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Be a 2016 Budget winner

In two weeks Treasurer Scott Morrison will hand down his first Budget. The mainstream media has started hurling speculation at us as to what it might or might not contain, but at this early stage we can be totally certain of just two things: there will be another deficit and the average punter will miss out (again).

But you can still be a winner.

With thanks to the generosity of an anonymous AIMN donour we are awarding prizes to the closest guesses of how much the deficit will be. If you guess the deficit or are the nearest to it, the first prize of $250 is all yours. Second prize is $150, and third place gets $100.

In the event of a draw, the prize will be awarded to the earliest entry.

You may submit a maximum of four entries, however each entry must be submitted separately, which you can do via the comments section below.

The competition is open to everybody and will close as soon as the deficit is announced by Scott Morrison on Budget night, May 3.

What will be in the Budget? Apart from what the media is teasing us about here has been speculation it will be an ‘election Budget’, in other words it might have a bit of ‘vote buying’ in it somewhere. And will it address the debt the government has been bemoaning about since winning office but done nothing about? Time will tell.

So start researching and start guessing. You have plenty of time, however the earliest you can get your answer in – the better are your chances of winning. Then again, the later you get your answers in and the Budget leaks are making the news – so too do you have a better chance of winning.

Tricky, isn’t it?

The winners will be announced the day after the Budget is handed down, and the lucky people will be contacted via the email address they supplied with their comments.

Good luck, everyone.

 

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43 comments

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  1. kerri

    My guess would be to ask John Kelly?

  2. John Kelly

    Thank you Kerri. What the budget brings down in two weeks will be a deficit. Whatever it is, it will be less than the final outcome 12 months from now. With the promise of a few tax hikes redistributed in full it’s hard to see it under $40 Billion.

  3. Owen

    The deficit is the LNP ‘s Humanity integrity honesty and transparency. ..you can make the cheque out to the Aimn…..

  4. Garth

    B$40.41
    I’ve based this on their performance to date (along with a little adjustment for their performance going south).

  5. Wally

    $36 Billion – being an election year they will understate it in an attempt to make themselves look good.

  6. David Stakes

    $42billion is my guess, but still contains ficticious savings not passed. so could be closer to $50billion.

  7. corvus boreus

    My bet is that the next budget will be writ large in crayon pictographs and mumbled in the indecipherable gibberish of ‘tongues’.

  8. kerri

    Well said Owen!
    And a bit of happy clapping hey Corvus?

  9. billshaw2013

    A Coles/Woolies price of $39.99b. My winnings donated to Aimn.

  10. RosemaryJ36

    My estimate is $45.4 billion and please keep the winnings.

  11. wam

    wow the shiftiest treasurer since hockey will swear on the bible, that hadley left for him under the seat that his budget will be the truth and the deficit will be higher than expected because of the independent problem in the senate and labor. It will be hard to keep it under 40 billion but the clever grocer has cornered the market so it looks like $40b for me. However turnball’s bible is in the bank so he may promulgate a huge lie.

  12. jamess

    My intuitive suggestion is 41.6 billion, and keep the cash.

  13. margcal

    They can lie better than anyone so far has admitted – I say $27.2B and you keep the money please.

  14. Gangey1959

    Are we quoting on an Australian Made budget with triangle logo on the box to prove it, or will we get a north of the equator cheapasshitbutwhenitdoesn’tworkproperlybringitbackwefixnoworries fta version that is sooooo effing good for all of us in the cheap seats? Either way moronscum wouldn’t have a clue which way to hold up the pages when he ‘reads’ it out, or at least shows us his pretty pictures that he drawed while wifey cooked his din-dins and he played in the crayon tin.
    $45.5 B.
    just leave the money on the fridge.

  15. Greg Rapmund

    I have it on good authority that the LNP fiscal brains trust drafted Barnaby (I’m a country member) Joyce into the fold, gave him a pencil, paper and a calculator and he assured the cabinet that the figure of eleventy gazillions is what the deficit will be

  16. Michael Taylor

    Seeing that I’m one of the three people that will be ineligible to enter this competition, I will do do something ridiculous like predict a surplus. Given that when they won government the Coalition was bragging that they’ll have a return to surplus quicker than you can tie your shoe laces up, I’m predicting that the Morrison budget will deliver a surplus of $11.11B. I’ll be gobsmacked if it ends up being the closest guess.

  17. Kaye Lee

    I’m going $34.9 billion

  18. Pilot

    I believe that ScoMo has lost all sense of reality and he will deliver a deficit of 31.1bill.

    Fair bloody dinkum this mob of corporate cowboys and yesmen are kidding themselves.

    Keep the $$, don’t wanna put in on my tax return…..

  19. townsvilleblog

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-17/almost-600-companies-did-not-pay-tax-in-2013-14/7036324 . One measure I’m sure will not be in the budget is to put a floor of 20% under the corporate tax system so that all companies cannot pay less than 20% of their gross income like the most poorly paid working people have to. It would increase govt revenue without increasing the tax rate, corporatre tax rate is 30% this idea would be lowering it to 20% with the catch that they “all” had to pay the 20%, Treasurer Hockey told us that we “all’ must contribute, so could someone tell me what is wrong with my idea, other than the tories would never do it?

  20. Kaye Lee

    townsvilleblog,

    Charging tax on gross income cannot work. As I have said before, my business sales are over $1 million. So are my costs for stock, wages, superannuation, rent, insurance, training etc. The difference between the two is around $120,000 but if I had to pay 20% on sales I would be paying more than $200,000 in tax even though hubby and I only get about $60,000 each pre-tax. I would be bankrupt and my employees would be out of a job.

  21. Möbius Ecko

    Everyone here does know that whatever figure they give with be baloney? So how can a winner be chosen if the real figure is not known.

  22. Geoff Andrews

    You bastard, Taylor!
    While I was reading your article then the comments, MY guess was going to be a surplus.
    Interesting to speculate: Morrison is probably going through the same exercise as your readers at this very moment.
    “How small can I make the deficit? It’s got to be smaller than Hocker’s and Swanny Rivers, let’s say $19.9 billion – yeah that sounds about right; then we can always refer to it as a $10 billion deficit.”
    Why not offer Morrison the whole $500 if he can get the correct answer in by next week.

  23. Signe

    lol if the LNP use the same acountant as Livo Council did turning a $280m backlog into $80m (being both Lib dominated) I’m guessing their 45+b will come in at 12.25b after seasonally adjusted fiscally manufactured and ’cause ScoMo said so and btw we’re heading to an election data analysis and KPMG man told me how to fix the budget.

  24. diannaart

    The answer is:

    42

    (someone had to say it)

  25. Anomander

    $28.5 billion defecit is my guess at their target – the winning to be reinvested in AIMN. The truth will be closer to $55 billion because of the insane need to build redundant military weaponry and stopping the boats.

    Their excuse will still be an impossible task “fixing Labor’s mess”.

    They will make claims about recovering $15 billion tackling corporate tax avoidance but they will do nothing.
    Family tax allowances will take a slug.
    Super concession changes will be touted but never come to fruition because the super industry will crush them.
    Smokes will cop a huge increase, despite the fact the sponsor the IPA.
    More cuts to health, education and science.
    Bigger plans to privatise what is left of the NBN.
    Further cuts to foreign aid.

  26. JeffJL

    Just to annoy Michael Taylor – $11.12B surplus.

    I am confident that, just like there are no children in detention, the LNP will be able to re-define spending to be an asset.

    And I will take the money thanks.

  27. Slapsy

    They have never been known to tell the truth,so Morrison will want it to look better than it really is.

    My guess is $21.5 billion.Any fool knows that.

  28. Möbius Ecko

    Hope people here have factored in the announcement yesterday that this government has significantly moved forward two major ship building contracts for Defence. One to start in SA in 2018 and the other WA in 2020.

    The only purpose of this is to save the necks of both Pyne and Barnett, most especially Pyne. His on a hiding and they are desperate to save his seat no matter what the cost.

    Even though the construction is two years away for the OPVs, moving the date forward has also moved the start of the spending forward.

  29. Pappinbarra Fox

    I am predicting a Headline budget deficit of 1.634 billion dollars. And don’t keep the money – I want it donated to the Bronnie Retirement Fund – so she can afford to buy the best kerosene for her baths in the nursing home.

  30. jim

    I lose by default as I’m allergic to anything LNP so thought I’d give us all a link to the Better economic managers 2013 style… ;……ACCORDING TO THE LINE flogged relentlessly for the last six years by the federal Coalition and the mainstream media, the Howard-Costello years – 1996 to 2007 – were a period of wonderful money management.

    “The Government of John Howard now looks like a lost golden age of reform and prosperity” is a favourite Tony Abbott mantra.

    Like countless propositions repeated ad nauseum by Australia’s media, the opposite is the truth. In fact, the Howard years are widely regarded outside Australia as dismally disappointing.

    Or, according to some, like veteran economics writer Kenneth Davidson:……..link..https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/we-really-must-talk-about-the-howard-and-costello-economic-disaster,5686 and…….”What has happened under Costello’s watch is a major financial disaster.”

  31. The Written Word

    As it was roughly around 37/38b in December 2015, just for fun I’ll have a guess too and say 41b.

  32. wam

    listening to on cyber crime confirms the lie I think this crook government will lie down to 32.5

  33. totaram

    Frankly, it is better to guess at where the cuts will come. Remember, every increase in “spending” (they refuse to call it investment, because if you compare with a company’s Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account everything would be exposed), has to be balanced by “cuts” to other spending. So we can play these games until the cows come home. The “budget deficit” is truly irrelevant, except for the supporters of the coalition who argue in those neo-liberal terms. The rest of us should know what really matters.

    I’ve just bought the Textbook by Bill Mitchell et. al on Kindle and would rather be reading that. Cheers!

  34. Ryan H

    33.2b, DD election closing fast, gotta cook the books a bit.

  35. Michael Taylor

    Something in the news this morning about a bit of a blowout predicted. So don’t forget you can have up to four guesses.

  36. Carol Taylor

    Whatever the final total, it’s all going to be Labor’s fault.

  37. Michael Taylor

    Yes indeed, Caol. And I’m wondering how many times Labor will be blamed for something in the Budget speech. I’m guessing – as a nice round number – 100.

  38. Erinnn

    43.2b 🙂

  39. neville clark

    i am guessing whichever way it goes it will be a lie!

  40. Judi Griffith

    I believe that it will be $49B if the truth be told….keep the winnings AIMN……

  41. keerti

    because this government is staffed (I was going to say run by, but realised the wrongness..) by a bunch of great economic managers, it will be forward looking to create and maintain security for generations to come. It will remove unfair taxation burdens and put them where they belong. As result corporations will be taxed and their books thoroughly examined (saving$20bn), negative gearing will be removed (saving $10 bn), excessive working conditions of polititians removed ($10m), a further optional amount can be saved by requiring polititians to enter a time card for recording work hours, decreasing for meeting times over meals you can’t think and stuff your face at the same time!. mining compensation will be paid on a per ton basis (you mine our minerals, you pay for them!) (saving $26 billion), corporate welfare $1000bn +-, stopping the abuse of refugees and applying intelligent resettling programs (Saving $40bn) ,. The efect of this will be to save well in excess of $140bn which will be aplied to resources for the homeless, support for refugees, research into education, a guaranteed living wage for all. That should leave $40 bn in the black. Of course as the worst managers this country has ever known the above won’t happen. Education and human welfare will be cut, taxes for corporations will be cut, polititians will keep finding ways to fly around in helicopters (hopefully one of them will stand up when exiting!), and the true deficit will be $60bn ( if these figures don’t add up, it’s not my fault and if that logic leaves you wondering, I’ve been listening to polititians for too long. The claimed deficit will be $41.5bn. Please put the money towards a rowing boat for polititians leaving the wreckage of australia to go to New Zealand.

  42. The AIM Network

    We can announce the winners:

    1st – Wally
    2nd – Kaye Lee
    3rd – billshaw2013

    We’ll be in touch with the winners shortly.

  43. Wally

    Happy to donate my winnings back to the AIMN.

    Thanks for running the competition it is nice to be a winner.

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