist in defusing the perennial divisive issues facing a relatively successful market economy.

Alternatives to budgetary debt levels, energy transition problems, Trump Era trading and investment strategies need public discussion with the support of parliamentary committees and academic think-tanks of varying persuasions.

Administrative law changes to raise the standard for the registration of fringe parties and their ruthless use of the preferential voting system can attract some bipartisan support.

An early federal election needs to be anticipated. This would eliminate the need for by-elections in Wentworth and other key seats.

Should Bill Shorten become Prime Minister, the remnants of the conservative wings of the federal LNP can be expected to re-emerge with a vengeance.

Tony Abbott made real headway against the Rudd Government as it struggled with the worst days of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Like Robert Menzies of old in 1942, Tony Abbott showed scant concern for Australia’s recovery from the GFC.

While mainstream leaders may have overlooked the need for independent foreign policies, the value of Australia as a captive strategic ally has not been overlooked by the Trump Administration. Our future within the US global alliance has been well defined at a recent meeting of the US Chamber of Commerce’s Indo-Pacific Forum in Washington DC on 30 July 2018:

Key members of the Trump administration, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Energy Secretary Rick Perry, will address the US Chamber of Commerce’s Indo-Pacific Forum on Monday (Monday 11.30pm AEST).

Pompeo will deliver a keynote speech titled “America’s Indo-Pacific Economic Vision”.

It comes as the region braces for a potential US-China trade war, Trump slapping tariffs on allies and his pursuit of bilateral trade deals with Japan and other nations after pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Pompeo flagged the importance of the US Chamber of Commerce speech at last week’s annual Australia-US Ministerial (AUSMIN) meetings in California with US Defense Secretary General James Mattis, Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop and Defence Minister Marise Payne.

The return of an All the Way with the USA Formula under the Trump Administration takes Australia back to the Cold War Strategies of the 1950s with added financial commitment by Australia for the defence equipment needed for the military containment of our most profitable trading and investment partner.

The need for political mobilisation in Australia has never been greater. In this fractured political environment, the old progressive commitment to become more politically active might be diverted by campaigns from the Greens to defeat Labor members in inner-city electorates.

Working for change within Labor is surely a more productive outlet for political activists if the minority status of the Gillard Government is to be avoided.